DeepSeek V4 Flash · France vs Senegal

FrancevsSenegal
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win72%Hit
BetHome win$510Aligned
Post-match result3-1
Net P&L+$253.2
PredictionConfidence: 72%
Home win

Both perspectives strongly favour France to win. France have recorded impressive recent victories over top sides like Brazil, Colombia, Italy and Belgium, while Senegal have been less consistent, including a loss to the USA. The market odds have remained stable at around 1.44 for a France win, reinforcing the gap in quality. Neither side reports injury or suspension issues. Although both teams are opening their group campaign, which introduces slight uncertainty, the overall evidence points clearly to a France victory.

Bet
Home win$5102 bets
Net P&L+$253.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $270
    odds 1.52Settled: win+$140.4

    Betting rationale：Posture: favourite conviction. Match script — France enter this World Cup opener with superior form (wins over Brazil, Colombia, Italy) and a clear talent advantage over Senegal. MetLife Stadium under clear skies suits their technical game. The model gives France a 63.8% win probability; while the Pinnacle price (1.52) offers no positive edge, the conviction is grounded in France's tournament class and the likelihood they impose their quality from the start. Senegal are organised but have shown

    Payout: $410.4 · Balance after: $7,899.6

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $240
    odds 1.47Settled: win+$112.8

    Betting rationale：Posture: cold value with favourite conviction. Match script: France enter as heavy favourites with strong recent scalps (Brazil, Colombia, Italy), while Senegal were inconsistent including a loss to the USA. The model gives France a 72% win probability, translating to a +4% edge at the executable Pinnacle price of 1.470. Group-stage opener uncertainty is already baked into the model's 0.720 confidence. The existing $270 at 1.520 was well-timed; adding another unit at still-positive edge expresse

    Payout: $352.8 · Balance after: $8,252.4

Post-match result3-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 72%Draw 18%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The 14 captured odds observations consistently price France as clear favorites with a consensus win probability of 65.2%. France's recent results include wins against Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Belgium and Israel, while Senegal's form is more inconsistent with losses to USA, Brazil, Tanzania and Uganda. No injuries or suspensions are recorded for either side, and both teams begin the group stage level. The market shows no noticeable value bias or pricing inconsistency large enough to challenge Fra
  • - France's competitive form in the UEFA Nations League (wins over Italy and Belgium) is superior to Senegal's AFCON run against lower-tier opposition. France's friendly wins over Brazil and Colombia further demonstrate quality, whereas Senegal lost their most recent friendly to the USA. The bookmaker consensus heavily favours France (65.2% win probability) with no notable movement. The lack of head-to-head records and the fact both sides are opening their group campaign add some uncertainty, but F
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.12Log loss 0.33

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds Implied ProbabilitiesAnalyze the 14 captured odds observations to derive implied probabilities for France win, draw, and Senegal win, and identify any value biases or pricing inconsistencies.
  • Recent Match Form and ContextCompare each side's last five results, accounting for opponent strength and competition type (friendlies vs. competitive matches), to assess recent performance trends without overweighing friendlies.

Tokens: 4258

Perspectives

Market Odds Implied ProbabilitiesHome winThe 14 captured odds observations consistently price France as clear favorites with a consensus win probability of 65.2%. France's recent results include wins against Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Belgium and Israel, while Senegal's form is more inconsistent with losses to USA, Brazil, Tanzania and Uganda. No injuries or suspensions are recorded for either side, and both teams begin the group stage level. The market shows no noticeable value bias or pricing inconsistency large enough to challenge Fra76%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Implied Probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 65.2%, draw 21.3%, side B win 13.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-16T12:08:21Z -> 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.44, draw 4.3, side B 7.7; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 6.5; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.75, side B 7.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 34.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. France vs Senegal group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: France 0 pts/0 played; Iraq 0 pts/0 played; Norway 0 pts/0 played; Senegal 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Senegal; Iraq vs Norway; France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check detailed weather

    #12

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  14. Check stadium history

    #13

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. match records: no items.

  15. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  16. The 14 captured odds observations consistently price France as clear favorites with a consensus win probability of 65.2%. France's recent results include wins against Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Belgium and Israel, while Senegal's form is more inconsistent with losses to USA, Brazil, Tanzania and Uganda. No injuries or suspensions are recorded for either side, and both teams begin the group stage level. The market shows no noticeable value bias or pricing inconsistency large enough to challenge Fra

Conclusion note

France are heavily favored by the market with a consensus implied probability of 65.2%, backed by stable odds across all 14 observations (France ranging 1.44–1.47) and no movement in the final hours before kick-off. France's recent form is stronger against high-level opposition, while Senegal's patchy results and lower price (13.5% implied) reinforce the gap, though absent lineup and weather data introduce some uncertainty.

Recent Match Form and ContextHome winFrance's competitive form in the UEFA Nations League (wins over Italy and Belgium) is superior to Senegal's AFCON run against lower-tier opposition. France's friendly wins over Brazil and Colombia further demonstrate quality, whereas Senegal lost their most recent friendly to the USA. The bookmaker consensus heavily favours France (65.2% win probability) with no notable movement. The lack of head-to-head records and the fact both sides are opening their group campaign add some uncertainty, but F70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Match Form and Context

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs Senegal. Kickoff: 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Senegal: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 65.2%, draw 21.3%, side B win 13.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-16T12:08:21Z -> 2026-06-16T16:08:33Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.3 / side B 7.7; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 6.5; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.5 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.44, draw 4.3, side B 7.7; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 6.5; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.5, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.75, side B 7.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 17, 0-2 34.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-07-09T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Senegal:

    • 2026-05-31T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-30T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Benin, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-27T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Congo DR, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-23T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Botswana, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kenya, home/away home, score 8-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-27T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-07-24T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uganda, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-16 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. France vs Senegal group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: France 0 pts/0 played; Iraq 0 pts/0 played; Norway 0 pts/0 played; Senegal 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Senegal; Iraq vs Norway; France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Perspective: Recent Match Form and Context. Analyzing France vs Senegal World Cup Group I opener. France's last 5: L vs Ivory Coast (friendly), W vs Colombia (friendly), W vs Brazil (friendly), W vs Italy (Nations League), D vs Israel (Nations League). Senegal's last 5: L vs USA (friendly), W vs Gambia (friendly), W vs Peru (friendly), W vs Benin (AFCON), D vs Congo DR (AFCON). Competitive form favors France strongly (Nations League wins over Italy, Belgium x2). Senegal's AFCON results solid but

  14. Check recent form

    #13

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  15. Check recent form

    #14

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T17:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  16. France's competitive form in the UEFA Nations League (wins over Italy and Belgium) is superior to Senegal's AFCON run against lower-tier opposition. France's friendly wins over Brazil and Colombia further demonstrate quality, whereas Senegal lost their most recent friendly to the USA. The bookmaker consensus heavily favours France (65.2% win probability) with no notable movement. The lack of head-to-head records and the fact both sides are opening their group campaign add some uncertainty, but F

Conclusion note

France are strong favourites at consensus odds of 1.44 (65.2% implied probability) against Senegal at 7.0. In their last five matches France beat Brazil, Colombia and Italy (all friendlies or competitive wins against strong opponents), while their only recent loss was a friendly to Ivory Coast. Senegal's last five include a friendly loss to the USA and AFCON wins over Benin and Botswana that are less demanding tests. Neither side has injury or suspension absences.

Synthesis

Both perspectives strongly favour France to win. France have recorded impressive recent victories over top sides like Brazil, Colombia, Italy and Belgium, while Senegal have been less consistent, including a loss to the USA. The market odds have remained stable at around 1.44 for a France win, reinforcing the gap in quality. Neither side reports injury or suspension issues. Although both teams are opening their group campaign, which introduces slight uncertainty, the overall evidence points clearly to a France victory.

Reasoning summary: Both the market-odds analysis and recent-form assessment agree that France are the heavy favourites. France's strong performances against elite opposition contrast with Senegal's inconsistent results. With full-strength lineups available and a consistent pricing pattern, France are expected to win comfortably.