MiMo V2.5 Pro · New Zealand vs Egypt

New ZealandvsEgypt
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win65%Hit
BetAway win$480Aligned
Post-match result1-3
Net P&L+$290.4
PredictionConfidence: 65%
Away win

Egypt is heavily favored over New Zealand due to strong consensus from bookmaker markets and recent form, with Egypt holding a 58.8% implied win probability and a superior recent record of five wins in ten matches compared to New Zealand's one win. New Zealand's poor defensive record, conceding 1.7 goals per match, and Egypt's tight defense conceding only 0.5 goals per match highlight the decisive advantage for Egypt in this matchup.

Bet
Away win$4803 bets
Net P&L+$290.4
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $240
    odds 1.61Settled: win+$146.4

    Betting rationale：Egypt favored with 65% model probability and +0.029 edge at execution odds of 1.61. Match script: Egypt's tight defense (0.5 goals conceded/match) vs New Zealand's leaky backline (1.7 goals/match). Egypt's results against Belgium, Spain, and Brazil show tournament-level quality; New Zealand's losses to Haiti and Finland expose vulnerability. Moderate 4% stake reflects positive edge and clear favorite conviction.

    Payout: $386.4 · Balance after: $7,453.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $120
    odds 1.61Settled: win+$73.2

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with edge accumulation. Egypt showed strong tournament credentials with draws against Belgium and Spain and a 4-0 demolition of Saudi Arabia, while New Zealand conceded 10 goals in 5 matches and have a leaky defense. The model assigns 70% win probability to Egypt with a +7.9% edge at the 1.610 execution price. Already holding $240 on Egypt; adding $120 to bring total exposure to ~$360 (5.9% of bankroll), which reflects strong conviction while staying within

    Payout: $193.2 · Balance after: $7,646.7

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $120
    odds 1.59Settled: win+$70.8

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with position accumulation. Egypt are the clear predicted winner at 60% confidence vs ~59.9% implied probability at Pinnacle 1.59. Match script: Egypt's recent results (draws vs Belgium 1-1, Spain 0-0, win vs Russia 1-0) show a disciplined side that controls games against quality opposition. New Zealand's form is poor (losses to Haiti 0-4, England 0-1) and they lack the technical quality to trouble Egypt at BC Place. Already have $360 on Egypt at 1.610 - add

    Payout: $190.8 · Balance after: $7,837.5

Post-match result1-3
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 20%Away win 65%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-1
  2. #20-0
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The market odds consensus assigns Egypt a 58.8% implied win probability compared to just 17.3% for New Zealand, representing a clear and consistent signal across all 14 observed bookmakers with minimal recent movement. Egypt's recent form is considerably stronger than New Zealand's, with five wins and three draws in their last ten matches compared to New Zealand's one win and two draws in ten; Egypt also hold a 1-0 head-to-head advantage from 2024. The confidence is moderate rather than high bec
  • - The recent form gap is substantial: Egypt's 50% win rate and elite defensive record (0.5 goals conceded per match) contrasts sharply with New Zealand's 10% win rate and porous defence conceding 1.7 goals per match. Egypt's results against top sides (draw vs Belgium, narrow loss to Brazil, win vs Russia) demonstrate a level New Zealand have not approached in their recent outings. The sole head-to-head record also shows Egypt winning 1-0 in 2024. Bookmaker consensus at 58.8% Egypt win probability

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.19Log loss 0.43

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds AnalysisExamine the captured odds to understand market expectations and implied probabilities for the match outcome.
  • Recent Form ComparisonAnalyze the visible recent match records of New Zealand and Egypt to assess performance trends and scoring patterns.

Tokens: 3454

Perspectives

Market Odds AnalysisAway winThe market odds consensus assigns Egypt a 58.8% implied win probability compared to just 17.3% for New Zealand, representing a clear and consistent signal across all 14 observed bookmakers with minimal recent movement. Egypt's recent form is considerably stronger than New Zealand's, with five wins and three draws in their last ten matches compared to New Zealand's one win and two draws in ten; Egypt also hold a 1-0 head-to-head advantage from 2024. The confidence is moderate rather than high bec62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs EGY. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 17.3%, draw 23.9%, side B win 58.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:06:32Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.03pp, draw +0.02pp, side B win -0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.4 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.6 → side A 5.3 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.6; william_hill side A 5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.6 → side A 5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.6; bet365 side A 5.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.6 → side A 5.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.3, draw 3.9, side B 1.6; william_hill: side A 5, draw 3.9, side B 1.6; bet365: side A 5.5, draw 4, side B 1.6; marathonbet: side A 5.7, draw 4.15, side B 1.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2024-03-22, NZL vs EGY, score 0-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Cairo', 'name': 'New Administrative Capital Stadium'}. (full detail via reference hist-05d2f072ec)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.

  10. The market odds consensus assigns Egypt a 58.8% implied win probability compared to just 17.3% for New Zealand, representing a clear and consistent signal across all 14 observed bookmakers with minimal recent movement. Egypt's recent form is considerably stronger than New Zealand's, with five wins and three draws in their last ten matches compared to New Zealand's one win and two draws in ten; Egypt also hold a 1-0 head-to-head advantage from 2024. The confidence is moderate rather than high bec

Conclusion note

The bookmaker market strongly favors Egypt over New Zealand, with consensus implied probabilities of 58.8% for an Egypt win versus only 17.3% for a New Zealand victory across 14 bookmaker samples; major operators including bet365, William Hill, 10bet and Marathonbet all price Egypt around 1.58-1.62, and this view is supported by Egypt's stronger recent form (five wins in their last ten, including a 1-1 draw with Belgium in their World Cup opener) and a 1-0 head-to-head victory over New Zealand in 2024.

Recent Form ComparisonAway winThe recent form gap is substantial: Egypt's 50% win rate and elite defensive record (0.5 goals conceded per match) contrasts sharply with New Zealand's 10% win rate and porous defence conceding 1.7 goals per match. Egypt's results against top sides (draw vs Belgium, narrow loss to Brazil, win vs Russia) demonstrate a level New Zealand have not approached in their recent outings. The sole head-to-head record also shows Egypt winning 1-0 in 2024. Bookmaker consensus at 58.8% Egypt win probability72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form Comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs EGY. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 17.3%, draw 23.9%, side B win 58.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:06:32Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.03pp, draw +0.02pp, side B win -0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.4 / draw 3.85 / side B 1.6 → side A 5.3 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.6; william_hill side A 5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.6 → side A 5 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.6; bet365 side A 5.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.6 → side A 5.5 / draw 4 / side B 1.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.3, draw 3.9, side B 1.6; william_hill: side A 5, draw 3.9, side B 1.6; bet365: side A 5.5, draw 4, side B 1.6; marathonbet: side A 5.7, draw 4.15, side B 1.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2024-03-22, NZL vs EGY, score 0-1, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Cairo', 'name': 'New Administrative Capital Stadium'}. (full detail via reference hist-05d2f072ec)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T07:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Jordan, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T01:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. The recent form gap is substantial: Egypt's 50% win rate and elite defensive record (0.5 goals conceded per match) contrasts sharply with New Zealand's 10% win rate and porous defence conceding 1.7 goals per match. Egypt's results against top sides (draw vs Belgium, narrow loss to Brazil, win vs Russia) demonstrate a level New Zealand have not approached in their recent outings. The sole head-to-head record also shows Egypt winning 1-0 in 2024. Bookmaker consensus at 58.8% Egypt win probability

Conclusion note

New Zealand's recent form is extremely poor with just 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 10 matches, including heavy defeats to Haiti (0-4), Australia (1-3) and Ecuador (0-2), while their only win came against Chile at home. Egypt, by contrast, have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 10 matches with a strong defensive record of just 5 goals conceded, including an impressive 1-1 draw against Belgium in their World Cup opener and a competitive 1-2 loss to Brazil.

Synthesis

Egypt is heavily favored over New Zealand due to strong consensus from bookmaker markets and recent form, with Egypt holding a 58.8% implied win probability and a superior recent record of five wins in ten matches compared to New Zealand's one win. New Zealand's poor defensive record, conceding 1.7 goals per match, and Egypt's tight defense conceding only 0.5 goals per match highlight the decisive advantage for Egypt in this matchup.

Reasoning summary: Market odds and recent form analysis both point decisively to an Egypt victory, with bookmakers implying a 58.8% win probability for Egypt and form data showing Egypt's significantly better win rate and defensive stability. Recalled memory reinforces this by indicating Egypt's competitiveness against stronger teams and New Zealand's consistent struggles, making an Egypt win the most defensible prediction.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50