MiMo V2.5 Pro · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win38%Miss
BetBet portfolio$350Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$46
PredictionConfidence: 38%
Home win

Egypt hold a slight advantage as market favorites with a 37.9% implied win probability, bolstered by their competitive edge in the World Cup where they beat New Zealand 3-1 and drew Belgium, while Iran drew both matches against similar opponents. However, Iran's unbeaten streak and defensive strength, evidenced by three wins in friendlies, make a draw highly plausible at 36.5% probability, creating a tightly contested fixture with minimal injury impact for Egypt.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3502 bets
Net P&L+$46
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 2.45Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction bet on Egypt. Their 3-1 away win over New Zealand and 1-1 draw with Belgium demonstrate attacking quality that should break through Iran's defense. While Iran kept Belgium scoreless (0-0), they struggled to contain New Zealand (2-2 draw). Egypt have the offensive firepower to edge this group stage match. Execution odds of 2.450 at Pinnacle align closely with the 40% model probability, making this a fair-value play on the more attack-minded side. Stake at moderate 3.4% reflect

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,701.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 2.64Settled: win+$246

    Betting rationale：Match script: Both Egypt and Iran have drawn heavily against quality opposition recently (Egypt drew Belgium 1-1, Iran drew Belgium 0-0 and New Zealand 2-2). This screams cagey World Cup group stage match. Prediction shows draw at 36% nearly matching Egypt's 38%, making the 2.640 draw price attractive for portfolio balance against my existing $200 Egypt position. Iran's defensive solidity supports a low-scoring stalemate. Hedge position: ~2.4% of balance for draw protection.

    Payout: $396 · Balance after: $6,097.9

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 38%Draw 36%Away win 26%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-1Hit
  2. #21-0
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - In competitive World Cup fixtures, Egypt hold a marginal advantage: both teams drew Belgium, but Egypt defeated New Zealand 3-1 while Iran drew 2-2, suggesting Egypt convert chances more effectively in tournament play. Iran's overall five-match unbeaten run (3W-2D-0L) is superior to Egypt's 2W-2D-1L record, yet Iran's three wins all came in friendlies against weaker opposition. The bookmaker consensus places Egypt win at 37.9% and draw at 36.5%, reflecting how evenly matched these teams are; wit
  • - Market consensus from 14 bookmakers gives Egypt a marginal edge at 37.9% implied probability over the draw at 36.5% and Iran at 25.6%, making Egypt the market's nominal favorite but only just. The notably elevated draw probability and complete absence of odds movement across 12 update points suggest the market views this as an evenly-matched contest with a slight Egypt lean. Egypt's recent World Cup form includes a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium, while Iran drew both their World Cu
  • - From an injury impact perspective, Egypt's single questionable defender represents a minor availability concern rather than a confirmed absence, and the team's recent World Cup results (win over New Zealand, draw with Belgium) demonstrate squad resilience and form that outweigh this modest uncertainty. Iran's clean injury sheet provides no decisive advantage given their inability to convert two World Cup draws into wins, while the bookmaker consensus pricing Egypt as clear second-favorites behin

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.62Log loss 1.02

Meta thinking

  • Recent form comparisonAnalyze the last five matches for Egypt and Iran to compare their win-draw-loss records, goal scoring patterns, and performance consistency in competitive fixtures.
  • Market odds analysisExamine the captured betting odds to assess implied probabilities and any shifts that might indicate market perception of team strengths or vulnerabilities.
  • Injury impact assessmentReview the observed injury for Egypt to evaluate how it might affect team dynamics or lineup stability, considering Iran's lack of reported injuries.

Tokens: 2847

Perspectives

Recent form comparisonDrawIn competitive World Cup fixtures, Egypt hold a marginal advantage: both teams drew Belgium, but Egypt defeated New Zealand 3-1 while Iran drew 2-2, suggesting Egypt convert chances more effectively in tournament play. Iran's overall five-match unbeaten run (3W-2D-0L) is superior to Egypt's 2W-2D-1L record, yet Iran's three wins all came in friendlies against weaker opposition. The bookmaker consensus places Egypt win at 37.9% and draw at 36.5%, reflecting how evenly matched these teams are; wit42%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. In competitive World Cup fixtures, Egypt hold a marginal advantage: both teams drew Belgium, but Egypt defeated New Zealand 3-1 while Iran drew 2-2, suggesting Egypt convert chances more effectively in tournament play. Iran's overall five-match unbeaten run (3W-2D-0L) is superior to Egypt's 2W-2D-1L record, yet Iran's three wins all came in friendlies against weaker opposition. The bookmaker consensus places Egypt win at 37.9% and draw at 36.5%, reflecting how evenly matched these teams are; wit

Conclusion note

Egypt and Iran both drew Belgium in World Cup 2026 group play, but Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 while Iran could only manage a 2-2 draw against the same opponent, giving Egypt a slight competitive edge; however, Iran are unbeaten in their last five with three wins in friendlies and strong defensive numbers, making this a closely contested fixture where a draw is the most defensible outcome at 36.5% implied probability versus Egypt's 37.9%.

Market odds analysisHome winMarket consensus from 14 bookmakers gives Egypt a marginal edge at 37.9% implied probability over the draw at 36.5% and Iran at 25.6%, making Egypt the market's nominal favorite but only just. The notably elevated draw probability and complete absence of odds movement across 12 update points suggest the market views this as an evenly-matched contest with a slight Egypt lean. Egypt's recent World Cup form includes a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium, while Iran drew both their World Cu38%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Market consensus from 14 bookmakers gives Egypt a marginal edge at 37.9% implied probability over the draw at 36.5% and Iran at 25.6%, making Egypt the market's nominal favorite but only just. The notably elevated draw probability and complete absence of odds movement across 12 update points suggest the market views this as an evenly-matched contest with a slight Egypt lean. Egypt's recent World Cup form includes a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium, while Iran drew both their World Cu

Conclusion note

The betting market prices Egypt as slight favorites with a 37.9% implied win probability against Iran's 25.6%, though the draw probability at 36.5% is nearly as high, reflecting a tightly contested match expectation; odds across 14 bookmakers have remained stable with zero percentage-point movement in all three outcomes, indicating settled market consensus without emerging news or sharp money shifting perceptions.

Injury impact assessmentHome winFrom an injury impact perspective, Egypt's single questionable defender represents a minor availability concern rather than a confirmed absence, and the team's recent World Cup results (win over New Zealand, draw with Belgium) demonstrate squad resilience and form that outweigh this modest uncertainty. Iran's clean injury sheet provides no decisive advantage given their inability to convert two World Cup draws into wins, while the bookmaker consensus pricing Egypt as clear second-favorites behin42%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury impact assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check availability facts

    #9

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check team ranking facts

    #13

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  15. Check tournament context

    #14

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  16. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  17. From an injury impact perspective, Egypt's single questionable defender represents a minor availability concern rather than a confirmed absence, and the team's recent World Cup results (win over New Zealand, draw with Belgium) demonstrate squad resilience and form that outweigh this modest uncertainty. Iran's clean injury sheet provides no decisive advantage given their inability to convert two World Cup draws into wins, while the bookmaker consensus pricing Egypt as clear second-favorites behin

Conclusion note

Egypt enter this Group G decider as slight bookmaker favorites with a 37.9% implied win probability versus 25.6% for Iran, and their injury concern is limited to defender Hossam Abdelmaguid being questionable rather than confirmed absent, so the impact on lineup stability appears modest given Egypt's recent strong form including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium. Iran have no reported injuries but have drawn both their World Cup matches so far, and the market pricing suggests Egypt retain a meaningful edge despite the single defensive question mark.

Synthesis

Egypt hold a slight advantage as market favorites with a 37.9% implied win probability, bolstered by their competitive edge in the World Cup where they beat New Zealand 3-1 and drew Belgium, while Iran drew both matches against similar opponents. However, Iran's unbeaten streak and defensive strength, evidenced by three wins in friendlies, make a draw highly plausible at 36.5% probability, creating a tightly contested fixture with minimal injury impact for Egypt.

Reasoning summary: The synthesis of perspectives indicates Egypt as slight favorites due to superior World Cup form, but the market consensus and Iran's recent defensive record highlight significant draw potential, with injury concerns for Egypt being minor and not decisive.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Irelevance 0.50