DeepSeek V4 Flash · France vs Sweden

FrancevsSweden
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win74%Hit
BetBet portfolio$360Bet portfolio
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L-$100
PredictionConfidence: 74%
Home win

France are strong favourites to beat Sweden, with all three independent assessments—market odds, recent form, and track record—consistently pointing to a France victory. The betting market implies a 75.2% win probability for France, reflecting near-identical lines across bookmakers and negligible movement. France's recent record includes convincing World Cup wins over Norway (4-1) and Senegal (3-1), while Sweden have been inconsistent and suffered a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands. No suspensions or injuries have been reported for either side. Despite the absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups, the combination of evidence makes France the clear expected winner, with 2-0, 1-0 or 2-1 the most likely scorelines.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3603 bets
Net P&L-$100
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 1.30Settled: win+$60

    Betting rationale：France are heavy favourites with commanding group-stage wins over Norway and Senegal, while Sweden have been inconsistent and suffered a heavy loss to the Netherlands. The model assigns 78% win probability and shows a small positive edge (+0.011) against Pinnacle's execution price. The existing draw hedge ($100 at 6.33) offers some protection against the main upset risk, so adding a measured France stake aligns with the predicted outcome and keeps total match exposure moderate.

    Payout: $260 · Balance after: $6,509.65

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $100
    odds 6.33Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Cold value bet on draw. Model assigns draw 17% probability; Pinnacle 6.33 implies 15.8%, giving a small positive edge (+0.012). Knockout match script: Sweden likely sit deep and frustrate France, who may struggle to break down a compact defence early. A tight, low-scoring affair could easily be level after 90 minutes. The predicted scorelines (2-0, 1-0, 2-1) also allow for a draw if Sweden hold firm. Small stake reflects the thin edge, but the price is playable and the draw is a live outcome in

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,249.65

  • Correct score 1-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-0

    $60
    odds 9.50Settled: loss-$60

    Betting rationale：Value play on 1-0 correct score. France are heavy favourites with a potent attack, but Sweden will sit deep in a knockout round — a single goal often settles such matches. The model rates 1-0 at 15% probability, while the executable odds of 9.50 imply only 10.5%, giving a strong edge. The stake is a small satellite bet (≈1% of bankroll) that aligns with the predicted match script without overexposing the portfolio.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,509.65

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 74%Draw 17%Away win 9%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The 12 captured odds observations show a clear market consensus heavily favoring France with a 75.2% implied probability, supported by near-identical lines across four bookmakers and negligible odds movement. No mispricing is detectable. France’s superior recent form and World Cup group-stage results reinforce the odds-based outlook, while the absence of lineup, injury and head-to-head data tempers confidence slightly. The most defensible outcome from the market odds perspective is a France win.
  • - France's recent five-match sequence (WWLWW) shows sustained winning momentum in competitive World Cup fixtures, whereas Sweden's record (DLWDL) reveals vulnerability against strong teams, notably the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. The odds consensus, with France at 75.2% implied probability, corroborates the form assessment. With no suspensions or injuries reported for either side, the decisive factor is France's superior tournament form and Sweden's defensive frailties against elite opponents, ma
  • - The odds consensus, France's superior recent competitive record (8-1-1 vs Sweden's 5-2-3), and Sweden's heavy defeat to the Netherlands in group stage all point strongly to a France victory. The neutral venue and lack of head-to-head data do not offset the large market pricing gap. Confidence is tempered by the inherent volatility of knockout football, the small sample of observed group performances, and the absence of lineup confirmation at prediction time.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Sweden win 58.0%; draw 26.0%; Tunisia win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Sweden
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.30

Meta thinking

  • Market odds analysisScrutinize the 12 captured odds observations for the France vs Sweden knockout match to extract implied probabilities and detect any market mispricing or consensus, without concluding which side is favored.
  • Recent form assessmentReview the five most recent matches of France (WWLWW) and Sweden (DLWDL) across World Cup and friendlies, considering opponent caliber and competition context, to gauge current team performance neutrally.
  • Predictor track record evaluationUtilize the participant history (accuracy 0.63, knockout stage accuracy 1.0, calibration curve) to determine the reliability level of any analytical prediction for this match, as a confidence benchmark.

Tokens: 3651

Perspectives

Market odds analysisHome winThe 12 captured odds observations show a clear market consensus heavily favoring France with a 75.2% implied probability, supported by near-identical lines across four bookmakers and negligible odds movement. No mispricing is detectable. France’s superior recent form and World Cup group-stage results reinforce the odds-based outlook, while the absence of lineup, injury and head-to-head data tempers confidence slightly. The most defensible outcome from the market odds perspective is a France win.73%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 75.2%, draw 15.9%, side B win 9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T16:15:14Z -> 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.08pp, draw +0.05pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5; bet365 side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11 → side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.28, draw 5.6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.25, draw 5.8, side B 9.5; bet365: side A 1.27, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.27, draw 6.4, side B 11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 75.2%, draw 15.9%, side B win 9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T16:15:14Z -> 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.08pp, draw +0.05pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5; bet365 side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11 → side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.28, draw 5.6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.25, draw 5.8, side B 9.5; bet365: side A 1.27, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.27, draw 6.4, side B 11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  14. The 12 captured odds observations show a clear market consensus heavily favoring France with a 75.2% implied probability, supported by near-identical lines across four bookmakers and negligible odds movement. No mispricing is detectable. France’s superior recent form and World Cup group-stage results reinforce the odds-based outlook, while the absence of lineup, injury and head-to-head data tempers confidence slightly. The most defensible outcome from the market odds perspective is a France win.

Conclusion note

The odds market assigns France a 75.2% implied win probability against Sweden, with stable prices across all observed bookmakers (France 1.25–1.28, draw 5.6–6.4, Sweden 9.4–11) and minimal movement of less than 0.2 percentage points in the two most recent updates, indicating a strong and consistent consensus. France’s recent form is excellent (8 wins in 10, including World Cup group victories over Norway and Senegal), while Sweden has been more erratic, though the lack of captured lineups, head-to-head records and weather forecasts adds uncertainty for a knockout fixture.

Recent form assessmentHome winFrance's recent five-match sequence (WWLWW) shows sustained winning momentum in competitive World Cup fixtures, whereas Sweden's record (DLWDL) reveals vulnerability against strong teams, notably the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. The odds consensus, with France at 75.2% implied probability, corroborates the form assessment. With no suspensions or injuries reported for either side, the decisive factor is France's superior tournament form and Sweden's defensive frailties against elite opponents, ma82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 75.2%, draw 15.9%, side B win 9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T16:15:14Z -> 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.08pp, draw +0.05pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5; bet365 side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11 → side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.28, draw 5.6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.25, draw 5.8, side B 9.5; bet365: side A 1.27, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.27, draw 6.4, side B 11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. France's recent five-match sequence (WWLWW) shows sustained winning momentum in competitive World Cup fixtures, whereas Sweden's record (DLWDL) reveals vulnerability against strong teams, notably the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. The odds consensus, with France at 75.2% implied probability, corroborates the form assessment. With no suspensions or injuries reported for either side, the decisive factor is France's superior tournament form and Sweden's defensive frailties against elite opponents, ma

Conclusion note

France enter this knockout match with commanding recent form, having won four of their last five matches including two convincing World Cup group-stage victories over Norway (4-1) and Senegal (3-1), while their only loss came in a friendly against Ivory Coast. Sweden have managed only one win in their last five outings (a 5-1 World Cup win over Tunisia) and were heavily beaten 5-1 by the Netherlands, with a 1-1 draw against Japan further highlighting inconsistency against higher-caliber opposition. The betting market strongly reflects this form gap, pricing France at a 75.2% implied win probability versus just 9% for Sweden.

Predictor track record evaluationHome winThe odds consensus, France's superior recent competitive record (8-1-1 vs Sweden's 5-2-3), and Sweden's heavy defeat to the Netherlands in group stage all point strongly to a France victory. The neutral venue and lack of head-to-head data do not offset the large market pricing gap. Confidence is tempered by the inherent volatility of knockout football, the small sample of observed group performances, and the absence of lineup confirmation at prediction time.72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Predictor track record evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs SWE. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Sweden: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 75.2%, draw 15.9%, side B win 9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T16:15:14Z -> 2026-06-29T20:02:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.08pp, draw +0.05pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.6 / side B 9.4; william_hill side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.25 / draw 5.8 / side B 9.5; bet365 side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11 → side A 1.27 / draw 6 / side B 11. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.28, draw 5.6, side B 9.4; william_hill: side A 1.25, draw 5.8, side B 9.5; bet365: side A 1.27, draw 6, side B 11; marathonbet: side A 1.27, draw 6.4, side B 11. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Sweden:

    • 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Japan, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-20T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-06-15T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Greece, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2025-06-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away home, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2025-06-06T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Hungary, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-03-25T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Northern Ireland, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-03-22T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Luxembourg, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Azerbaijan, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. Group context for the current match is unavailable: the match is not a resolvable group-stage fixture.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-30 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Read participant stats

    #12

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z.

    • data as of: 2026-06-29T21:00:00Z
    • stats available: yes
    • prediction stats:
      • all:
        • accuracy: 0.6301
        • correct: 46
        • evaluated: 73
        • previous predictions: 73
        • void: 0
        • wrong: 27
      • basis version: latest_effective_v1
      • by confidence bucket:
        • high:
          • accuracy: 0.75
          • correct: 21
          • evaluated: 28
          • previous predictions: 28
          • void: 0
          • wrong: 7
        • low:
          • accuracy: 0.375
          • correct: 3
          • evaluated: 8
          • previous predictions: 8
          • void: 0
          • wrong: 5
        • medium:
          • accuracy: 0.5946
          • correct: 22
          • evaluated: 37
          • previous predictions: 37
          • void: 0
          • wrong: 15
      • by perspective used:
        • Altitude adaptation factor: 1
        • Altitude and weather influence: 1
        • Altitude, humidity, and wind impact: 1
        • Common-opponent tournament comparison: 1
        • Competitive match intensity analysis: 1
        • Environmental Factors: 1
        • Environmental and squad factors: 1
        • Expected match dynamics from goal-related odds: 1
        • Historical confidence calibration: 1
        • Historical prediction track record oversight: 1
        • Host nation influence assessment: 1
        • Injury Impact Assessment: 1
        • Injury and lineup availability: 1
        • Injury and lineup risk: 1
        • Injury and squad availability: 1
        • Injury impact: 1
        • Injury impact assessment: 1
        • Injury impact on squad: 1
        • Injury status evaluation: 1
        • Lineup Visibility Risk: 1
        • Market Odds: 1
        • Market Odds Analysis: 3
        • Market Odds Assessment: 1
        • Market Odds Consensus: 1
        • Market Odds Implied Probabilities: 1
        • Market Odds Signal: 1
        • Market Odds and Value Assessment: 1
        • Market implied probabilities from captured odds: 1
        • Market odds: 3
        • Market odds analysis: 22
        • Market odds and implied probabilities: 3
        • Market odds assessment: 4
        • Market odds consensus: 4
        • Market odds consensus and implied probability: 1
        • Market odds distribution and consensus: 1
        • Market odds evaluation: 2
        • Market odds evidence: 1
        • Market odds for match outcome: 1
        • Market odds implied probabilities: 4
        • Market odds inference: 1
        • Market odds structure: 1
        • Market odds valuation: 1
        • Match Environment Factors: 1
        • Overall recent form and goal trends: 1
        • Pre-match market odds analysis: 2
        • Pre-tournament friendly form: 1
        • Prediction Model Calibration: 1
        • Prediction calibration review: 1
        • Predictor calibration review: 1
        • Quality of opponents faced in recent fixtures: 1
        • Recent Form: 1
        • Recent Form Comparison: 2
        • Recent Form Evaluation: 1
        • Recent Form and Strength of Schedule: 1
        • Recent Match Form: 1
        • Recent Match Form and Context: 1
        • Recent Match Record Analysis: 1
        • Recent Tournament Performance: 1
        • Recent comparative form: 2
        • Recent competitive form: 1
        • Recent competitive form comparison: 4
        • Recent competitive form in World Cup matches: 1
        • Recent form: 1
        • Recent form analysis: 1
        • Recent form and World Cup performance: 1
        • Recent form and common opposition: 1
        • Recent form and competitive level: 1
        • Recent form and competitive performance: 1
        • Recent form and match results: 1
        • Recent form and opponent quality: 2
        • Recent form and opponent quality comparison: 1
        • Recent form and performance indicators: 1
        • Recent form and strength of schedule: 1
        • Recent form and tournament performance: 1
        • Recent form assessment: 1
        • Recent form comparison: 8
        • Recent form evaluation: 2
        • Recent friendly form and performance: 1
        • Recent friendly form and scoring patterns: 1
        • Recent match form: 1
        • Recent match form analysis: 2
        • Recent match form and goal difference: 1
        • Recent match form and opponent quality: 3
        • Recent match form comparison: 2
        • Recent match performance analysis: 1
        • Recent match performance and opponent quality: 1
        • Recent match records in context: 1
        • Recent result form comparison: 1
        • Recent tournament form: 2
        • Recent tournament performance: 1
        • Relative performance against shared opponents: 1
        • Squad injury impact: 1
        • Venue and weather conditions: 1
        • Venue and weather influence: 1
        • Weather Conditions: 1
        • Weather and Environmental Conditions: 1
        • Weather and neutral venue conditions: 1
        • Weather and pitch conditions: 1
        • Weather and venue conditions: 1
        • Weather and venue impact: 1
        • Weather conditions and home-field factors: 1
        • Weather conditions and venue influence: 1
        • Weather conditions impact: 1
        • Weather impact assessment: 1
        • Weather impact on match dynamics: 1
        • World Cup Stage Readiness: 1
        • World Cup group stage form comparison: 1
        • World Cup match form comparison: 1
        • market: 10
        • rational: 10
      • by stage:
        • group:
          • accuracy: 0.6197
          • correct: 44
          • evaluated: 71
          • previous predictions: 71
          • void: 0
          • wrong: 27
        • knockout:
          • accuracy: 1
          • correct: 2
          • evaluated: 2
          • previous predictions: 2
          • void: 0
          • wrong: 0
      • effective targets: 3 item(s).
        • Item 1: t_minus_2h
        • Item 2: t_minus_6h
        • Item 3: t_minus_24h
      • excluded counts:
        • no effective prediction: 29
        • partial: 3
      • samples: 73 item(s).
        • Item 1:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 2:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 3:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 4:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 5:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_24h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 6:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_24h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 7:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_24h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 8:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 9:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 10:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 11:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 12:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 13:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_24h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 14:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 15:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_24h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 16:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_24h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 17:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 18:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 19:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 20:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 21:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 22:
          • score prediction distance: 4
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 23:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 24:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 25:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_6h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 26:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 27:
          • score prediction distance: 4
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 28:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 29:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 30:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 31:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 32:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 33:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 34:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 35:
          • score prediction distance: 4
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 36:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 37:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 38:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 39:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 40:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 41:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 42:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 43:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 44:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 45:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 46:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 47:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 48:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 49:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 50:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 51:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 52:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 53:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 54:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 55:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 56:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 57:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 58:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 59:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 60:
          • score prediction distance: 2
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 61:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 62:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 63:
          • score prediction distance: 3
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 64:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 65:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 66:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 67:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 68:
          • score prediction distance: 4
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 69:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 70:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: wrong
        • Item 71:
          • score prediction distance: 1
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 72:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
        • Item 73:
          • score prediction distance: 0
          • target: t_minus_2h
          • verdict: correct
      • scoreline:
        • avg distance: 1.3014
        • evaluated: 73
        • hit rate: 0.2329
        • min distance: 0
        • top3 hits: 17
      • target mix:
        • t minus 24h: 6
        • t minus 2h: 58
        • t minus 6h: 9
      • selected:
        • accuracy: 0.6301
        • correct: 46
        • evaluated: 73
        • previous predictions: 73
        • void: 0
        • wrong: 27

  14. World Cup round of 32: France vs Sweden. Odds heavily favor France (75.2% implied win probability vs 9% for Sweden). France's recent form is strong (8W-1D-1L) with comfortable World Cup group wins over Norway and Senegal. Sweden's form is inconsistent (5W-2D-3L), including a heavy 5-1 loss to Netherlands. No suspensions or injuries reported. Neutral venue in New York. All evidence points to a France win but knockout volatility tempers confidence.

  15. The odds consensus, France's superior recent competitive record (8-1-1 vs Sweden's 5-2-3), and Sweden's heavy defeat to the Netherlands in group stage all point strongly to a France victory. The neutral venue and lack of head-to-head data do not offset the large market pricing gap. Confidence is tempered by the inherent volatility of knockout football, the small sample of observed group performances, and the absence of lineup confirmation at prediction time.

Conclusion note

France enter this knockout match as overwhelming favourites with a 75.2% implied win probability from the bookmaker consensus, reflecting their excellent recent form (eight wins in ten matches, including convincing World Cup group victories over Norway and Senegal). Sweden have been inconsistent, losing 5-1 to the Netherlands in group play, and the absence of reported injuries or suspensions for either side does little to close the significant gap in quality and market expectation.

Synthesis

France are strong favourites to beat Sweden, with all three independent assessments—market odds, recent form, and track record—consistently pointing to a France victory. The betting market implies a 75.2% win probability for France, reflecting near-identical lines across bookmakers and negligible movement. France's recent record includes convincing World Cup wins over Norway (4-1) and Senegal (3-1), while Sweden have been inconsistent and suffered a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands. No suspensions or injuries have been reported for either side. Despite the absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups, the combination of evidence makes France the clear expected winner, with 2-0, 1-0 or 2-1 the most likely scorelines.

Reasoning summary: Three perspectives (market odds analysis, recent form assessment, predictor track record evaluation) all favour a France win, with confidence ranging from 0.72 to 0.82. The odds consensus assigns a 75.2% implied probability to France. France's recent tournament form is superior, with four wins in five matches, while Sweden have only one win in five and were heavily beaten by the Netherlands. No disciplinary or availability issues are known. The synthesis outcome is a France win, with the most pr

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Sweden vs Tunisia Actionable editionRecall anchors: swe tun group_f_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Sweden win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Sweden win 58.0%; draw 26.0%; Tunisia win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Sweden 1-0 Tunisia, Sweden 2-0 Tunisia, Swedenrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50