MiMo V2.5 Pro · England vs Ghana

EnglandvsGhana
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win80%Miss
BetBet portfolio$270Bet portfolio
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L+$330
PredictionConfidence: 80%
Home win

England are heavily favored to defeat Ghana, supported by a 78% implied win probability from bookmakers and strong recent form including a 4-2 World Cup win over Croatia, while Ghana's record of just two wins in their last ten matches indicates significant struggles. Ghana's victory over Panama in their opener adds a slight element of uncertainty, but the evidence overwhelmingly points to an England victory.

Bet
Bet portfolio$2702 bets
Net P&L+$330
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $190
    odds 1.23Settled: loss-$190

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction. Match script: England are dominant at home (4-2 vs Croatia in opener, 1-0 vs NZ, 3-0 vs Wales) with attacking firepower. Ghana's away record is dreadful (0-2 Mexico, 1-2 Germany, 1-5 Austria) and they lack the quality to contain England's front line. Group stage incentive for England to seal qualification with a statement win. While the execution edge is thin (-0.003 at Pinnacle 1.230), the match narrative strongly favors a comfortable England victory. Smal

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,257.2

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $80
    odds 7.50Settled: win+$520

    Betting rationale：Football posture: hedge/draw protection. Already have $190 on England at 1.230, so this is a small satellite hedge. England are heavy favorites (80% model probability) but execution odds of 1.200 give slight negative edge on adding more to the favorite. Draw has small positive edge (+0.007) at Pinnacle 7.50. Match script: rainy conditions (91% humidity, 1.1mm precipitation) at Foxborough could slow England's attack and make Ghana's compact defending more effective. Ghana showed they can grind re

    Payout: $600 · Balance after: $7,857.2

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 80%Draw 15%Away win 5%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #12-0
  2. #23-1
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the strong market consensus favoring England at 78% implied probability, supported by England's convincing 4-2 win over Croatia in their World Cup opener and Ghana's poor recent record of 2 wins in 10 matches, though Ghana's win against Panama introduces some uncertainty.
  • - England enter this group stage match in superior recent form with three wins in their last five, highlighted by an impressive 4-2 World Cup win over Croatia and a solid 1-0 friendly victory over New Zealand, while Ghana have managed just one win in their last five matches (1-0 vs Panama) and suffered three consecutive away losses to European sides by significant margins. The decisive evidence is the stark contrast in form quality and consistency, reinforced by the heavily one-sided odds consensu

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: England win 58.0%; draw 24.1%; Croatia win 17.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 2-0 Croatia, Engl
  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.3%; draw 25.8%; Croatia win 18.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England
  • - Recall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Panama win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Ghana win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Panama win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 0-1 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 1-2 Panama.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.37Log loss 1.90

Meta thinking

  • Market oddsAnalyze the captured odds from 14 observed sources to investigate market expectations and potential value in the England vs Ghana match.
  • Recent formExamine the last five matches for both England and Ghana, considering results, scorelines, and competition types, to assess their current form and consistency leading into this group stage encounter.

Tokens: 3241

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winThe decisive evidence is the strong market consensus favoring England at 78% implied probability, supported by England's convincing 4-2 win over Croatia in their World Cup opener and Ghana's poor recent record of 2 wins in 10 matches, though Ghana's win against Panama introduces some uncertainty.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Fixture: England vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • England: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • England: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T16:15:13Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 78%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z -> 2026-06-22T16:15:13Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.19 / draw 6.2 / side B 14 → side A 1.19 / draw 6.2 / side B 14; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.19, draw 6.2, side B 14; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 13; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.35, side B 15.25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for England:

    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Croatia, home/away home, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Greece, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Finland, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Greece, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-12-28T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence is the strong market consensus favoring England at 78% implied probability, supported by England's convincing 4-2 win over Croatia in their World Cup opener and Ghana's poor recent record of 2 wins in 10 matches, though Ghana's win against Panama introduces some uncertainty.

Conclusion note

Market odds from 14 bookmakers heavily favor England with a 78% implied win probability (odds around 1.19-1.22), while Ghana's recent form shows only 2 wins in their last 10 matches, though they did win their World Cup opener against Panama.

Recent formHome winEngland enter this group stage match in superior recent form with three wins in their last five, highlighted by an impressive 4-2 World Cup win over Croatia and a solid 1-0 friendly victory over New Zealand, while Ghana have managed just one win in their last five matches (1-0 vs Panama) and suffered three consecutive away losses to European sides by significant margins. The decisive evidence is the stark contrast in form quality and consistency, reinforced by the heavily one-sided odds consensu82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Fixture: England vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z. Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough, altitude 88 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • England: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • England: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T16:15:13Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 78%, draw 14.9%, side B win 7.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z -> 2026-06-22T16:15:13Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.19 / draw 6.2 / side B 14 → side A 1.19 / draw 6.2 / side B 14; william_hill side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13 → side A 1.22 / draw 6.5 / side B 13; bet365 side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13 → side A 1.2 / draw 7 / side B 13. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.19, draw 6.2, side B 14; william_hill: side A 1.22, draw 6.5, side B 13; bet365: side A 1.2, draw 7, side B 13; marathonbet: side A 1.22, draw 6.35, side B 15.25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for England:

    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Croatia, home/away home, score 4-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Greece, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Finland, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Greece, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-12-28T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Nigeria, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.

  10. England enter this group stage match in superior recent form with three wins in their last five, highlighted by an impressive 4-2 World Cup win over Croatia and a solid 1-0 friendly victory over New Zealand, while Ghana have managed just one win in their last five matches (1-0 vs Panama) and suffered three consecutive away losses to European sides by significant margins. The decisive evidence is the stark contrast in form quality and consistency, reinforced by the heavily one-sided odds consensu

Conclusion note

England's last five matches show a strong W-W-L-D-W run, including a commanding 4-2 victory over Croatia in their World Cup 2026 opener, while Ghana's recent form is W-D-L-L-L with heavy defeats to Germany (1-2), Mexico (0-2), and Austria (1-5), indicating significant struggles against quality opposition. The bookmaker consensus gives England a 78% implied win probability, reflecting the substantial gap in current form and squad quality.

Synthesis

England are heavily favored to defeat Ghana, supported by a 78% implied win probability from bookmakers and strong recent form including a 4-2 World Cup win over Croatia, while Ghana's record of just two wins in their last ten matches indicates significant struggles. Ghana's victory over Panama in their opener adds a slight element of uncertainty, but the evidence overwhelmingly points to an England victory.

Reasoning summary: Market odds and recent form perspectives both strongly favor England with probabilities of 0.78 and 0.82, highlighting England's convincing performance against Croatia and Ghana's poor results against quality opposition. The synthesis assigns a high probability to an England win, with lower chances for a draw or Ghana win, based on the decisive evidence of form and market consensus.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Preview editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: England win 58.0%; draw 24.1%; Croatia win 17.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 2-0 Croatia, Englrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Late editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.3%; draw 25.8%; Croatia win 18.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ghana vs Panama Late editionRecall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Panama win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Ghana win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Panama win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 0-1 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 1-2 Panama. relevance 0.50