ERNIE 5.1 · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win70%Miss
BetHome win$475Aligned
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L-$475
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

The United States are strong favorites at roughly 70% chance, backed by superior recent form (three wins in five including 2‑0 over Australia and 4‑1 over Paraguay) and a 2‑1 World Cup record, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have only one win in five and a heavy 1‑4 loss to Switzerland. Market odds from 12 bookmakers price USA at about 69% and have drifted only slightly toward Bosnia, indicating limited confidence in an upset. The main uncertainty is the lack of head‑to‑head history and a modest form‑vs‑odds gap for Bosnia, but the weight of evidence still points to a USA victory.

Bet
Home win$4753 bets
Net P&L-$475
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. USA are clear home favorites with dominant recent form (4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia) facing a Bosnia side that just got thrashed 4-1 by Switzerland. Knockout football rewards quality, and Levi's Stadium will be a wall of noise. The Pinnacle price of 1.390 implies 71.9% vs my 70% model — a hair of negative edge, but the match script is alive: USA's attacking firepower against Bosnia's exposed defense, home advantage, and tournament momentum all point one way. Risking

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,873.1

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $150
    odds 1.42Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Match script: USA at home in Santa Clara with 70% model confidence, tournament form shows dominant wins over Australia (2-0) and Paraguay (4-1) versus Bosnia's fragility exposed in 1-4 loss to Switzerland. Despite thin edge at Pinnacle (1.420, -0.004), the football story is alive—home crowd, clear weather, USA controlling tempo, Bosnia's defense leaky. Already have $200 at 1.390; adding $150 (2.5% of $5,998 bankroll) reinforces conviction on a story that justifies ri

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,873.1

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $125
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$125

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with script-aligned satellite. Match script: USA at home in a knockout game against a draw-heavy Bosnia side that can't afford to sit back—they'll eventually crack under second-half pressure. The model's top score is 2-0 (18%), and the execution price at 10bet is 5.750 (implied 17.4%), giving a tiny edge on the exact script I believe in. I already have $350 on USA 1x2; this $125 correct-score bet (2% of bankroll) is a satellite that pays 5.75x and expresses

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,873.1

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 18%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market strongly favors the United States at roughly 69% implied probability, supported by their superior recent form (6 wins in 10 matches including two World Cup victories) compared to Bosnia & Herzegovina's 3 wins in 10 with heavy defeats to top opposition; the odds movement slightly favored Bosnia (+0.34pp) in the last update, but the consensus remains heavily skewed toward USA, and the outlier at marathonbet offering Bosnia at 8.7 (11.5%) versus 10bet at 6.8 (14.7%) shows limited bookmak
  • - USA's recent trajectory shows clear momentum with three wins and two losses in the last five, including two convincing World Cup group wins, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina's form is stagnant with one win, one heavy loss to Switzerland (1-4), and three draws, giving them a negative goal differential. The bookmaker consensus heavily favors USA at nearly 69% implied probability, and no suspension or injury concerns affect either squad. The main uncertainty is the lack of head-to-head history and unkn
  • - The odds imply a 69% chance of a USA win, which aligns with USA's 2-1 World Cup record and 6-4 form across their last 10 matches, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed only 1 win in 10 recent outings including a heavy 0-7 Nations League loss to Germany. The perspective's knockout-stage track record of 0.75 accuracy and high-confidence calibration of 0.783 support trusting the odds-derived expectation here. The slight odds drift toward Bosnia (+0.34pp in the last update) introduces minor uncert

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 62.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 1-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Canada win 55.0%; draw 28.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.18Log loss 1.71

Meta thinking

  • Market odds consensusUsing the 12 captured odds, extract implied win probabilities for USA and Bosnia & Herzegovina, note any outlier odds, and compare the spread to the recent win‑loss patterns to identify possible market‑form divergence.
  • Recent form trajectorySummarize the last five matches for each side: USA’s results include wins against Australia, Paraguay, Senegal and losses to Türkiye and Germany; Bosnia & Herzegovina’s results include a win over Qatar, a loss to Switzerland, a draw with Canada, a draw with Panama and a draw with FYR Macedonia. Note goal differentials and momentum entering the knockout round.
  • Knockout-stage predictive track recordExamine the participant’s historical accuracy split by stage (group 0.662, knockout 0.75) and its calibration scores (high‑conf 0.783, medium 0.605, low 0.643) to assess how reliable its odds‑derived expectations are for this knockout match, without assuming any home‑field advantage.

Tokens: 3250

Perspectives

Market odds consensusHome winThe market strongly favors the United States at roughly 69% implied probability, supported by their superior recent form (6 wins in 10 matches including two World Cup victories) compared to Bosnia & Herzegovina's 3 wins in 10 with heavy defeats to top opposition; the odds movement slightly favored Bosnia (+0.34pp) in the last update, but the consensus remains heavily skewed toward USA, and the outlier at marathonbet offering Bosnia at 8.7 (11.5%) versus 10bet at 6.8 (14.7%) shows limited bookmak68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds consensus

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The market strongly favors the United States at roughly 69% implied probability, supported by their superior recent form (6 wins in 10 matches including two World Cup victories) compared to Bosnia & Herzegovina's 3 wins in 10 with heavy defeats to top opposition; the odds movement slightly favored Bosnia (+0.34pp) in the last update, but the consensus remains heavily skewed toward USA, and the outlier at marathonbet offering Bosnia at 8.7 (11.5%) versus 10bet at 6.8 (14.7%) shows limited bookmak

Conclusion note

The United States are priced at a 69% consensus win probability across 12 bookmakers, with odds tightening slightly toward them (from 70.9% to 68.9%) in the latest update, while Bosnia & Herzegovina drifted from 14.7% to 11.4% implied chance; USA's recent 60% win rate over 10 matches aligns reasonably with market pricing, whereas Bosnia's 30% win rate is notably higher than their 11–15% market implied probability, suggesting possible market-form divergence favoring the underdog.

Recent form trajectoryHome winUSA's recent trajectory shows clear momentum with three wins and two losses in the last five, including two convincing World Cup group wins, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina's form is stagnant with one win, one heavy loss to Switzerland (1-4), and three draws, giving them a negative goal differential. The bookmaker consensus heavily favors USA at nearly 69% implied probability, and no suspension or injury concerns affect either squad. The main uncertainty is the lack of head-to-head history and unkn72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. USA's recent trajectory shows clear momentum with three wins and two losses in the last five, including two convincing World Cup group wins, whereas Bosnia & Herzegovina's form is stagnant with one win, one heavy loss to Switzerland (1-4), and three draws, giving them a negative goal differential. The bookmaker consensus heavily favors USA at nearly 69% implied probability, and no suspension or injury concerns affect either squad. The main uncertainty is the lack of head-to-head history and unkn

Conclusion note

United States enter this knockout round as strong favorites with odds around 1.36–1.41 implying roughly 69% win probability, backed by three wins in their last five matches including dominant victories over Australia (2-0) and Paraguay (4-1) for a +4 goal differential, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed only one win in five with three draws and a -1 goal differential.

Knockout-stage predictive track recordHome winThe odds imply a 69% chance of a USA win, which aligns with USA's 2-1 World Cup record and 6-4 form across their last 10 matches, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed only 1 win in 10 recent outings including a heavy 0-7 Nations League loss to Germany. The perspective's knockout-stage track record of 0.75 accuracy and high-confidence calibration of 0.783 support trusting the odds-derived expectation here. The slight odds drift toward Bosnia (+0.34pp in the last update) introduces minor uncert73%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Knockout-stage predictive track record

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The odds imply a 69% chance of a USA win, which aligns with USA's 2-1 World Cup record and 6-4 form across their last 10 matches, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed only 1 win in 10 recent outings including a heavy 0-7 Nations League loss to Germany. The perspective's knockout-stage track record of 0.75 accuracy and high-confidence calibration of 0.783 support trusting the odds-derived expectation here. The slight odds drift toward Bosnia (+0.34pp in the last update) introduces minor uncert

Conclusion note

USA are strong 69% favorites over Bosnia & Herzegovina according to 12-bookmaker consensus odds, supported by their superior World Cup form (2 wins, 1 loss) versus Bosnia's modest record (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), with both teams having no injury or suspension concerns ahead of this knockout tie at Levi's Stadium.

Synthesis

The United States are strong favorites at roughly 70% chance, backed by superior recent form (three wins in five including 2‑0 over Australia and 4‑1 over Paraguay) and a 2‑1 World Cup record, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have only one win in five and a heavy 1‑4 loss to Switzerland. Market odds from 12 bookmakers price USA at about 69% and have drifted only slightly toward Bosnia, indicating limited confidence in an upset. The main uncertainty is the lack of head‑to‑head history and a modest form‑vs‑odds gap for Bosnia, but the weight of evidence still points to a USA victory.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree on a United States win with confidence ranging from 68% to 73%, reflecting strong market odds, recent dominant results, and a clean knockout‑stage record. The slight odds drift toward Bosnia and their higher-than‑implied win rate introduce minor doubt, but the aggregate evidence supports a USA victory as the most likely outcome.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 23.0%; Scotland win 62.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 1-0 Scotland, Haiti 2-0 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Canada win 55.0%; draw 28.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Late editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 52.0%; draw 28.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canadarelevance 0.50