Claude Opus 4.8 · Germany vs Paraguay

GermanyvsParaguay
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win67%Miss
BetHome win$460Aligned
Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Net P&L-$460
PredictionConfidence: 67%
Home win

The United States are clear favorites at home against Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, with bookmakers pricing the hosts around 1.36 to 1.41 for an implied win probability near 68.9% versus only 11.4% for the visitors. The USA's attacking form, including a 4-1 win over Paraguay and a 2-0 win over Australia, outweighs Bosnia and Herzegovina's inconsistent run and their 1-4 loss to Switzerland. As a hypothesis, the hosts should carry the early pressure, though their defensive lapses against Türkiye and Germany mean Bosnia could threaten on the counter, so a 2-0 or 2-1 USA win looks the most likely path.

Bet
Home win$4603 bets
Net P&L-$460
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.39Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Favorite-conviction posture. Match script: USA are clear home favorites in a knockout round-of-32 at Levi's Stadium, backed by strong recent attacking form (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) against an inconsistent Bosnia side that shipped four to Switzerland and has drawn weaker friendlies. Model gives USA 67% and top scorelines all favor a USA win (2-0, 2-1, 1-0). The executable price (1.39) carries a small negative edge (-0.049) and the tiny positive edges on draw/away are razor-thin lon

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,677.65

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $100
    odds 1.42Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Model gives USA 67% win vs 12% for Bosnia, and the host has productive scoring form (4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia). Bosnia is draw-heavy and defensively leaky away (1-4 at Switzerland). Execution price 1.42 offers no positive edge, and best USA price 1.47 is essentially fair, so the pure value case is thin. I already hold $300 on side_a_win at 1.39; the match script (early home pressure, compact but vulnerable underdog) still supports the lean, so I add only a small t

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,677.65

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $60
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction expressed as a small correct-score satellite. I already hold $400 on USA at 1.39/1.42, so the value on the money-line is exhausted (model edge vs execution is negative at -0.039). The match script: USA are clear home favorites at Levi's, pressing early with strong scoring form (4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia), facing a Bosnia side that mostly draws or loses away and shipped four to Switzerland. Rather than adding to an already-priced 1x2 side, I take the model's top sco

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,677.65

Post-match result0-0, penalties 3-4
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 67%Draw 21%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The market shows a clear separation rather than a tight spread, with consensus implied probabilities of 68.9% for a USA win, 19.7% for a draw and only 11.4% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, and stable short prices around 1.36-1.41 for the hosts across 10bet, William Hill, bet365 and marathonbet. The minor movement (side A -0.35pp, side B +0.34pp between the two visible update times) is negligible and does not change the picture. USA are the schedule-listed home side at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara and
  • - The bookmaker consensus is heavily skewed toward United States at roughly 68.9% implied win probability versus just 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the recent form supports that lean: USA won two of their last five including a 4-1 over Paraguay and 2-0 over Australia and score freely at home, though they conceded three to Türkiye and two to Germany, so their defense is leaky. Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 but their run is draw-heavy with a 1-4 loss to Switzerland and a 1-1 draw wit
  • - The bookmaker consensus is heavily skewed toward the United States, with implied probabilities of roughly 68.9% for a USA win versus only 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 19.7% for the draw, and representative lines like William Hill (1.36) and bet365 (1.40) confirm a strong favorite. USA's recent form is uneven but includes convincing group results (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) while Bosnia and Herzegovina have been inconsistent, mixing a 3-1 win over Qatar with heavy losses such

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: sui bih group_b_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Switzerland win 60.0%; draw 24.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Switzerland 2-0 Bosnia &
  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Qatar win 17.0%; draw 25.0%; Switzerland win 58.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-2 Switzerland, Qatar 0-1 Switzer
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 52.0%; draw 27.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 21.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.09Log loss 1.56

Meta thinking

  • Market odds distributionExamine the 12 observed pre-match odds to gauge the implied probability spread across win, draw, and loss outcomes, and whether the market signals a tight or clear separation between the two sides.
  • Recent form and goal patternsCompare the last 5 results for both teams: USA's mixed World Cup and friendly record (wins over Australia, Paraguay, losses to Türkiye, Germany) versus Bosnia's draw-heavy run with one win over Qatar and a heavy loss to Switzerland; assess goals scored and conceded trends.
  • Home designation and venue contextAssess the value of the schedule-listed home designation and Levi's Stadium venue as context only, checking whether captured evidence supports any home relevance; treat any home-advantage assumption as weak given no h2h or venue-specific data is captured.

Tokens: 3241

Perspectives

Market odds distributionHome winThe market shows a clear separation rather than a tight spread, with consensus implied probabilities of 68.9% for a USA win, 19.7% for a draw and only 11.4% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, and stable short prices around 1.36-1.41 for the hosts across 10bet, William Hill, bet365 and marathonbet. The minor movement (side A -0.35pp, side B +0.34pp between the two visible update times) is negligible and does not change the picture. USA are the schedule-listed home side at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara and68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds distribution

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The market shows a clear separation rather than a tight spread, with consensus implied probabilities of 68.9% for a USA win, 19.7% for a draw and only 11.4% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, and stable short prices around 1.36-1.41 for the hosts across 10bet, William Hill, bet365 and marathonbet. The minor movement (side A -0.35pp, side B +0.34pp between the two visible update times) is negligible and does not change the picture. USA are the schedule-listed home side at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara and

Conclusion note

The 12 bookmaker samples price USA as clear favorites at roughly 1.36-1.41 with a 68.9% implied win probability versus 19.7% for the draw and just 11.4% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, signalling a wide rather than tight separation between the sides. USA's recent home group wins over Australia and Paraguay reinforce that lean, and while lineups, injuries and head-to-head data are not captured, the consistent short prices make a hosts' win the most defensible pick.

Recent form and goal patternsHome winThe bookmaker consensus is heavily skewed toward United States at roughly 68.9% implied win probability versus just 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the recent form supports that lean: USA won two of their last five including a 4-1 over Paraguay and 2-0 over Australia and score freely at home, though they conceded three to Türkiye and two to Germany, so their defense is leaky. Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 but their run is draw-heavy with a 1-4 loss to Switzerland and a 1-1 draw wit66%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and goal patterns

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The bookmaker consensus is heavily skewed toward United States at roughly 68.9% implied win probability versus just 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the recent form supports that lean: USA won two of their last five including a 4-1 over Paraguay and 2-0 over Australia and score freely at home, though they conceded three to Türkiye and two to Germany, so their defense is leaky. Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 but their run is draw-heavy with a 1-4 loss to Switzerland and a 1-1 draw wit

Conclusion note

United States are strong favorites at home against Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the market implying about a 68.9% win chance versus 11.4%, and USA's recent scoring form (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) outweighs Bosnia's draw-heavy run and 1-4 loss to Switzerland, though USA's defensive concessions to Türkiye and Germany and the absence of head-to-head data add some uncertainty.

Home designation and venue contextHome winThe bookmaker consensus is heavily skewed toward the United States, with implied probabilities of roughly 68.9% for a USA win versus only 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 19.7% for the draw, and representative lines like William Hill (1.36) and bet365 (1.40) confirm a strong favorite. USA's recent form is uneven but includes convincing group results (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) while Bosnia and Herzegovina have been inconsistent, mixing a 3-1 win over Qatar with heavy losses such66%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Home designation and venue context

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Fixture: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • USA: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • USA: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 68.9%, draw 19.7%, side B win 11.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T16:02:25Z -> 2026-06-30T20:02:39Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.35pp, draw +0.01pp, side B win +0.34pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.39 / draw 4.7 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.7 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.36 / draw 4.6 / side B 8 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.38 / draw 5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.7, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for USA:

    • 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Türkiye, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-19T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-13T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Portugal, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-15T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The bookmaker consensus is heavily skewed toward the United States, with implied probabilities of roughly 68.9% for a USA win versus only 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 19.7% for the draw, and representative lines like William Hill (1.36) and bet365 (1.40) confirm a strong favorite. USA's recent form is uneven but includes convincing group results (4-1 over Paraguay, 2-0 over Australia) while Bosnia and Herzegovina have been inconsistent, mixing a 3-1 win over Qatar with heavy losses such

Conclusion note

The market makes the United States a strong favorite over Bosnia and Herzegovina, with consensus implied probabilities near 68.9% for a USA win against 11.4% for the visitors and 19.7% for a draw, supported by short prices such as 1.36 to 1.41. USA's recent form and this alignment outweigh Bosnia and Herzegovina's inconsistent results, though the schedule-listed home tag at Levi's Stadium adds little given no captured head-to-head or venue-specific data.

Synthesis

The United States are clear favorites at home against Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, with bookmakers pricing the hosts around 1.36 to 1.41 for an implied win probability near 68.9% versus only 11.4% for the visitors. The USA's attacking form, including a 4-1 win over Paraguay and a 2-0 win over Australia, outweighs Bosnia and Herzegovina's inconsistent run and their 1-4 loss to Switzerland. As a hypothesis, the hosts should carry the early pressure, though their defensive lapses against Türkiye and Germany mean Bosnia could threaten on the counter, so a 2-0 or 2-1 USA win looks the most likely path.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree on a United States win, anchored by a bookmaker consensus of roughly 68.9% for the hosts against just 11.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with short and stable prices near 1.36 to 1.41. Recent form supports the lean as the USA scored freely in a 4-1 win over Paraguay and a 2-0 win over Australia, while Bosnia and Herzegovina have been inconsistent with a draw-heavy run and a 1-4 loss to Switzerland. The main sources of uncertainty are the USA's leaky defense, having co

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Preview editionRecall anchors: sui bih group_b_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Switzerland win 60.0%; draw 24.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Switzerland 2-0 Bosnia & relevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Qatar win 17.0%; draw 25.0%; Switzerland win 58.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-2 Switzerland, Qatar 0-1 Switzerrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Canada win 52.0%; draw 27.0%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 21.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50