DeepSeek V4 Flash · France vs Sweden

FrancevsSweden
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win78%Hit
BetBet portfolio$360Bet portfolio
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L-$100
PredictionConfidence: 78%
Home win

France enter this knockout match as clear favorites, backed by a solid recent form including commanding group stage wins over Norway and Senegal, while Sweden have struggled with inconsistency and a heavy 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. The market consensus and form comparison both strongly indicate a France victory, with Sweden requiring a significant improvement to challenge the French side.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3603 bets
Net P&L-$100
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 1.30Settled: win+$60

    Betting rationale：France are heavy favourites with commanding group-stage wins over Norway and Senegal, while Sweden have been inconsistent and suffered a heavy loss to the Netherlands. The model assigns 78% win probability and shows a small positive edge (+0.011) against Pinnacle's execution price. The existing draw hedge ($100 at 6.33) offers some protection against the main upset risk, so adding a measured France stake aligns with the predicted outcome and keeps total match exposure moderate.

    Payout: $260 · Balance after: $6,509.65

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $100
    odds 6.33Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Cold value bet on draw. Model assigns draw 17% probability; Pinnacle 6.33 implies 15.8%, giving a small positive edge (+0.012). Knockout match script: Sweden likely sit deep and frustrate France, who may struggle to break down a compact defence early. A tight, low-scoring affair could easily be level after 90 minutes. The predicted scorelines (2-0, 1-0, 2-1) also allow for a draw if Sweden hold firm. Small stake reflects the thin edge, but the price is playable and the draw is a live outcome in

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,249.65

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $60
    odds 9.50Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Value play on 1-0 correct score. France are heavy favourites with a potent attack, but Sweden will sit deep in a knockout round — a single goal often settles such matches. The model rates 1-0 at 15% probability, while the executable odds of 9.50 imply only 10.5%, giving a strong edge. The stake is a small satellite bet (≈1% of bankroll) that aligns with the predicted match script without overexposing the portfolio.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,509.65

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 78%Draw 14%Away win 8%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - Market odds analysis shows a decisive consensus: France's implied win probability of 74% dwarfs Sweden's 9.5% and the draw at 16.4%, with almost no movement across 13 update points, indicating stable market confidence. France's superior recent results and Sweden's inconsistency align with the pricing. Missing lineup and head-to-head data introduce some uncertainty, but the odds signal is unambiguous enough to predict a France victory in this knockout tie.
  • - France's recent form (W-W-L-W-W) shows four wins in five, including two convincing World Cup group-stage victories with a combined +5 goal differential, whereas Sweden (D-L-W-D-L) have only one win in five and a negative competitive trajectory. The odds market reflects this gulf, pricing France at around 1.25–1.32 and Sweden at 8.4–11. Despite the absence of lineup, injury and head-to-head data, the form and odds evidence align decisively in France's favor for this knockout encounter.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Sweden win 58.0%; draw 26.0%; Tunisia win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.07Log loss 0.25

Meta thinking

  • Market odds analysisExamine the 12 observed market odds to calculate implied win probabilities for each team and draw, and evaluate whether the market consensus provides a clear indication or suggests uncertainty.
  • Recent competitive form comparisonCompare France and Sweden's last five matches including World Cup group stage performances, focusing on match outcomes, goal differentials, and opponents faced to assess which team enters the knockout round with stronger momentum.

Tokens: 3437

Perspectives

Market odds analysisHome winMarket odds analysis shows a decisive consensus: France's implied win probability of 74% dwarfs Sweden's 9.5% and the draw at 16.4%, with almost no movement across 13 update points, indicating stable market confidence. France's superior recent results and Sweden's inconsistency align with the pricing. Missing lineup and head-to-head data introduce some uncertainty, but the odds signal is unambiguous enough to predict a France victory in this knockout tie.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #12

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. Market odds analysis shows a decisive consensus: France's implied win probability of 74% dwarfs Sweden's 9.5% and the draw at 16.4%, with almost no movement across 13 update points, indicating stable market confidence. France's superior recent results and Sweden's inconsistency align with the pricing. Missing lineup and head-to-head data introduce some uncertainty, but the odds signal is unambiguous enough to predict a France victory in this knockout tie.

Conclusion note

The 12-bookmaker consensus gives France a 74% implied win probability (average odds ~1.29) against Sweden at just 9.5% (odds ~9.0), a very clear market favorite with negligible movement in the final hours. France's recent form is strong (8 wins in last 10, including two World Cup group victories) while Sweden's group stage included a 1-5 defeat to Netherlands, reinforcing the odds gap.

Recent competitive form comparisonHome winFrance's recent form (W-W-L-W-W) shows four wins in five, including two convincing World Cup group-stage victories with a combined +5 goal differential, whereas Sweden (D-L-W-D-L) have only one win in five and a negative competitive trajectory. The odds market reflects this gulf, pricing France at around 1.25–1.32 and Sweden at 8.4–11. Despite the absence of lineup, injury and head-to-head data, the form and odds evidence align decisively in France's favor for this knockout encounter.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T21:08:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 74%, draw 16.4%, side B win 9.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.02pp, draw +0.09pp, side B win -0.07pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.26 / draw 5.7 / side B 9.8 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.7 / side B 8.4; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.29 / draw 5.5 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.3 / draw 5.75 / side B 9 → side A 1.25 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.29, draw 5.7, side B 8.4; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.25, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.32, draw 6.15, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. Group context for the current match is unavailable: the match is not a resolvable group-stage fixture.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Check team ranking facts

    #14

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  16. Check team ranking facts

    #15

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  17. Perspective: Recent competitive form comparison. France enters the knockout round with strong momentum: 4 wins in last 5 matches (including 4-1 vs Norway and 3-1 vs Senegal in World Cup group stage). Sweden has 1 win in last 5 (5-1 vs Tunisia but also a heavy 1-5 loss to Netherlands and a 1-1 draw with Japan). Odds consensus heavily favors France at 74% implied win probability vs 9.5% for Sweden. Form differential clearly favors France.

  18. France's recent form (W-W-L-W-W) shows four wins in five, including two convincing World Cup group-stage victories with a combined +5 goal differential, whereas Sweden (D-L-W-D-L) have only one win in five and a negative competitive trajectory. The odds market reflects this gulf, pricing France at around 1.25–1.32 and Sweden at 8.4–11. Despite the absence of lineup, injury and head-to-head data, the form and odds evidence align decisively in France's favor for this knockout encounter.

Conclusion note

France have dominated their two World Cup group matches with a 4-1 win over Norway and a 3-1 win over Senegal, adding victories against Brazil and Colombia in recent friendlies, while Sweden managed only one win in their last five matches (5-1 vs Tunisia) and suffered a heavy 1-5 defeat to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw with Japan. Bookmaker consensus strongly backs France at 74% implied win probability against Sweden's 9.5%, with representative odds such as bet365 at 1.25 for France and 11 for Sweden.

Synthesis

France enter this knockout match as clear favorites, backed by a solid recent form including commanding group stage wins over Norway and Senegal, while Sweden have struggled with inconsistency and a heavy 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. The market consensus and form comparison both strongly indicate a France victory, with Sweden requiring a significant improvement to challenge the French side.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives highlight France's superior recent form and strong market support, giving France a decisive edge. The recalled memories of previous predictions for France also align with France being a strong favorite. The evidence points to a France win with high confidence.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Sweden win 58.0%; draw 26.0%; Tunisia win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50