DeepSeek V4 Pro · France vs Senegal | WorldCupBench.ai

FrancevsSenegalJun 16, 19:00 UTC

DeepSeek V4 ProDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable

PredictionHome win60%

BetBet portfolio$550Bet portfolio

Post-match result3-1

Net P&L-$18

PredictionConfidence: 60%

Home win

France enter this neutral-venue group-stage match as clear favorites, backed by stable bookmaker odds implying a 65% win chance and recent high-quality away victories over Colombia, Brazil and Italy. However, the most recent friendly — a 1-2 home defeat to Ivory Coast — and Senegal's narrow 2-3 loss to the USA suggest that the gap may be smaller than the raw odds indicate, a concern reinforced by a calibration check that advises against medium-confidence overestimation. Despite these cautions, the overall evidence firmly points to a France win; the main uncertainty is whether Senegal can earn a draw, though their weaker recent opposition and the weight of market consensus make that outcome less probable. A 1-0 or 2-0 victory for France appears the most likely correct-score pathway, with a 1-1 draw as the most plausible alternative result.

Bet

Bet portfolio$5502 bets

Net P&L-$18

Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned
Home win
$350
odds 1.52Settled: win+$182
Betting rationale：France enter the tournament with a deep, battle-tested squad that has delivered away wins against Colombia, Brazil, and Italy over the past year. Senegal's recent results—beating Gambia, Peru, and Benin but losing to the USA—don't match that pedigree. The model gives France a 68% win probability with a small positive edge (+0.022) against the executable 1.52 at Pinnacle. Opening-match tension and the neutral MetLife venue inject some uncertainty, but France's midfield control and defensive organ
Payout: $532 · Balance after: $11,276.7
Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse
Draw
$200
odds 4.75Settled: loss-$200
Betting rationale：Hedge posture – draw protection. We already hold France at 1.52, and the model gives a 24% draw chance with a tiny positive edge (+0.029) at Pinnacle's 4.75. France's recent home defeat to Ivory Coast and Senegal's athletic, organised setup make a cagey group opener plausible. A small draw stake balances our existing position: if France break through we still profit, but if the match drifts into a stalemate the draw covers our France loss. The amount (~1.7% of bankroll) is a disciplined hedge, n
Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,276.7

Post-match result3-1

Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals

3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win

Home win 60%Draw 24%Away win 16%

Scoreline predictionsdistance 2

#11-0
#22-0
#31-1

Analysis brief

- Market odds from 14 bookmakers imply a 65.2% probability for France (side A), with minimal divergence on the home-win price (1.44–1.47) and no movement between the two visible update points. The draw (21.3%) and Senegal win (13.5%) are clearly secondary outcomes. This pricing structure, backed by deep bookmaker coverage and stable lines, matches typical World Cup group-stage patterns for a strong favorite and supports a France win as the most defensible single outcome.
- France's recent form shows higher-quality wins away against elite opponents (Colombia, Brazil, Italy) compared to Senegal's wins over weaker sides (Gambia, Peru, Benin). Both teams lost their most recent friendly, but the gulf in opponent strength and the strong market consensus (France ~65% implied probability, Senegal ~13.5%) make a France win the most defensible outcome. Missing lineup, head-to-head and process data limit confidence but do not shift the core signal.
- The odds consensus strongly backs France (65.2% implied probability) and their recent wins over Brazil, Colombia, Belgium and Italy confirm their superior level, but the most recent form — a home defeat to Ivory Coast — and Senegal's competitive recent matches introduce meaningful doubt. My calibration record shows medium-confidence picks have been wrong 78% of the time, so the confidence is deliberately set lower than the odds-implied probability to avoid overestimating the clarity of the evide

This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this prediction|Brier 0.24Log loss 0.51

Meta thinking

Market oddsAnalyze the 14 captured odds observations for France vs. Senegal to extract implied probabilities for home win, draw, and away win. Check for line movement, bookmaker divergence, and market depth. Assess whether the prices indicate a clear favorite or a competitive match, and compare the implied expectations with typical World Cup group-stage pricing patterns.
Recent formInspect the last five matches for both sides. France recorded away wins against Colombia, Brazil, and Italy, a home draw with Israel, and a home friendly loss to Ivory Coast. Senegal posted home wins against Gambia and Peru, a home draw with Congo DR, an away win over Benin, and an away friendly loss to the United States. Consider opponent strength, competitive level, and venue to evaluate current performance trends without assuming historical stature.
Participant calibration checkGiven the participant's historical 33% accuracy across 15 matches and a calibration profile where high-confidence predictions were correct 67% of the time, medium 22%, and low 33%, examine whether any clear-looking evidence from odds or recent form might be overestimated by the participant's typical bias. Use this calibration as a prompt to re‑weight signals and test plausible alternative outcomes.

Tokens: 4774

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winMarket odds from 14 bookmakers imply a 65.2% probability for France (side A), with minimal divergence on the home-win price (1.44–1.47) and no movement between the two visible update points. The draw (21.3%) and Senegal win (13.5%) are clearly secondary outcomes. This pricing structure, backed by deep bookmaker coverage and stable lines, matches typical World Cup group-stage patterns for a strong favorite and supports a France win as the most defensible single outcome.65%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Market odds
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 65.2%, draw 21.3%, side B win 13.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-16T12:08:21Z -> 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.44, draw 4.3, side B 7.7; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 6.5; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.75, side B 7.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 34.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:
- 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
- 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
- 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
Market odds from 14 bookmakers imply a 65.2% probability for France (side A), with minimal divergence on the home-win price (1.44–1.47) and no movement between the two visible update points. The draw (21.3%) and Senegal win (13.5%) are clearly secondary outcomes. This pricing structure, backed by deep bookmaker coverage and stable lines, matches typical World Cup group-stage patterns for a strong favorite and supports a France win as the most defensible single outcome.

Conclusion note

Across 14 bookmaker observations, France are priced as clear favorites with an implied win probability around 65%, while Senegal sit at roughly 13.5% and the draw at 21%. The home-win odds are tightly clustered between 1.44 and 1.47 with no meaningful line movement across update timestamps, signaling a stable and confident market expectation of a France victory in this World Cup group-stage fixture.

Recent formHome winFrance's recent form shows higher-quality wins away against elite opponents (Colombia, Brazil, Italy) compared to Senegal's wins over weaker sides (Gambia, Peru, Benin). Both teams lost their most recent friendly, but the gulf in opponent strength and the strong market consensus (France ~65% implied probability, Senegal ~13.5%) make a France win the most defensible outcome. Missing lineup, head-to-head and process data limit confidence but do not shift the core signal.70%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Recent form
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 65.2%, draw 21.3%, side B win 13.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-16T12:08:21Z -> 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.44, draw 4.3, side B 7.7; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 6.5; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.75, side B 7.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 34.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:
- 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
- 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
- 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
Check team ranking facts
#9
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check head-to-head
#11
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check team process facts
#12
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Check team process facts
#13
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Check detailed weather
#14
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check tournament context
#15
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. France vs Senegal group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: France 0 pts/0 played; Iraq 0 pts/0 played; Norway 0 pts/0 played; Senegal 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Senegal; Iraq vs Norway; France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
Recent-form analysis for France vs Senegal: France's last 5 show away wins over Colombia, Brazil, and Italy (all top-15 opponents) plus a home draw with Israel and a home friendly loss to Ivory Coast. Senegal's last 5 include home wins over Gambia and Peru, a home draw with Congo DR, an away win at Benin, and an away loss to the USA. Both teams enter with 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 and both lost their most recent friendly, but France's wins are against markedly stronger opposition. Odds heavily fa
France's recent form shows higher-quality wins away against elite opponents (Colombia, Brazil, Italy) compared to Senegal's wins over weaker sides (Gambia, Peru, Benin). Both teams lost their most recent friendly, but the gulf in opponent strength and the strong market consensus (France ~65% implied probability, Senegal ~13.5%) make a France win the most defensible outcome. Missing lineup, head-to-head and process data limit confidence but do not shift the core signal.

Conclusion note

France's last five matches include away wins against Colombia, Brazil and Italy, all top-tier opponents, while Senegal's recent wins came against lower-ranked sides such as Gambia, Peru and Benin. Although both teams lost their most recent friendly and lineups remain unconfirmed, the bookmaker consensus strongly backs France with a 65.2% implied win probability at this neutral venue in East Rutherford.

Participant calibration checkHome winThe odds consensus strongly backs France (65.2% implied probability) and their recent wins over Brazil, Colombia, Belgium and Italy confirm their superior level, but the most recent form — a home defeat to Ivory Coast — and Senegal's competitive recent matches introduce meaningful doubt. My calibration record shows medium-confidence picks have been wrong 78% of the time, so the confidence is deliberately set lower than the odds-implied probability to avoid overestimating the clarity of the evide48%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Participant calibration check
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 65.2%, draw 21.3%, side B win 13.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-16T12:08:21Z -> 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.44, draw 4.3, side B 7.7; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 6.5; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.75, side B 7.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 34.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:
- 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
- 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
- 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
Check match details
#9
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check head-to-head
#10
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check team ranking facts
#11
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#12
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check tournament context
#13
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. France vs Senegal group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: France 0 pts/0 played; Iraq 0 pts/0 played; Norway 0 pts/0 played; Senegal 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Senegal; Iraq vs Norway; France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
Read participant stats
#14
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z.
- data as of: 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z
- stats available: yes
- prediction stats:
  - all:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 5
    
    evaluated: 15
    
    previous predictions: 15
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 10
  - basis version: latest_effective_v1
  - by confidence bucket:
    
    high:
    
    accuracy: 0.6667
    
    correct: 2
    
    evaluated: 3
    
    previous predictions: 3
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 1
    
    low:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 1
    
    evaluated: 3
    
    previous predictions: 3
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 2
    
    medium:
    
    accuracy: 0.2222
    
    correct: 2
    
    evaluated: 9
    
    previous predictions: 9
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 7
  - by perspective used:
    
    Contrarian Evidence Check: 1
    
    Injury status and squad availability: 1
    
    Market Odds & Betting Sentiment: 1
    
    Market odds analysis: 2
    
    Market odds assessment: 1
    
    Market odds consensus and implied probabilities: 1
    
    Pre-Market Odds Assessment: 1
    
    Pre-Match Market Odds: 1
    
    Pre-match betting market odds and implied probabilities: 1
    
    Pre-match betting odds analysis: 1
    
    Pre-match market odds: 1
    
    Pre-match odds alignment: 1
    
    Pre-match odds analysis: 1
    
    Quality of recent opponents: 1
    
    Recent Form & Head-to-Head: 1
    
    Recent Form Against Varied Opposition: 1
    
    Recent Form and Performance Trends: 1
    
    Recent competitive form: 1
    
    Recent competitive form evaluation: 1
    
    Recent form and attacking/defensive metrics: 1
    
    Recent form and goal trends: 1
    
    Recent form and opponent quality comparison: 1
    
    Recent form comparison: 4
    
    Recent match form and momentum: 1
    
    Squad and injury landscape: 1
    
    Venue and weather assessment: 1
    
    market: 2
    
    rational: 2
  - by stage:
    
    group:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 5
    
    evaluated: 15
    
    previous predictions: 15
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 10
  - effective targets: 3 item(s).
    
    Item 1: t_minus_2h
    
    Item 2: t_minus_6h
    
    Item 3: t_minus_24h
  - excluded counts:
    
    no effective prediction: 89
    
    partial: 1
  - samples: 15 item(s).
    
    Item 1:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 2:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 3:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 4:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 5:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 6:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 7:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 8:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 9:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 10:
    
    score prediction distance: 4
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 11:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 12:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 13:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 14:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 15:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
  - scoreline:
    
    avg distance: 0.9333
    
    evaluated: 15
    
    hit rate: 0.4
    
    min distance: 0
    
    top3 hits: 6
  - target mix:
    
    t minus 24h: 7
    
    t minus 2h: 4
    
    t minus 6h: 4
  - selected:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 5
    
    evaluated: 15
    
    previous predictions: 15
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 10
Read recent decisions
#15
Recent decision history: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Recent decision records: 10 item(s).
- Recent decision 1 was a prediction for Spain vs Cape Verde Islands and picked side A win with confidence 0.883, recorded at 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 2 was a prediction for Austria vs Jordan and picked side A win with confidence 0.75, recorded at 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 3 was a prediction for Iran vs New Zealand and picked side A win with confidence 0.6, recorded at 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 4 was a prediction for Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay and picked side B win with confidence 0.66, recorded at 2026-06-14T22:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 5 was a prediction for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador and picked side A win with confidence 0.4, recorded at 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 6 was a prediction for Belgium vs Egypt and picked side A win with confidence 0.63, recorded at 2026-06-14T19:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 7 was a prediction for Netherlands vs Japan and picked side A win with confidence 0.46, recorded at 2026-06-14T18:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 8 was a prediction for Spain vs Cape Verde Islands and picked side A win with confidence 0.87, recorded at 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 9 was a prediction for Germany vs Curaçao and picked side A win with confidence 0.92, recorded at 2026-06-14T15:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 10 was a prediction for Germany vs Curaçao and picked side A win with confidence 0.92, recorded at 2026-06-14T11:00:00Z.
Check team process facts
#16
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Check team process facts
#17
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Check detailed weather
#18
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#19
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 65.2%, draw 21.3%, side B win 13.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-16T12:08:21Z -> 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.44, draw 4.3, side B 7.7; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 6.5; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.75, side B 7.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 34.
Check stadium history
#20
Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. match records: no items.
Recall memory
#21
Relevant memory: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. memory notes: 5 item(s).
- Item 1: Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late edition
  - relevance: 0.429
  - Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late edition
  - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 2: Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.286
  - Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: mex rsa group_a_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 3: Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.286
  - Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 4: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
  - relevance: 0.286
  - Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
  - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 5: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.286
  - Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
Recall previous predictions
#22
Previous prediction records: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. previous predictions: no items.
Calibration check for France vs Senegal: My historical 33% accuracy and notably poor medium-confidence record (22%) warn against over-weighting the clear-looking odds (65% implied for France). France's most recent result — a 1-2 home loss to Ivory Coast — and Senegal's competitive 2-3 loss to the USA suggest the gap may be narrower than the market implies. No H2H, no lineups, and no weather data add uncertainty. France remains the most likely winner, but the confidence will be tempered to avoid
The odds consensus strongly backs France (65.2% implied probability) and their recent wins over Brazil, Colombia, Belgium and Italy confirm their superior level, but the most recent form — a home defeat to Ivory Coast — and Senegal's competitive recent matches introduce meaningful doubt. My calibration record shows medium-confidence picks have been wrong 78% of the time, so the confidence is deliberately set lower than the odds-implied probability to avoid overestimating the clarity of the evide

Conclusion note

France are strong favourites according to the latest bookmaker consensus, with an implied win probability of about 65%, and their recent away wins against Colombia and Brazil highlight their quality. However, France's most recent match was a surprise 1-2 home defeat to Ivory Coast, and Senegal showed they can compete in a narrow 2-3 loss to the USA. With no head-to-head history, no confirmed lineups, and this being an opening group-stage fixture, the evidence supports a France win but with more uncertainty than the raw odds suggest — a caution reinforced by this participant's historical tendency to overestimate favourites in medium-confidence predictions.

Synthesis

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives independently pick France to win, though with varying confidence (market 0.65, recent form 0.70, calibration check 0.48). The market odds are stable and imply a dominant position for France; recent form highlights wins against top-tier teams but notes both sides lost their most recent friendlies. The calibration check lowers confidence due to a record of overestimating favorites and the opening-game uncertainty. Synthesizing these, a France win remains the best-supported o

DeepSeek V4 Pro · France vs Senegal

Analysis brief

Meta thinking

Perspectives

Analysis goal

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Analysis goal

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Analysis goal

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Compare bookmaker consensus

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Check recent form

Check recent form

Check match details

Check head-to-head

Check team ranking facts

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Check tournament context

Read participant stats

Read recent decisions

Check team process facts

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Check detailed weather

Compare bookmaker consensus

Check stadium history

Recall memory

Recall previous predictions

Synthesis