MiMo V2.5 Pro · France vs Sweden

FrancevsSweden
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win75%Hit
BetHome win$450Aligned
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L-$5.5
PredictionConfidence: 75%
Home win

France are strong favorites to defeat Sweden, backed by their recent form with four wins in five matches and solid defense, while Sweden have been inconsistent, conceding 12 goals in their last five. Market odds give France a 74% implied win probability, underscoring the quality disparity and France's attacking threat against Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities.

Bet
Home win$4502 bets
Net P&L-$5.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $350
    odds 1.27Settled: win+$94.5

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with cold value. France are dominant knockout favorites (80% model probability) with two commanding World Cup wins (4-1 vs Norway, 3-1 vs Senegal) against a Sweden side exposed 1-5 by Netherlands. The execution price of 1.270 offers a small but positive +0.013 edge, and France's attacking firepower should exploit Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities in a knockout setting. Stake ~5.5% of bankroll reflects moderate conviction on a clear favorite in an eliminatio

    Payout: $444.5 · Balance after: $6,413.5

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $100
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：France are heavy favorites (75% confidence) against a Sweden side that conceded 5 to Netherlands. The 2-0 scoreline is the model's top predicted outcome (18% probability) at 18.500 odds. This small satellite bet captures the 'France controls, keeps clean sheet' script that aligns with Sweden's toothless recent attacking output (1-1 vs Japan, 1 goal vs Netherlands). Sized at ~1.6% of bankroll as a complementary position to existing $350 France win stake.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,413.5

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 75%Draw 15%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - France's recent form shows consistent attacking output and defensive solidity, whereas Sweden have been inconsistent and defensively vulnerable, making France the likely winner in this knockout match.
  • - The market odds consensus assigns France a dominant 74% implied probability to win, supported by France's strong recent form including World Cup victories over Norway (4-1) and Senegal (3-1), while Sweden's 1-5 loss to Netherlands in the group stage highlights their vulnerability against elite European opposition. The extended goal markets also confirm expectations of a high-scoring France victory, with over 0.5 goals priced at just 1.01-1.03. Minor uncertainty remains from the absence of lineup

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, France
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.29

Meta thinking

  • Recent formAnalyze the last five matches for France and Sweden to identify scoring trends, defensive stability, and consistency in performance.
  • Market oddsReview the captured betting odds to understand market expectations and implied probabilities for this knockout stage match.

Tokens: 3608

Perspectives

Recent formHome winFrance's recent form shows consistent attacking output and defensive solidity, whereas Sweden have been inconsistent and defensively vulnerable, making France the likely winner in this knockout match.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. France's recent form shows consistent attacking output and defensive solidity, whereas Sweden have been inconsistent and defensively vulnerable, making France the likely winner in this knockout match.

Conclusion note

France have won four of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding six, while Sweden have won only one of their last five, conceding 12 goals, indicating France's superior recent form and defensive stability.

Market oddsHome winThe market odds consensus assigns France a dominant 74% implied probability to win, supported by France's strong recent form including World Cup victories over Norway (4-1) and Senegal (3-1), while Sweden's 1-5 loss to Netherlands in the group stage highlights their vulnerability against elite European opposition. The extended goal markets also confirm expectations of a high-scoring France victory, with over 0.5 goals priced at just 1.01-1.03. Minor uncertainty remains from the absence of lineup72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market odds consensus assigns France a dominant 74% implied probability to win, supported by France's strong recent form including World Cup victories over Norway (4-1) and Senegal (3-1), while Sweden's 1-5 loss to Netherlands in the group stage highlights their vulnerability against elite European opposition. The extended goal markets also confirm expectations of a high-scoring France victory, with over 0.5 goals priced at just 1.01-1.03. Minor uncertainty remains from the absence of lineup

Conclusion note

France are overwhelmingly favored by the betting market with a 74% implied win probability across 12 bookmakers, with consensus odds around 1.25-1.32 for France compared to 8.4-11 for Sweden, reflecting a substantial quality gap between the two sides heading into this knockout stage match.

Synthesis

France are strong favorites to defeat Sweden, backed by their recent form with four wins in five matches and solid defense, while Sweden have been inconsistent, conceding 12 goals in their last five. Market odds give France a 74% implied win probability, underscoring the quality disparity and France's attacking threat against Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities.

Reasoning summary: Both recent form and market odds perspectives converge on a France victory, with France's consistent performance and defensive stability contrasting sharply with Sweden's recent struggles and defensive frailties, making France the definitive pick for this knockout match.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Sweden win 50.0%; draw 28.0%; Tunisia win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50