MiMo V2.5 Pro · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win40%Miss
BetBet portfolio$350Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$46
PredictionConfidence: 40%
Home win

Egypt are slight favorites against Iran based on their superior recent form, which includes a 3-1 away win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium in the World Cup, while Iran only managed a 2-2 home draw against New Zealand. Market odds consistently favor Egypt with a 39% implied win probability, but the draw at 35% highlights Iran's defensive resilience and the competitive balance in this match.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3502 bets
Net P&L+$46
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 2.45Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction bet on Egypt. Their 3-1 away win over New Zealand and 1-1 draw with Belgium demonstrate attacking quality that should break through Iran's defense. While Iran kept Belgium scoreless (0-0), they struggled to contain New Zealand (2-2 draw). Egypt have the offensive firepower to edge this group stage match. Execution odds of 2.450 at Pinnacle align closely with the 40% model probability, making this a fair-value play on the more attack-minded side. Stake at moderate 3.4% reflect

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,701.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 2.64Settled: win+$246

    Betting rationale：Match script: Both Egypt and Iran have drawn heavily against quality opposition recently (Egypt drew Belgium 1-1, Iran drew Belgium 0-0 and New Zealand 2-2). This screams cagey World Cup group stage match. Prediction shows draw at 36% nearly matching Egypt's 38%, making the 2.640 draw price attractive for portfolio balance against my existing $200 Egypt position. Iran's defensive solidity supports a low-scoring stalemate. Hedge position: ~2.4% of balance for draw protection.

    Payout: $396 · Balance after: $6,097.9

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 40%Draw 35%Away win 25%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - Egypt's recent form is clearly superior: they have only one loss in 10 matches (against Brazil) compared to Iran's two losses (Nigeria, Russia), and more importantly Egypt earned 4 points in the World Cup with a win and draw while Iran managed only 2 points from two draws. The head-to-head gap in World Cup performance is decisive—Egypt's 3-1 away win over New Zealand contrasts with Iran's 2-2 home draw against the same opponent, suggesting Egypt are more clinical and defensively solid. Bookmaker
  • - The 13 captured bookmaker odds consistently position Egypt as the slight favorite with 39% implied win probability against Iran's 25.2%, a meaningful 14 percentage-point gap supported by Egypt's stronger World Cup results so far. However, the draw at 35.8% is nearly as likely as an Egypt win, reflecting genuine uncertainty in what the market views as a closely contested match with limited separation between the top two outcomes.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.65Log loss 1.05

Meta thinking

  • Recent form comparisonAnalyze Egypt and Iran's recent match results in World Cup 2026 and friendlies to evaluate current momentum and consistency based on visible records.
  • Market odds analysisExamine the 13 captured market odds for this match to gauge bookmaker and betting market sentiment on the potential outcome.

Tokens: 3146

Perspectives

Recent form comparisonHome winEgypt's recent form is clearly superior: they have only one loss in 10 matches (against Brazil) compared to Iran's two losses (Nigeria, Russia), and more importantly Egypt earned 4 points in the World Cup with a win and draw while Iran managed only 2 points from two draws. The head-to-head gap in World Cup performance is decisive—Egypt's 3-1 away win over New Zealand contrasts with Iran's 2-2 home draw against the same opponent, suggesting Egypt are more clinical and defensively solid. Bookmaker45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check team process facts

    #9

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Egypt's recent form is clearly superior: they have only one loss in 10 matches (against Brazil) compared to Iran's two losses (Nigeria, Russia), and more importantly Egypt earned 4 points in the World Cup with a win and draw while Iran managed only 2 points from two draws. The head-to-head gap in World Cup performance is decisive—Egypt's 3-1 away win over New Zealand contrasts with Iran's 2-2 home draw against the same opponent, suggesting Egypt are more clinical and defensively solid. Bookmaker

Conclusion note

Egypt have demonstrated stronger recent form with a 6W-3D-1L record compared to Iran's 5W-3D-2L, and their World Cup 2026 results are notably more impressive: Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 away and drew Belgium 1-1 away (4 points), while Iran drew 0-0 with Belgium away and 2-2 with New Zealand at home (2 points). Iran's defensive vulnerability is evident from conceding two goals to New Zealand at home, while Egypt's only loss was to Brazil, a significantly stronger opponent than Iran's losses to Nigeria and Russia.

Market odds analysisHome winThe 13 captured bookmaker odds consistently position Egypt as the slight favorite with 39% implied win probability against Iran's 25.2%, a meaningful 14 percentage-point gap supported by Egypt's stronger World Cup results so far. However, the draw at 35.8% is nearly as likely as an Egypt win, reflecting genuine uncertainty in what the market views as a closely contested match with limited separation between the top two outcomes.42%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The 13 captured bookmaker odds consistently position Egypt as the slight favorite with 39% implied win probability against Iran's 25.2%, a meaningful 14 percentage-point gap supported by Egypt's stronger World Cup results so far. However, the draw at 35.8% is nearly as likely as an Egypt win, reflecting genuine uncertainty in what the market views as a closely contested match with limited separation between the top two outcomes.

Conclusion note

Across 14 bookmaker samples with no movement, Egypt is priced as the consensus favorite at approximately 2.4 odds (39% implied probability) versus Iran at approximately 3.7 odds (25.2% implied), with the draw sitting close at around 2.65 (35.8%). Egypt's recent World Cup form—a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium—outpaces Iran's two group-stage draws (0-0 vs Belgium, 2-2 vs New Zealand), aligning with the market's modest tilt toward an Egyptian victory.

Synthesis

Egypt are slight favorites against Iran based on their superior recent form, which includes a 3-1 away win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium in the World Cup, while Iran only managed a 2-2 home draw against New Zealand. Market odds consistently favor Egypt with a 39% implied win probability, but the draw at 35% highlights Iran's defensive resilience and the competitive balance in this match.

Reasoning summary: The recent form comparison and market odds analysis both pick Egypt to win, with confidences of 0.45 and 0.42, respectively, driven by Egypt earning 4 World Cup group stage points compared to Iran's 2 points. The decisive evidence is Egypt's clinical performance against shared opponents, though the elevated draw probability underscores uncertainty in a closely contested fixture.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Irelevance 0.50