MiMo V2.5 Pro · Norway vs France

NorwayvsFrance
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win59%Hit
BetAway win$200Aligned
Post-match result1-4
Net P&L+$128
PredictionConfidence: 59%
Away win

France is the clear favorite with 58.7% implied win probability from bookmaker consensus, supported by recent victories over Brazil and Italy, while Norway's unbeaten run and defensive solidity add uncertainty but not enough to challenge the market assessment.

Bet
Away win$200
Net P&L+$128
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $200
    odds 1.64Settled: win+$128

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction. France are the clear favorites with 62% predicted win probability backed by proven quality wins over Brazil, Colombia, and Italy in recent matches. Norway's form looks solid but came against weaker opposition (Senegal, Iraq). Execution odds at Pinnacle (1.640) align closely with the model's probability, offering a small positive edge (+0.010). France's pedigree in major tournaments and superior head-to-head quality make this a confident play at moderate sta

    Payout: $328 · Balance after: $6,176

Post-match result1-4
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 20%Draw 21%Away win 59%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #10-1
  2. #20-2
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The betting market shows strong and consistent consensus favoring France at 58.7% implied probability across 14 bookmakers, with Norway at only 20.1%; while there was modest late movement of -1.1pp toward Norway between the two visible update times, this represents only a minor drift within the broader picture of France being priced as clear favorites at odds of 1.57-1.64; France's recent competitive wins against Brazil and Italy support the market's preference, leading to a France win predictio
  • - The recent form comparison shows France with a higher win rate (4/5 vs 3/5) and wins over stronger opponents (Brazil, Colombia, Italy vs Iraq, Sweden, Senegal), though Norway's unbeaten run and tighter defense add uncertainty. France's slightly superior goal-scoring rate (2.4 vs 2.2 per game) and the substantial bookmaker edge (58.7% vs 20.1%) support a France win, but Norway's form limits confidence to moderate levels.
  • - From a squad availability perspective, both Norway and France show no injury or suspension records in the current snapshot, meaning neither team has a reported absence that would weaken their expected lineup. France remains the clear market favorite at 58.7% implied probability, and without any visible availability concerns for Les Bleus, their superior squad depth and quality advantage should hold. The main uncertainty is that lineups have not yet been captured, preventing full confirmation of

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 14.7%; Norway win 78.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.26Log loss 0.53

Meta thinking

  • Market odds dynamicsAnalyze the 13 captured betting odds observations to gauge market sentiment and identify any notable shifts or value indicators for the Norway vs France fixture.
  • Recent team form comparisonReview the last five match records for Norway and France to compare their recent performances, including results, goals scored, and conceded, to assess current momentum.
  • Squad availability assessmentCheck the injury reports and lineup capture status to determine if there are any reported absences or risks that could influence team strength and match outcome.

Tokens: 3135

Perspectives

Market odds dynamicsAway winThe betting market shows strong and consistent consensus favoring France at 58.7% implied probability across 14 bookmakers, with Norway at only 20.1%; while there was modest late movement of -1.1pp toward Norway between the two visible update times, this represents only a minor drift within the broader picture of France being priced as clear favorites at odds of 1.57-1.64; France's recent competitive wins against Brazil and Italy support the market's preference, leading to a France win predictio62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds dynamics

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NOR vs France. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 20.1%, draw 21.2%, side B win 58.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T06:00:18Z -> 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.83pp, draw +0.26pp, side B win -1.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 4.85 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.58 → side A 4.65 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.61; william_hill side A 4.6 / draw 4.4 / side B 1.57 → side A 4.5 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.62; bet365 side A 5 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.55 → side A 4.75 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.65, draw 4.3, side B 1.61; william_hill: side A 4.5, draw 4.33, side B 1.62; bet365: side A 4.75, draw 4.75, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 4.9, draw 4.7, side B 1.64. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.1.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:13:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 25.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 70%, wind 11.7 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  10. The betting market shows strong and consistent consensus favoring France at 58.7% implied probability across 14 bookmakers, with Norway at only 20.1%; while there was modest late movement of -1.1pp toward Norway between the two visible update times, this represents only a minor drift within the broader picture of France being priced as clear favorites at odds of 1.57-1.64; France's recent competitive wins against Brazil and Italy support the market's preference, leading to a France win predictio

Conclusion note

France is the clear market favorite at 58.7% implied probability across 14 bookmakers, with consensus odds showing a substantial gap over Norway's 20.1% win probability; although France's odds drifted slightly longer by 1.1 percentage points between the 06:00 and 08:03 UTC updates, this minor movement does not challenge France's dominant position as favorite, and their recent wins over Brazil and Italy reinforce the market's assessment.

Recent team form comparisonAway winThe recent form comparison shows France with a higher win rate (4/5 vs 3/5) and wins over stronger opponents (Brazil, Colombia, Italy vs Iraq, Sweden, Senegal), though Norway's unbeaten run and tighter defense add uncertainty. France's slightly superior goal-scoring rate (2.4 vs 2.2 per game) and the substantial bookmaker edge (58.7% vs 20.1%) support a France win, but Norway's form limits confidence to moderate levels.56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent team form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NOR vs France. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 20.1%, draw 21.2%, side B win 58.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T06:00:18Z -> 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.83pp, draw +0.26pp, side B win -1.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 4.85 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.58 → side A 4.65 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.61; william_hill side A 4.6 / draw 4.4 / side B 1.57 → side A 4.5 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.62; bet365 side A 5 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.55 → side A 4.75 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.65, draw 4.3, side B 1.61; william_hill: side A 4.5, draw 4.33, side B 1.62; bet365: side A 4.75, draw 4.75, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 4.9, draw 4.7, side B 1.64. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.1.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:13:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 25.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 70%, wind 11.7 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. The recent form comparison shows France with a higher win rate (4/5 vs 3/5) and wins over stronger opponents (Brazil, Colombia, Italy vs Iraq, Sweden, Senegal), though Norway's unbeaten run and tighter defense add uncertainty. France's slightly superior goal-scoring rate (2.4 vs 2.2 per game) and the substantial bookmaker edge (58.7% vs 20.1%) support a France win, but Norway's form limits confidence to moderate levels.

Conclusion note

France have won four of their last five matches including impressive away victories over Brazil (2-1), Colombia (3-1), and Italy (3-1), demonstrating strong form against top-level opposition, while Norway are unbeaten in their last five (W3 D2) but faced comparatively weaker opponents such as Iraq and Sweden; the bookmaker consensus gives France a 58.7% implied win probability compared to Norway's 20.1%, and although Norway's unbeaten streak and strong defensive record (1.0 goals conceded per game in last five) suggest they will be competitive, France's superior attacking output (2.4 goals per game) and quality of recent results favor Les Bleus.

Squad availability assessmentAway winFrom a squad availability perspective, both Norway and France show no injury or suspension records in the current snapshot, meaning neither team has a reported absence that would weaken their expected lineup. France remains the clear market favorite at 58.7% implied probability, and without any visible availability concerns for Les Bleus, their superior squad depth and quality advantage should hold. The main uncertainty is that lineups have not yet been captured, preventing full confirmation of55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NOR vs France. Kickoff: 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 20.1%, draw 21.2%, side B win 58.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T06:00:18Z -> 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.83pp, draw +0.26pp, side B win -1.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 4.85 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.58 → side A 4.65 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.61; william_hill side A 4.6 / draw 4.4 / side B 1.57 → side A 4.5 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.62; bet365 side A 5 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.55 → side A 4.75 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.65, draw 4.3, side B 1.61; william_hill: side A 4.5, draw 4.33, side B 1.62; bet365: side A 4.75, draw 4.75, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 4.9, draw 4.7, side B 1.64. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.1.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:13:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 25.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 70%, wind 11.7 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 20.1%, draw 21.2%, side B win 58.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T06:00:18Z -> 2026-06-26T08:03:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.83pp, draw +0.26pp, side B win -1.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 4.85 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.58 → side A 4.65 / draw 4.3 / side B 1.61; william_hill side A 4.6 / draw 4.4 / side B 1.57 → side A 4.5 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.62; bet365 side A 5 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.55 → side A 4.75 / draw 4.75 / side B 1.57. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 4.65, draw 4.3, side B 1.61; william_hill: side A 4.5, draw 4.33, side B 1.62; bet365: side A 4.75, draw 4.75, side B 1.57; marathonbet: side A 4.9, draw 4.7, side B 1.64. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.05 / under 7.1.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. From a squad availability perspective, both Norway and France show no injury or suspension records in the current snapshot, meaning neither team has a reported absence that would weaken their expected lineup. France remains the clear market favorite at 58.7% implied probability, and without any visible availability concerns for Les Bleus, their superior squad depth and quality advantage should hold. The main uncertainty is that lineups have not yet been captured, preventing full confirmation of

Conclusion note

France enters as a strong bookmaker favorite with 58.7% implied probability, and the squad availability check reveals no visible injuries or suspensions for either Norway or France, suggesting both teams could field full-strength lineups; however, lineups have not yet been captured, so there is residual uncertainty about final team selections that slightly tempers confidence in the predicted France victory.

Synthesis

France is the clear favorite with 58.7% implied win probability from bookmaker consensus, supported by recent victories over Brazil and Italy, while Norway's unbeaten run and defensive solidity add uncertainty but not enough to challenge the market assessment.

Reasoning summary: The synthesis of market odds, recent form, and squad availability perspectives all point to a France win, with moderate confidence driven by France's strong performance against top teams and no reported injuries or suspensions for either side.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: France win 63.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 64.0%; draw 22.0%; Senegal win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 14.7%; Norway win 78.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50