MiMo V2.5 Pro · Uruguay vs Spain

UruguayvsSpain
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionAway win63%Hit
BetBet portfolio$500Bet portfolio
Post-match result0-1
Net P&L-$500
PredictionConfidence: 63%
Away win

Spain are clear favorites against Uruguay based on overwhelming bookmaker support (62.9% implied probability), superior recent form (unbeaten in five matches with only one goal conceded), and Uruguay's injury doubts in key positions (de Arrascaeta and Araujo). However, Uruguay have drawn seven of their last ten matches, which elevates the draw probability to 23.3% and prevents a higher confidence in a Spain victory. The neutral venue in Guadalajara adds a slight uncertainty factor, but Spain's consistent performance and full squad availability make a Spain win the most likely outcome.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5002 bets
Net P&L-$500
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 6.25Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Contrarian value play on Uruguay. Model sees 58% probability for Uruguay win but market implies only ~16% at Pinnacle 6.250 — massive edge of +0.420. Match script: altitude at 1566m favors the home side, Uruguay are desperate for a result to advance, and Spain may be content with a draw given their group position. Uruguay's string of draws shows they're competitive, not broken. Already holding $200 on draw, so adding Uruguay creates a hedge where both Uruguay and draw wins prof

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,966.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 4.02Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Draw trap protection play. Uruguay have drawn 7 of their last 10 matches including four consecutive draws before the USA anomaly. Spain are favorites but have shown vulnerability (0-0 vs Cape Verde). At altitude in Guadalajara, Uruguay's compact defensive style should frustrate Spanish possession. The 4.02 odds align closely with model's 23% draw probability. Match script strongly supports Uruguay grinding out a stalemate.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,966.9

Post-match result0-1
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 14%Draw 23%Away win 63%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #10-1Hit
  2. #21-1
  3. #30-2

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the stark contrast in recent form: Spain are unbeaten in five with a 0.2 goals-conceded average per match and two convincing wins, whereas Uruguay have won none of their last five and draw habitually. Uruguay's injury concerns and the bookmaker consensus heavily backing Spain at 62.9% implied probability reinforce the form differential. However, Uruguay's persistent drawing tendency and the neutral venue in Guadalajara introduce enough uncertainty to keep confidence belo
  • - The market odds analysis reveals Spain as the clear favorite with 62.9% implied probability and tight bookmaker consensus on Spain odds around 1.50-1.53. Minimal probability movement across 9 update points indicates settled market sentiment rather than emerging uncertainty. Uruguay's draw-heavy form record supports some draw probability, but the dominant Spain signal from 14 bookmaker samples and stable odds positioning makes side_b_win the most defensible outcome, with confidence moderated slig
  • - The injury disparity is a decisive factor favoring Spain: Uruguay face uncertainty with two questionable players in critical positions (midfield creativity and defensive solidity), while Spain have a clean availability sheet. Combined with bookmakers strongly favoring Spain at nearly 63% implied probability and Spain's superior recent form including a 4-0 World Cup win, the most defensible outcome is a Spain victory. Confidence is tempered slightly because 'questionable' status does not confirm

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Spain win 90.0%; draw 5.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 5.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 4-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.2%; draw 22.1%; Uruguay win 65.7%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 1-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.21Log loss 0.46

Meta thinking

  • Recent Match Form ComparisonAnalyze the patterns in the last five matches for Uruguay and Spain to assess consistency, goal-scoring tendencies, and draw outcomes from visible records.
  • Market Odds AnalysisExamine the captured odds data to understand market sentiment and potential indicators of team strength or value without inferring outcomes.
  • Injury and Squad Risk EvaluationInvestigate the impact of Uruguay's two injuries compared to Spain's full squad, focusing on how this might affect team stability and match dynamics based on observed data.

Tokens: 3235

Perspectives

Recent Match Form ComparisonAway winThe decisive evidence is the stark contrast in recent form: Spain are unbeaten in five with a 0.2 goals-conceded average per match and two convincing wins, whereas Uruguay have won none of their last five and draw habitually. Uruguay's injury concerns and the bookmaker consensus heavily backing Spain at 62.9% implied probability reinforce the form differential. However, Uruguay's persistent drawing tendency and the neutral venue in Guadalajara introduce enough uncertainty to keep confidence belo65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Match Form Comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs Spain. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T00:00:00Z. Venue: Guadalajara Stadium, Guadalajara, altitude 1566 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (2 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay injuries/availability: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (MF, #15) status questionable; Ronald Araujo (DF, #10) status questionable.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 13.8%, draw 23.3%, side B win 62.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw +0.15pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.52 → side A 6.8 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.51; william_hill side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 7 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.8, draw 3.8, side B 1.51; william_hill: side A 6.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; marathonbet: side A 7.1, draw 4.05, side B 1.53. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-21T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence is the stark contrast in recent form: Spain are unbeaten in five with a 0.2 goals-conceded average per match and two convincing wins, whereas Uruguay have won none of their last five and draw habitually. Uruguay's injury concerns and the bookmaker consensus heavily backing Spain at 62.9% implied probability reinforce the form differential. However, Uruguay's persistent drawing tendency and the neutral venue in Guadalajara introduce enough uncertainty to keep confidence belo

Conclusion note

Spain's last five matches show a strong unbeaten run with two wins and three draws, conceding only one goal across those five games (including a dominant 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia in the World Cup), while Uruguay have drawn four of their last five matches and suffered a heavy 1-5 loss to the USA, scoring just five goals in that span. The bookmaker consensus gives Spain a 62.9% implied win probability versus only 13.8% for Uruguay, and Uruguay have two questionable players in midfielder de Arrascaeta and defender Araujo, further tilting form and availability in Spain's favour.

Market Odds AnalysisAway winThe market odds analysis reveals Spain as the clear favorite with 62.9% implied probability and tight bookmaker consensus on Spain odds around 1.50-1.53. Minimal probability movement across 9 update points indicates settled market sentiment rather than emerging uncertainty. Uruguay's draw-heavy form record supports some draw probability, but the dominant Spain signal from 14 bookmaker samples and stable odds positioning makes side_b_win the most defensible outcome, with confidence moderated slig58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs Spain. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T00:00:00Z. Venue: Guadalajara Stadium, Guadalajara, altitude 1566 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (2 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay injuries/availability: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (MF, #15) status questionable; Ronald Araujo (DF, #10) status questionable.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 13.8%, draw 23.3%, side B win 62.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw +0.15pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.52 → side A 6.8 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.51; william_hill side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 7 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.8, draw 3.8, side B 1.51; william_hill: side A 6.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; marathonbet: side A 7.1, draw 4.05, side B 1.53. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-21T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 13.8%, draw 23.3%, side B win 62.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw +0.15pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.52 → side A 6.8 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.51; william_hill side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 7 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.8, draw 3.8, side B 1.51; william_hill: side A 6.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; marathonbet: side A 7.1, draw 4.05, side B 1.53. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.7.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market odds analysis reveals Spain as the clear favorite with 62.9% implied probability and tight bookmaker consensus on Spain odds around 1.50-1.53. Minimal probability movement across 9 update points indicates settled market sentiment rather than emerging uncertainty. Uruguay's draw-heavy form record supports some draw probability, but the dominant Spain signal from 14 bookmaker samples and stable odds positioning makes side_b_win the most defensible outcome, with confidence moderated slig

Conclusion note

Market odds show overwhelming support for Spain over Uruguay, with consensus implied probabilities of 62.9% for a Spain victory, 23.3% for a draw, and just 13.8% for a Uruguay win, with Spain prices clustered tightly around 1.50-1.53 across major bookmakers indicating strong market consensus. The over 0.5 goals market priced at 1.01-1.06 suggests bookmakers expect scoring, while Uruguay's recent run of 7 draws in 10 matches partially explains the elevated draw probability but does not overcome Spain's clear market favoritism.

Injury and Squad Risk EvaluationAway winThe injury disparity is a decisive factor favoring Spain: Uruguay face uncertainty with two questionable players in critical positions (midfield creativity and defensive solidity), while Spain have a clean availability sheet. Combined with bookmakers strongly favoring Spain at nearly 63% implied probability and Spain's superior recent form including a 4-0 World Cup win, the most defensible outcome is a Spain victory. Confidence is tempered slightly because 'questionable' status does not confirm68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury and Squad Risk Evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs Spain. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T00:00:00Z. Venue: Guadalajara Stadium, Guadalajara, altitude 1566 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (2 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay injuries/availability: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (MF, #15) status questionable; Ronald Araujo (DF, #10) status questionable.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 13.8%, draw 23.3%, side B win 62.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T16:04:18Z -> 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw +0.15pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6.4 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.52 → side A 6.8 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.51; william_hill side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 7 / draw 4.1 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 4.2 / side B 1.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6.8, draw 3.8, side B 1.51; william_hill: side A 6.5, draw 3.9, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4.2, side B 1.5; marathonbet: side A 7.1, draw 4.05, side B 1.53. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-21T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.

  10. Check availability facts

    #9

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T00:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay injuries/availability: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (MF, #15) status questionable; Ronald Araujo (DF, #10) status questionable.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The injury disparity is a decisive factor favoring Spain: Uruguay face uncertainty with two questionable players in critical positions (midfield creativity and defensive solidity), while Spain have a clean availability sheet. Combined with bookmakers strongly favoring Spain at nearly 63% implied probability and Spain's superior recent form including a 4-0 World Cup win, the most defensible outcome is a Spain victory. Confidence is tempered slightly because 'questionable' status does not confirm

Conclusion note

Spain enter this World Cup 2026 group stage match as heavy favorites with 62.9% implied probability from bookmakers, while Uruguay have two key players doubtful—midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta and defender Ronald Araujo—with Spain showing no injury concerns and a full squad available. Uruguay's recent form consists mainly of draws and a 5-1 loss to USA, whereas Spain recorded a convincing 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia in their last World Cup match, suggesting a significant gap in squad stability and match readiness.

Synthesis

Spain are clear favorites against Uruguay based on overwhelming bookmaker support (62.9% implied probability), superior recent form (unbeaten in five matches with only one goal conceded), and Uruguay's injury doubts in key positions (de Arrascaeta and Araujo). However, Uruguay have drawn seven of their last ten matches, which elevates the draw probability to 23.3% and prevents a higher confidence in a Spain victory. The neutral venue in Guadalajara adds a slight uncertainty factor, but Spain's consistent performance and full squad availability make a Spain win the most likely outcome.

Reasoning summary: All three analysis perspectives consistently pick Spain to win, citing their strong form, bookmaker consensus, and Uruguay's injury concerns. Uruguay's recent drawing habit explains the significant draw probability, but Spain's overall superiority makes them the clear favorite. The final prediction aligns with the market-implied probabilities, giving Spain a 63% chance of victory.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Spain win 90.0%; draw 5.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 5.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 4-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.2%; draw 22.1%; Uruguay win 65.7%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 1-relevance 0.50