DeepSeek V4 Flash · France vs Senegal | WorldCupBench.ai

FrancevsSenegalJun 16, 19:00 UTC

DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable

PredictionHome win64%

BetHome win$510Aligned

Post-match result3-1

Net P&L+$253.2

PredictionConfidence: 64%

Home win

All three perspectives converge on a France win, supported by a 14-bookmaker consensus giving France a 63.8% implied probability. France's recent victories over Brazil, Colombia and Italy demonstrate top-level form, while Senegal's losses to Tanzania, Uganda and the USA highlight vulnerability against stronger opponents. No injuries or suspensions affect either side. The small market shift toward Senegal is not significant. Despite one perspective noting historical overconfidence, the overall evidence firmly favours France.

Bet

Home win$5102 bets

Net P&L+$253.2

Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned
Home win
$270
odds 1.52Settled: win+$140.4
Betting rationale：Posture: favourite conviction. Match script — France enter this World Cup opener with superior form (wins over Brazil, Colombia, Italy) and a clear talent advantage over Senegal. MetLife Stadium under clear skies suits their technical game. The model gives France a 63.8% win probability; while the Pinnacle price (1.52) offers no positive edge, the conviction is grounded in France's tournament class and the likelihood they impose their quality from the start. Senegal are organised but have shown
Payout: $410.4 · Balance after: $7,899.6
Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned
Home win
$240
odds 1.47Settled: win+$112.8
Betting rationale：Posture: cold value with favourite conviction. Match script: France enter as heavy favourites with strong recent scalps (Brazil, Colombia, Italy), while Senegal were inconsistent including a loss to the USA. The model gives France a 72% win probability, translating to a +4% edge at the executable Pinnacle price of 1.470. Group-stage opener uncertainty is already baked into the model's 0.720 confidence. The existing $270 at 1.520 was well-timed; adding another unit at still-positive edge expresse
Payout: $352.8 · Balance after: $8,252.4

Post-match result3-1

Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals

3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win

Home win 64%Draw 22%Away win 14%

Scoreline predictionsdistance 2

#11-0
#22-0
#31-1

Analysis brief

- At 63.8% implied probability, France are strong favourites in a market that shows consistent pricing across all 14 bookmakers. France's 6 wins in their last 10 matches include quality victories against top opposition, whereas Senegal's 5 wins came mostly against weaker sides and they lost to lower-ranked Tanzania and Uganda. The small movement away from France (-1.01pp) is not enough to suggest a value opportunity on Senegal. With full availability for both teams and no head-to-head record to di
- France's last five matches feature three wins including impressive results against Brazil and Colombia, a draw with Israel, and a friendly loss to Ivory Coast; Senegal's last five include wins over lower-ranked AFCON sides and Peru, but a loss to the USA. The quality gap in recent opposition and the odds consensus (France 63.8%, Senegal 14.3%) heavily favour France. No head-to-head records or availability issues are present to alter the balance. France's superior depth and top-level form make th
- Market odds, recent form strength against quality opponents, and Senegal's inconsistent results all point to a France victory. The participant's poor calibration history (0.25 accuracy overall) warrants a tempered confidence rather than full alignment with the ~64% market implied probability.

This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this prediction|Brier 0.20Log loss 0.45

Meta thinking

Market odds implied probabilitiesAnalyze the 14 captured pre-match odds to derive implied probabilities for each outcome (France win, draw, Senegal win). Compare these probabilities against expectations from recent form and team strength to identify any market mispricing or value opportunities.
Recent match form and contextCompare the last five matches for France and Senegal, accounting for opponent quality, competition type, and goal margins. France's wins over Brazil and Colombia and loss to Ivory Coast contrast with Senegal's Africa Cup of Nations form and defeat to USA.
Participant historical calibrationAssess the participant's past prediction accuracy (0.25 overall) and confidence calibration to determine if the current forecast may be overconfident or underconfident. Use the calibration data to weight the prediction appropriately.

Tokens: 4706

Perspectives

Market odds implied probabilitiesHome winAt 63.8% implied probability, France are strong favourites in a market that shows consistent pricing across all 14 bookmakers. France's 6 wins in their last 10 matches include quality victories against top opposition, whereas Senegal's 5 wins came mostly against weaker sides and they lost to lower-ranked Tanzania and Uganda. The small movement away from France (-1.01pp) is not enough to suggest a value opportunity on Senegal. With full availability for both teams and no head-to-head record to di68%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Market odds implied probabilities
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 63.8%, draw 21.9%, side B win 14.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:15:10Z -> 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.01pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win +0.91pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.48 / draw 4.3 / side B 6.6 → side A 1.48 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.5 / draw 4 / side B 6; bet365 side A 1.48 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.5, draw 4, side B 6; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.52, draw 4.5, side B 6.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-15T19:05:46Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.6°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 23%, wind 9.7 km/h.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:
- 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
- 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
- 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
Check team ranking facts
#9
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check tournament context
#11
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. France vs Senegal group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: France 0 pts/0 played; Iraq 0 pts/0 played; Norway 0 pts/0 played; Senegal 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Senegal; Iraq vs Norway; France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#12
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 63.8%, draw 21.9%, side B win 14.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:15:10Z -> 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.01pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win +0.91pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.48 / draw 4.3 / side B 6.6 → side A 1.48 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.5 / draw 4 / side B 6; bet365 side A 1.48 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.5, draw 4, side B 6; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.52, draw 4.5, side B 6.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.
Check stadium history
#13
Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. match records: no items.
Recall previous predictions
#14
Previous prediction records: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. previous predictions: no items.
Recall memory
#15
Relevant memory: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. memory notes: 5 item(s).
- Item 1: Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.429
  - Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 2: Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.143
  - Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: mex rsa group_a_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 3: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
  - relevance: 0.143
  - Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
  - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 4: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.143
  - Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 5: Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview edition
  - relevance: 0.143
  - Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview edition
  - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
Market odds implied probability perspective for France vs Senegal (World Cup Group I). Consensus at 63.8% France, 21.9% draw, 14.3% Senegal from 14 bookmaker samples. France slight -1.01pp movement, Senegal +0.91pp. Recent form: France 6W-1D-3L (beats over Brazil, Colombia, Italy away; loss to Ivory Coast most recent). Senegal 5W-1D-4L (losses to Tanzania, Uganda, USA). Quality differential favors France; market pricing broadly efficient with no clear mispricing. France win most defensible outco
At 63.8% implied probability, France are strong favourites in a market that shows consistent pricing across all 14 bookmakers. France's 6 wins in their last 10 matches include quality victories against top opposition, whereas Senegal's 5 wins came mostly against weaker sides and they lost to lower-ranked Tanzania and Uganda. The small movement away from France (-1.01pp) is not enough to suggest a value opportunity on Senegal. With full availability for both teams and no head-to-head record to di

Conclusion note

France are implied by the 14-bookmaker consensus at 63.8% to beat Senegal, reflecting a clear quality advantage based on recent form that includes wins over Brazil, Colombia, Italy and Belgium, while Senegal has suffered losses to Tanzania, Uganda and most recently the USA. The minor market drift of -1.01pp for France and +0.91pp for Senegal in the latest window does not signal a significant repricing, and with no injuries or suspensions on either side the odds appear broadly efficient with France as the clear favourite.

Recent match form and contextHome winFrance's last five matches feature three wins including impressive results against Brazil and Colombia, a draw with Israel, and a friendly loss to Ivory Coast; Senegal's last five include wins over lower-ranked AFCON sides and Peru, but a loss to the USA. The quality gap in recent opposition and the odds consensus (France 63.8%, Senegal 14.3%) heavily favour France. No head-to-head records or availability issues are present to alter the balance. France's superior depth and top-level form make th72%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Recent match form and context
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 63.8%, draw 21.9%, side B win 14.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:15:10Z -> 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.01pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win +0.91pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.48 / draw 4.3 / side B 6.6 → side A 1.48 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.5 / draw 4 / side B 6; bet365 side A 1.48 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.5, draw 4, side B 6; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.52, draw 4.5, side B 6.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-15T19:05:46Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.6°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 23%, wind 9.7 km/h.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:
- 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
- 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
- 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
Check match details
#9
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#11
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team process facts
#12
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Check team process facts
#13
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
France vs Senegal World Cup group stage analysis: France heavily favored at 63.8% implied probability by 14-bookmaker consensus. France's recent wins over Brazil, Colombia, and Italy in Nations League demonstrate top-class form, while Senegal's AFCON wins came against weaker opposition (Benin, Botswana, Congo DR) and they lost to USA. No injuries or suspensions for either side. Clear weather conditions at MetLife Stadium. Predicting France win.
France's last five matches feature three wins including impressive results against Brazil and Colombia, a draw with Israel, and a friendly loss to Ivory Coast; Senegal's last five include wins over lower-ranked AFCON sides and Peru, but a loss to the USA. The quality gap in recent opposition and the odds consensus (France 63.8%, Senegal 14.3%) heavily favour France. No head-to-head records or availability issues are present to alter the balance. France's superior depth and top-level form make th

Conclusion note

France enters as a strong favorite with 63.8% consensus implied probability across 14 bookmakers, reflecting their recent wins over Brazil, Colombia, and Italy in competitive Nations League matches. Senegal's recent form includes AFCON group-stage victories against Benin, Botswana, and Congo DR, but a defeat to the USA exposes vulnerability against higher-calibre opposition, and the market has moved slightly further toward Senegal only marginally (+0.91pp) while still clearly favouring France.

Participant historical calibrationHome winMarket odds, recent form strength against quality opponents, and Senegal's inconsistent results all point to a France victory. The participant's poor calibration history (0.25 accuracy overall) warrants a tempered confidence rather than full alignment with the ~64% market implied probability.60%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Participant historical calibration
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T19:04:27Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 63.8%, draw 21.9%, side B win 14.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:15:10Z -> 2026-06-16T08:07:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.01pp, draw +0.1pp, side B win +0.91pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.48 / draw 4.3 / side B 6.6 → side A 1.48 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.8; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.5 / draw 4 / side B 6; bet365 side A 1.48 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 6.8; william_hill: side A 1.5, draw 4, side B 6; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.52, draw 4.5, side B 6.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-15T19:05:46Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.6°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 23%, wind 9.7 km/h.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:
- 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
- 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
- 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
- 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
Check tournament context
#9
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. France vs Senegal group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: France 0 pts/0 played; Iraq 0 pts/0 played; Norway 0 pts/0 played; Senegal 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Senegal; Iraq vs Norway; France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#11
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Read participant stats
#12
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z.
- data as of: 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z
- stats available: yes
- prediction stats:
  - all:
    
    accuracy: 0.25
    
    correct: 4
    
    evaluated: 16
    
    previous predictions: 16
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 12
  - basis version: latest_effective_v1
  - by confidence bucket:
    
    high:
    
    accuracy: 0.25
    
    correct: 1
    
    evaluated: 4
    
    previous predictions: 4
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 3
    
    low:
    
    accuracy: 0
    
    correct: 0
    
    evaluated: 3
    
    previous predictions: 3
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 3
    
    medium:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 3
    
    evaluated: 9
    
    previous predictions: 9
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 6
  - by perspective used:
    
    Altitude and weather influence: 1
    
    Competitive match intensity analysis: 1
    
    Environmental Factors: 1
    
    Historical prediction track record oversight: 1
    
    Host nation influence assessment: 1
    
    Market Odds Analysis: 1
    
    Market Odds and Value Assessment: 1
    
    Market implied probabilities from captured odds: 1
    
    Market odds: 1
    
    Market odds analysis: 1
    
    Market odds assessment: 1
    
    Market odds distribution and consensus: 1
    
    Market odds evaluation: 2
    
    Market odds implied probabilities: 2
    
    Match Environment Factors: 1
    
    Recent Form Evaluation: 1
    
    Recent Form and Strength of Schedule: 1
    
    Recent form and opponent quality: 1
    
    Recent form and performance indicators: 1
    
    Recent form comparison: 2
    
    Recent friendly form and performance: 1
    
    Recent friendly form and scoring patterns: 1
    
    Recent match form analysis: 1
    
    Recent match form and opponent quality: 1
    
    Recent match records in context: 1
    
    Recent result form comparison: 1
    
    market: 4
    
    rational: 4
  - by stage:
    
    group:
    
    accuracy: 0.25
    
    correct: 4
    
    evaluated: 16
    
    previous predictions: 16
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 12
  - effective targets: 3 item(s).
    
    Item 1: t_minus_2h
    
    Item 2: t_minus_6h
    
    Item 3: t_minus_24h
  - excluded counts:
    
    no effective prediction: 88
    
    partial: 1
  - samples: 16 item(s).
    
    Item 1:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 2:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 3:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 4:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 5:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 6:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 7:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 8:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 9:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 10:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 11:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 12:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 13:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 14:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 15:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 16:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
  - scoreline:
    
    avg distance: 1.3125
    
    evaluated: 16
    
    hit rate: 0.1875
    
    min distance: 0
    
    top3 hits: 3
  - target mix:
    
    t minus 24h: 6
    
    t minus 2h: 4
    
    t minus 6h: 6
  - selected:
    
    accuracy: 0.25
    
    correct: 4
    
    evaluated: 16
    
    previous predictions: 16
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 12
Recall memory
#13
Relevant memory: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. memory notes: 5 item(s).
- Item 1: Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.625
  - Post-match reflection South Korea vs Czech Republic Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: kor cze group_a_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 2: Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.375
  - Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: mex rsa group_a_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 3: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
  - relevance: 0.375
  - Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview edition
  - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 4: Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable edition
  - relevance: 0.375
  - Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable edition
  - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
- Item 5: Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview edition
  - relevance: 0.375
  - Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview edition
  - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1.
  - Original Judgment
Read recent decisions
#14
Recent decision history: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Recent decision records: 10 item(s).
- Recent decision 1 was a prediction for Austria vs Jordan and picked side A win with confidence 0.74, recorded at 2026-06-16T04:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 2 was a prediction for Spain vs Cape Verde Islands and picked side A win with confidence 0.88, recorded at 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 3 was a prediction for Iran vs New Zealand and picked side A win with confidence 0.65, recorded at 2026-06-15T01:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 4 was a prediction for Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay and picked side B win with confidence 0.67, recorded at 2026-06-14T22:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 5 was a prediction for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador and picked side B win with confidence 0.38, recorded at 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 6 was a prediction for Belgium vs Egypt and picked side A win with confidence 0.66, recorded at 2026-06-14T19:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 7 was a prediction for Netherlands vs Japan and picked side A win with confidence 0.5, recorded at 2026-06-14T18:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 8 was a prediction for Spain vs Cape Verde Islands and picked side A win with confidence 0.872, recorded at 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 9 was a prediction for Germany vs Curaçao and picked side A win with confidence 0.92, recorded at 2026-06-14T15:00:00Z.
- Recent decision 10 was a prediction for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador and picked side B win with confidence 0.377, recorded at 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z.
This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.
Market odds, recent form strength against quality opponents, and Senegal's inconsistent results all point to a France victory. The participant's poor calibration history (0.25 accuracy overall) warrants a tempered confidence rather than full alignment with the ~64% market implied probability.

Conclusion note

France are strong favourites with consensus odds implying a 63.8% win probability, backed by recent victories over Brazil, Italy, Belgium and Colombia. Senegal arrive with mixed form including a friendly loss to the USA and defeats to Tanzania and Uganda, while no head-to-head records or injury concerns alter the balance. The participant's historical accuracy is only 25%, indicating a tendency toward overconfidence, so confidence is set at a moderate level despite the clear evidence favouring France.

Synthesis

Reasoning summary: The three perspectives (market odds, recent form, and calibration history) all indicate a France victory. Market odds imply France has a 63.8% chance. Recent form contrasts France's high-quality wins with Senegal's inconsistent results. The calibration perspective warns of overconfidence, but the tangible evidence consistently points to France as the strong favourite. Hence France win is the most probable outcome.

DeepSeek V4 Flash · France vs Senegal

Analysis brief

Meta thinking

Perspectives

Analysis goal

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Recall previous predictions

Recall memory

Analysis goal

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Analysis goal

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Compare bookmaker consensus

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Read participant stats

Recall memory

Read recent decisions

Synthesis