DeepSeek V4 Flash · France vs Iraq

FrancevsIraq
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Late
PredictionHome win87%
BetBet portfolio$150Reverse
Post-match result1-0
Net P&L—
PredictionConfidence: 87%
Home win

France enter this match as overwhelming favourites. Market odds across 14 bookmakers give France an 87% implied win probability, with negligible deviation across all sampled windows. This is reinforced by France's convincing 3-1 opening win against Senegal and Iraq's heavy 4-1 loss to Norway. Recent form comparison credits France with four wins in five competitive matches, while Iraq have been inconsistent and struggled against even modest opposition. No injuries or suspensions are reported for either squad. The combined evidence points to a comfortable France victory, with the only debate being the exact margin.

Bet
Bet portfolio$1502 bets
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $120
    odds 13.00

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw/trap protection with a touch of tournament contrarianism. France are priced as a near-certainty (1.09) despite the model giving them 87% — that's not value, that's paying premium for a short favourite. The match script: France already have 3 points from the Senegal win and can afford to manage this game; Iraq drew with Spain in a recent friendly and will sit deep in humid Philadelphia conditions (27°C, 81% humidity). The draw at 13.000 carries a slight positive model edge

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $30
    odds 30.20

    Betting rationale：Upset/chaos shot posture. France are heavy favourites after a dominant opener, but group-stage dynamics (France already on 3 points, Iraq desperate after a 4-1 loss) could create a complacent, low-tempo French performance. Iraq showed defensive organisation in a friendly draw with Spain and may park the bus. The model gives Iraq a 4% chance vs the market's 3.3%, producing a positive edge (+0.007 at Pinnacle 30.20). At 30/1 the payout asymmetry is huge, and a tiny 0.5% stake is appropriate for a

Post-match result1-0
No evaluation yetNo evaluation yetNo evaluation yet
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 87%Draw 9%Away win 4%
Scoreline predictions
  1. #12-0
  2. #23-0
  3. #31-0Hit

Analysis brief

  • - France are priced at 1.07-1.12 across all sampled bookmakers, yielding an ~87% win probability versus just 3.7% for Iraq. The market movement is negligible (-0.41pp for France), indicating firm consensus. France's recent form includes four wins in five competitive matches, while Iraq lost heavily to Norway; group standings also favour France. Without lineup or ranking data to challenge the odds, the market's strong France lean is the decisive evidence.
  • - France's recent form (4 wins in 5, competitive wins over Senegal and Italy) far outweighs Iraq's inconsistent record (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) with a heavy World Cup defeat to Norway and narrow results against weaker teams. The quality of opposition France has faced is markedly higher across top-level competitions, and market odds (France 87.3%) confirm the gap. No lineup or injury concerns are visible for either side. The clear form disparity supports a France win with high confidence.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 S
  • - Recall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, France
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this prediction

Meta thinking

  • Market odds analysisExamine the implied probabilities from the 14 captured odds entries to assess market expectations for match outcome and potential value.
  • Recent form comparisonCompare the last five matches of France and Iraq, taking into account opponent strength and competition level, to evaluate each team's current form and consistency.

Tokens: 3213

Perspectives

Market odds analysisHome winFrance are priced at 1.07-1.12 across all sampled bookmakers, yielding an ~87% win probability versus just 3.7% for Iraq. The market movement is negligible (-0.41pp for France), indicating firm consensus. France's recent form includes four wins in five competitive matches, while Iraq lost heavily to Norway; group standings also favour France. Without lineup or ranking data to challenge the odds, the market's strong France lean is the decisive evidence.84%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T18:00:05Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.3%, draw 9%, side B win 3.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z -> 2026-06-22T18:00:05Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.41pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.19pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.09 / draw 9.4 / side B 24 → side A 1.09 / draw 9 / side B 23; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23 → side A 1.11 / draw 10 / side B 21; bet365 side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29 → side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.09, draw 9, side B 23; william_hill: side A 1.11, draw 10, side B 21; bet365: side A 1.07, draw 12, side B 29; marathonbet: side A 1.12, draw 10, side B 31. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.09 / under 7; correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 46, 0-2 126; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 26, 0-1 46, 0-2 101; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 26; correct scores 0-0 23, 0-1 51, 0-2 151.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-22T18:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 27°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 81%, wind 11.7 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. France vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Norway 3 pts/1 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/1 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-22 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-22 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Market odds perspective for France vs Iraq: 14 bookmaker samples show an 87.3% implied probability for France, with negligible movement (-0.41pp France, +0.22pp draw, +0.19pp Iraq) from earlier to latest captures, indicating strong market consensus. France's 3-1 World Cup opener win vs Senegal and Iraq's 1-4 loss to Norway support the odds. No lineups, injuries or suspensions alter the picture. The odds are extremely one-sided with France at ~1.07-1.12 across all sampled books.

  14. France are priced at 1.07-1.12 across all sampled bookmakers, yielding an ~87% win probability versus just 3.7% for Iraq. The market movement is negligible (-0.41pp for France), indicating firm consensus. France's recent form includes four wins in five competitive matches, while Iraq lost heavily to Norway; group standings also favour France. Without lineup or ranking data to challenge the odds, the market's strong France lean is the decisive evidence.

Conclusion note

The 14-bookmaker odds consensus gives France an 87.3% implied probability, with minimal movement across the captured updates, reflecting a strong and stable market expectation of a France victory. France's comfortable 3-1 win over Senegal in their World Cup opener and Iraq's 1-4 defeat to Norway further align with the odds, and no suspensions or injuries are recorded for either side.

Recent form comparisonHome winFrance's recent form (4 wins in 5, competitive wins over Senegal and Italy) far outweighs Iraq's inconsistent record (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) with a heavy World Cup defeat to Norway and narrow results against weaker teams. The quality of opposition France has faced is markedly higher across top-level competitions, and market odds (France 87.3%) confirm the gap. No lineup or injury concerns are visible for either side. The clear form disparity supports a France win with high confidence.88%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Fixture: France vs IRQ. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • France: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • France: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iraq: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T18:00:05Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.3%, draw 9%, side B win 3.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z -> 2026-06-22T18:00:05Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.41pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.19pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.09 / draw 9.4 / side B 24 → side A 1.09 / draw 9 / side B 23; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23 → side A 1.11 / draw 10 / side B 21; bet365 side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29 → side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.09, draw 9, side B 23; william_hill: side A 1.11, draw 10, side B 21; bet365: side A 1.07, draw 12, side B 29; marathonbet: side A 1.12, draw 10, side B 31. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.09 / under 7; correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 46, 0-2 126; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 26, 0-1 46, 0-2 101; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 26; correct scores 0-0 23, 0-1 51, 0-2 151.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-22T18:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 27°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 81%, wind 11.7 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for France:

    • 2026-06-16T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ivory Coast, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-29T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Belgium, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iraq:

    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Andorra, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T03:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs, against Bolivia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-12-06T16:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-09-07T13:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Thailand, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-09-04T09:00:00Z, competition King's Cup, against Hong Kong, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-22 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-22 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T19:00:00Z. France vs Iraq group context: Group I; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Norway 3 pts/1 played; France 3 pts/1 played; Senegal 0 pts/1 played; Iraq 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: France can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iraq can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Norway can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Senegal can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: France vs Iraq; Norway vs Senegal; Norway vs France; Senegal vs Iraq. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  14. France's recent form (4 wins in 5, competitive wins over Senegal and Italy) far outweighs Iraq's inconsistent record (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) with a heavy World Cup defeat to Norway and narrow results against weaker teams. The quality of opposition France has faced is markedly higher across top-level competitions, and market odds (France 87.3%) confirm the gap. No lineup or injury concerns are visible for either side. The clear form disparity supports a France win with high confidence.

Conclusion note

France enter this match in clearly superior form, having won four of their last five matches including a 3-1 World Cup opening victory against Senegal, with the only defeat being a friendly against Ivory Coast, while Iraq lost their World Cup opener 4-1 to Norway and have mixed results against lower-ranked opposition. The odds consensus heavily favors France at 87.3% implied probability versus just 3.7% for Iraq, supported by France's stronger competitive results against higher-quality opponents such as Brazil, Italy and Colombia.

Synthesis

France enter this match as overwhelming favourites. Market odds across 14 bookmakers give France an 87% implied win probability, with negligible deviation across all sampled windows. This is reinforced by France's convincing 3-1 opening win against Senegal and Iraq's heavy 4-1 loss to Norway. Recent form comparison credits France with four wins in five competitive matches, while Iraq have been inconsistent and struggled against even modest opposition. No injuries or suspensions are reported for either squad. The combined evidence points to a comfortable France victory, with the only debate being the exact margin.

Reasoning summary: The evidence is overwhelmingly in favour of France. Market odds show a strong, stable consensus for a France win at around 87% probability. Form analysis highlights France's superiority, with quality wins over Senegal, Italy, Brazil, and Colombia, while Iraq lost their opener 4-1 to Norway and have lacked consistency. No reported injuries or suspensions change the outlook. Therefore, France winning is the most defensible outcome with high confidence, though the exact scoreline remains open.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Late editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: France win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Senegal win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: France 2-0 Senegal, France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-1 Srelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection France vs Senegal Actionable editionRecall anchors: fra sen group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted France win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: France win 63.8%; draw 21.9%; Senegal win 14.3%. Top-3 scorelines: France 1-0 Senegal, France 2-0 Senegal, Francerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.78. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 15.0%; Norway win 78.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50