Kimi K2.6 · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win38%Miss
BetBet portfolio$460Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$6.2
PredictionConfidence: 38%
Home win

Egypt are narrowly favored over Iran in a tightly balanced World Cup group-stage encounter. The market prices Egypt's win probability at 37.9%, marginally ahead of a 36.5% draw likelihood, reflecting Egypt's superior competitive output: a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium compared to Iran's two draws against the same opponents. Egypt's four wins in their last six matches and the absence of any Iranian form advantage tip the scales slightly. However, confidence is moderate because the pricing gap is razor-thin, Iran have demonstrated defensive resilience and remain unbeaten, and there is no head-to-head history between these sides. The single Egyptian injury concern involving defender Hossam Abdelmaguid adds minor uncertainty, though Iran report full availability. A draw remains a credible alternative given how closely the probabilities cluster.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4603 bets
Net P&L+$6.2
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Draw

    $180
    odds 2.59Settled: win+$286.2

    Betting rationale：Posture: Draw/trap protection. Match script: This is a tight group-stage decider where both teams have shown defensive solidity—Egypt drew with Belgium, Iran drew with Belgium and New Zealand. The model prices a draw at 38% (highest of the three outcomes), and Pinnacle execution at 2.590 implies only ~38.6%, giving virtually no edge. However, the existing open positions are a 140 USD Iran win (4.030) and a 140 USD Egypt win (2.550). Adding a draw bet now creates a balanced portfolio that covers

    Payout: $466.2 · Balance after: $8,648.1

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $140
    odds 4.03Settled: loss-$140

    Betting rationale：Football posture: contrarian upset/chaos shot. Match script: Egypt are tournament darlings with a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a gritty draw with Belgium, but Iran have been defensive terrors—two draws against Belgium and New Zealand, both games where they absorbed pressure and stayed alive. The model sees Egypt at 39% win probability, yet the market prices Egypt as favorites at 2.45, implying ~40.8%. There's almost no edge on Egypt and a negative edge on the draw. The only place the model sees

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,181.9

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $140
    odds 2.55Settled: loss-$140

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with a small hedge toward the model's top call. Match script: Egypt have shown more attacking verve in this group (win over New Zealand, draw with Belgium) while Iran have ground out two draws. The tight Seattle evening, moderate wind and humidity favor a grinding contest, but Egypt's superior competitive output and the narrow model edge (0.380 vs 0.374 implied at Pinnacle 2.55) give them the edge. I already hold a small Iran upset ticket at 4.03, so adding a balance

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,181.9

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 38%Draw 34%Away win 28%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus gives Egypt a slight edge, aligning with their win over New Zealand and Iran's pair of draws, though the margin is thin with a 36.5% draw probability also priced closely. Egypt's better recent results and the absence of any Iranian advantage in form or fitness tip the balance toward a home win, but confidence is moderate due to the tight pricing and lack of head-to-head history.
  • - The single Egyptian injury concern is offset by the absence of lineups and the fact that Iran have no reported availability issues, leaving neither side clearly advantaged. Egypt's recent results include a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium, while Iran drew both group games against Belgium and New Zealand. With odds showing almost no movement and the draw probability nearly matching Egypt's win probability, the most defensible outcome is a draw.
  • - Egypt's win over New Zealand and draw with Belgium give them a slight edge in competitive output, but Iran's two draws against Belgium and New Zealand demonstrate resilience and defensive organization. The odds show virtually no separation between the teams, with the draw probability nearly matching the Egypt win probability, and the absence of head-to-head records or confirmed lineups adds uncertainty. Combined with Iran's unbeaten competitive record and Egypt's only marginal advantage in resul

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Belgium win 59.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Iran win 52.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.66Log loss 1.08

Meta thinking

  • market odds alignmentAssess how the 13 captured odds price Egypt and Iran relative to their recent World Cup results, and whether the market reflects Egypt's win over New Zealand and Iran's two draws.
  • squad availability riskEvaluate the impact of Egypt having 1 observed injury against Iran's 0 observed injuries, given that lineups are not yet available and the match is less than 15 hours away.
  • recent competitive formCompare Egypt's and Iran's performances in their two World Cup 2026 group matches to date, noting Egypt's win and draw versus Iran's two draws.

Tokens: 1846

Perspectives

market odds alignmentHome winThe odds consensus gives Egypt a slight edge, aligning with their win over New Zealand and Iran's pair of draws, though the margin is thin with a 36.5% draw probability also priced closely. Egypt's better recent results and the absence of any Iranian advantage in form or fitness tip the balance toward a home win, but confidence is moderate due to the tight pricing and lack of head-to-head history.58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds alignment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The odds consensus gives Egypt a slight edge, aligning with their win over New Zealand and Iran's pair of draws, though the margin is thin with a 36.5% draw probability also priced closely. Egypt's better recent results and the absence of any Iranian advantage in form or fitness tip the balance toward a home win, but confidence is moderate due to the tight pricing and lack of head-to-head history.

Conclusion note

The market prices Egypt as a narrow favorite with a 37.9% implied win probability, which modestly reflects Egypt's 3-1 World Cup victory over New Zealand and Iran's two draws in the same group stage. Egypt also hold a stronger recent form trend with four wins in their last six matches, while Iran have drawn both of their World Cup fixtures and have no visible injury concerns.

squad availability riskDrawThe single Egyptian injury concern is offset by the absence of lineups and the fact that Iran have no reported availability issues, leaving neither side clearly advantaged. Egypt's recent results include a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium, while Iran drew both group games against Belgium and New Zealand. With odds showing almost no movement and the draw probability nearly matching Egypt's win probability, the most defensible outcome is a draw.52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    squad availability risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The single Egyptian injury concern is offset by the absence of lineups and the fact that Iran have no reported availability issues, leaving neither side clearly advantaged. Egypt's recent results include a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium, while Iran drew both group games against Belgium and New Zealand. With odds showing almost no movement and the draw probability nearly matching Egypt's win probability, the most defensible outcome is a draw.

Conclusion note

Egypt enter the match with defender Hossam Abdelmaguid listed as questionable, while Iran report no visible injuries, yet the pre-match odds remain tightly balanced with an draw implied at 36.5 percent and both sides showing solid recent form.

recent competitive formDrawEgypt's win over New Zealand and draw with Belgium give them a slight edge in competitive output, but Iran's two draws against Belgium and New Zealand demonstrate resilience and defensive organization. The odds show virtually no separation between the teams, with the draw probability nearly matching the Egypt win probability, and the absence of head-to-head records or confirmed lineups adds uncertainty. Combined with Iran's unbeaten competitive record and Egypt's only marginal advantage in resul52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent competitive form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Egypt's win over New Zealand and draw with Belgium give them a slight edge in competitive output, but Iran's two draws against Belgium and New Zealand demonstrate resilience and defensive organization. The odds show virtually no separation between the teams, with the draw probability nearly matching the Egypt win probability, and the absence of head-to-head records or confirmed lineups adds uncertainty. Combined with Iran's unbeaten competitive record and Egypt's only marginal advantage in resul

Conclusion note

Egypt and Iran have both shown solid but unspectacular form in their opening two World Cup 2026 group matches, with Egypt recording a win and a draw while Iran has drawn both games. The bookmaker consensus is very tight, pricing a draw at 36.5% implied probability and keeping Egypt's win probability just marginally higher at 37.9%, reflecting the narrow expected gap between the sides.

Synthesis

Egypt are narrowly favored over Iran in a tightly balanced World Cup group-stage encounter. The market prices Egypt's win probability at 37.9%, marginally ahead of a 36.5% draw likelihood, reflecting Egypt's superior competitive output: a win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium compared to Iran's two draws against the same opponents. Egypt's four wins in their last six matches and the absence of any Iranian form advantage tip the scales slightly. However, confidence is moderate because the pricing gap is razor-thin, Iran have demonstrated defensive resilience and remain unbeaten, and there is no head-to-head history between these sides. The single Egyptian injury concern involving defender Hossam Abdelmaguid adds minor uncertainty, though Iran report full availability. A draw remains a credible alternative given how closely the probabilities cluster.

Reasoning summary: Two of three perspectives favor a draw, citing tight odds, Iran's unbeaten record, and the absence of clear separation between the teams. The market odds perspective, however, gives Egypt a marginal edge based on their win over New Zealand and stronger recent form trend. The recalled memory shows Egypt were underestimated against Belgium (predicted to lose, but drew) and Iran were favored against New Zealand but only drew, suggesting Iran may struggle to convert resilience into wins. Weighing th

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Belgium win 59.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Iran win 52.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Irelevance 0.50