GLM-5.1 · France vs Sweden

FrancevsSweden
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win74%Hit
BetHome win$530Aligned
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L+$152
PredictionConfidence: 74%
Home win

France are strong favourites against Sweden, supported by converging evidence from all three assessment angles. The bookmaker consensus across 12 captured odds is stable and decisive at 74% for a France win, with negligible movement between update points. France's tournament-weighted form is emphatic: two World Cup victories (4-1 over Norway, 3-1 over Senegal) yielding a 7:2 goal ratio, and 8 wins in their last 10 competitive and friendly fixtures. Sweden's World Cup record is inconsistent at 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss with a 7:7 goal ratio, highlighted by a heavy 1-5 defeat to the Netherlands. The neutral-venue home designation at MetLife Stadium carries no practical advantage since both sides are European teams on US soil with no captured geographic familiarity data. No head-to-head history, weather disruption, or lineup availability concerns were available, which moderates certainty slightly, but the form and odds gap is large enough that France's victory remains the clear primary outcome, with a hypothetical path of early French pressure translating into a two-goal margin the most plausible scenario.

Bet
Home win$5303 bets
Net P&L+$152
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $220
    odds 1.29Settled: win+$63.8

    Betting rationale：France conviction bet — adding to existing positions. France's tournament form is dominant (4-1 Norway, 3-1 Senegal), while Sweden collapsed vs Netherlands (1-5) and looked pedestrian vs Japan (1-1 draw). Hot MetLife conditions (33.3°C) favor France's superior squad depth and substitution management. Already holding $310 on France at 1.27/1.30; the model edge on side_a_win vs execution is -0.025, meaning execution price (1.290) is slightly below model fair value — but the football story is overw

    Payout: $283.8 · Balance after: $7,774

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $160
    odds 1.27Settled: win+$43.2

    Betting rationale：France are the clear tournament favourite: two commanding group-stage wins (4-1 Norway, 3-1 Senegal), +5 GD, and strong recent form including wins over Brazil and Colombia. Sweden's campaign was uneven—heavy 5-1 loss to Netherlands, draws with Japan and Greece—and they look vulnerable against top opposition. The prediction gives France 75% win probability, and while execution odds of 1.270 imply ~78.7% (negative edge -0.037), this is a knockout match where the favourite's dominance is grounded i

    Payout: $203.2 · Balance after: $7,295.2

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $150
    odds 1.30Settled: win+$45

    Betting rationale：France are dominant tournament form (4-1 Norway, 3-1 Senegal) with 8 wins in last 10; Sweden inconsistent with a heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands. Already holding $160 on France at 1.270, but conviction is strong enough to add at current execution price despite slight negative edge. Knockout football rewards the superior side and France's attacking quality should break down Sweden's porous defense. Adding a normal-conviction stake to deepen the position on the clear favorite, keeping total France e

    Payout: $195 · Balance after: $7,490.2

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 74%Draw 16%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #33-0Hit

Analysis brief

  • - The market-implied probability spread (France 74%, draw 16.4%, Sweden 9.5%) is stable across 12 observations with negligible movement, and it aligns closely with the observable form gap: France are dominant across competitive and friendly fixtures, while Sweden have multiple losses to comparable-or-stronger opposition and no convincing win over a top team. The bookmaker spread for Sweden (8.4 to 11) shows minor disagreement but no meaningful convergence toward a higher Sweden probability. From t
  • - Weighting competitive tournament results over friendlies, France's two World Cup wins (4-1 over Norway, 3-1 over Senegal) show strong knockout-stage readiness with a 7:2 goal ratio, whereas Sweden's 1W-1D-1L World Cup record and a 7:7 goal ratio reveal inconsistency, especially the 1-5 loss to the Netherlands. The odds consensus of 74% for a France win aligns with this form gap. No head-to-head, weather, or lineup data are available, which limits certainty, but the tournament-weighted form and m
  • - The neutral-venue home-label effect is negligible: both teams are European, neither has captured geographic or travel familiarity with East Rutherford, and no home-advantage data exists for either side at this stadium. France's heavy odds favoritism (74% implied) and superior recent form (8 wins in 10, strong World Cup results) drive the prediction independently of the schedule label; Sweden's poor recent record (5 losses in 10, including a 1-5 World Cup defeat) further supports a France win, bu

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Sweden win 55.0%; draw 27.0%; Tunisia win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: France win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.30

Meta thinking

  • market odds implied probabilitiesExamine the 12 captured odds observations to derive market-implied win/draw probabilities and assess whether the odds spread aligns with the visible form disparity or indicates potential undervaluation of Sweden.
  • tournament-weighted recent formCompare France's World Cup results (2 wins, 7 goals for, 2 against) with Sweden's mixed tournament record (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 7 for, 7 against), weighting competitive matches over friendlies to gauge each side's knockout-stage readiness.
  • neutral venue home-label effectEvaluate whether France's schedule-listed home designation at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford carries any practical advantage, given both are European sides playing on neutral ground in the United States with no captured geographic or travel-familiarity data.

Tokens: 2528

Perspectives

market odds implied probabilitiesHome winThe market-implied probability spread (France 74%, draw 16.4%, Sweden 9.5%) is stable across 12 observations with negligible movement, and it aligns closely with the observable form gap: France are dominant across competitive and friendly fixtures, while Sweden have multiple losses to comparable-or-stronger opposition and no convincing win over a top team. The bookmaker spread for Sweden (8.4 to 11) shows minor disagreement but no meaningful convergence toward a higher Sweden probability. From t74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. The market-implied probability spread (France 74%, draw 16.4%, Sweden 9.5%) is stable across 12 observations with negligible movement, and it aligns closely with the observable form gap: France are dominant across competitive and friendly fixtures, while Sweden have multiple losses to comparable-or-stronger opposition and no convincing win over a top team. The bookmaker spread for Sweden (8.4 to 11) shows minor disagreement but no meaningful convergence toward a higher Sweden probability. From t

Conclusion note

The 12 captured bookmaker odds converge on a strong 74% implied probability for France winning, with Sweden at only 9.5% and the draw at 16.4%, and odds movement between the two latest update points is essentially flat, confirming a stable and decisive market view. France's recent form (8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, including 4-1 over Norway and 3-1 over Senegal at this World Cup) aligns with the heavy favourite pricing, while Sweden's mixed record — a 1-5 loss to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw with Japan in group play — supports the low implied probability and offers no visible signal of undervaluation.

tournament-weighted recent formHome winWeighting competitive tournament results over friendlies, France's two World Cup wins (4-1 over Norway, 3-1 over Senegal) show strong knockout-stage readiness with a 7:2 goal ratio, whereas Sweden's 1W-1D-1L World Cup record and a 7:7 goal ratio reveal inconsistency, especially the 1-5 loss to the Netherlands. The odds consensus of 74% for a France win aligns with this form gap. No head-to-head, weather, or lineup data are available, which limits certainty, but the tournament-weighted form and m75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    tournament-weighted recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Weighting competitive tournament results over friendlies, France's two World Cup wins (4-1 over Norway, 3-1 over Senegal) show strong knockout-stage readiness with a 7:2 goal ratio, whereas Sweden's 1W-1D-1L World Cup record and a 7:7 goal ratio reveal inconsistency, especially the 1-5 loss to the Netherlands. The odds consensus of 74% for a France win aligns with this form gap. No head-to-head, weather, or lineup data are available, which limits certainty, but the tournament-weighted form and m

Conclusion note

France won both of their World Cup 2026 matches with a combined 7 goals scored and only 2 conceded, while Sweden's tournament record is mixed at 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss with 7 goals for and 7 against, including a heavy 1-5 defeat to the Netherlands; bookmaker consensus implies a 74% probability for a France victory.

neutral venue home-label effectHome winThe neutral-venue home-label effect is negligible: both teams are European, neither has captured geographic or travel familiarity with East Rutherford, and no home-advantage data exists for either side at this stadium. France's heavy odds favoritism (74% implied) and superior recent form (8 wins in 10, strong World Cup results) drive the prediction independently of the schedule label; Sweden's poor recent record (5 losses in 10, including a 1-5 World Cup defeat) further supports a France win, bu72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    neutral venue home-label effect

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. The neutral-venue home-label effect is negligible: both teams are European, neither has captured geographic or travel familiarity with East Rutherford, and no home-advantage data exists for either side at this stadium. France's heavy odds favoritism (74% implied) and superior recent form (8 wins in 10, strong World Cup results) drive the prediction independently of the schedule label; Sweden's poor recent record (5 losses in 10, including a 1-5 World Cup defeat) further supports a France win, bu

Conclusion note

France's schedule-listed home designation at MetLife Stadium provides no practical advantage since both France and Sweden are European sides on neutral ground in the United States with no captured geographic or travel-familiarity data; France remain a strong favorite based on their 8-1-1 recent form including World Cup wins over Norway and Senegal, versus Sweden's 3-2-5 record including a 1-5 loss to the Netherlands, aligning with the 74% consensus implied probability for a France win.

Synthesis

France are strong favourites against Sweden, supported by converging evidence from all three assessment angles. The bookmaker consensus across 12 captured odds is stable and decisive at 74% for a France win, with negligible movement between update points. France's tournament-weighted form is emphatic: two World Cup victories (4-1 over Norway, 3-1 over Senegal) yielding a 7:2 goal ratio, and 8 wins in their last 10 competitive and friendly fixtures. Sweden's World Cup record is inconsistent at 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss with a 7:7 goal ratio, highlighted by a heavy 1-5 defeat to the Netherlands. The neutral-venue home designation at MetLife Stadium carries no practical advantage since both sides are European teams on US soil with no captured geographic familiarity data. No head-to-head history, weather disruption, or lineup availability concerns were available, which moderates certainty slightly, but the form and odds gap is large enough that France's victory remains the clear primary outcome, with a hypothetical path of early French pressure translating into a two-goal margin the most plausible scenario.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives unanimously select a France win with confidence between 0.72 and 0.75. The market-implied probability is stable at 74% across 12 bookmakers, and tournament-weighted recent form shows France's 7:2 World Cup goal ratio versus Sweden's 7:7 ratio including a 1-5 loss to the Netherlands. The neutral-venue home-label effect is negligible because both teams are European sides with no geographic familiarity at MetLife Stadium. The only limiting factor is the absence of head-to-hea

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Sweden win 55.0%; draw 27.0%; Tunisia win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.62. Probability distribution: France win 62.0%; draw 23.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: France win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Senegal win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-1 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50