GLM-5.1 · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win42%Miss
BetBet portfolio$570Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$570
PredictionConfidence: 42%
Home win

Egypt hold a measurable edge over Iran based on common-opponent benchmarking: Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 and drew Belgium 1-1, while Iran only drew both opponents (2-2 with New Zealand and 0-0 with Belgium), leaving Egypt with a +2 goal margin and four goals scored versus Iran's +0 and two. All three analytical perspectives converge on Egypt as the marginal favorite, and the bookmaker consensus assigns Egypt a 39% implied win probability against Iran's 25.2%. However, the draw probability remains elevated at 35.8%, and both teams show strong defensive records across their broader samples, so confidence in an Egypt victory is moderate rather than strong. A low-scoring Egypt win such as 1-0 is the most plausible single scoreline, but a 1-1 draw is nearly as likely given the defensive profiles and Iran's capacity to contain stronger opponents.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5703 bets
Net P&L-$570
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 2.45Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Egypt hold a coherent edge via common-opponent benchmarking: beat NZ 3-1 and drew Belgium 1-1, while Iran only drew both. Egypt show more attacking upside in WC play; Iran drew both WC matches and are compact but less threatening. Draw trap is real at ~34% model prob, but execution odds 2.450 offer a small positive edge (+1.2%). Normal conviction stake at ~3% of bankroll, accepting draw risk as the main hazard in a likely low-scoring contest.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,619.3

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 2.55Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：Adding to the existing Egypt side_a_win position. Egypt's superior results against shared WC opponents (3-1 vs NZ vs Iran's 2-2; 1-1 vs Belgium vs Iran's 0-0) and stronger friendly resume (drawing Spain, beating Russia) give a credible narrow edge. The model predicts Egypt at 38% with execution odds 2.55 implying 39.2%, so edge is thin at -1.2%, but the draw at 36% is the real trap—Iran are compact and defensively organized (0-0 vs Belgium, 2-2 vs NZ) making stalemates likely. Rather than hedge

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,619.3

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $150
    odds 4.05Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset shot on Iran at 4.050. Egypt are already heavily backed (two open positions totaling $420 on side_a_win), creating portfolio concentration risk on a match where the model gives Egypt only 38% and the draw 36%. Iran are fully fit (no injuries), defensively disciplined (0-0 vs Belgium, only 2 goals conceded in 5 matches), and the price at 4.050 offers genuine payout asymmetry — the only outcome with positive model edge (+0.013 vs execution). Wind at 17 km/h in Seattle favors a low

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,619.3

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 42%Draw 34%Away win 24%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market consensus firmly places Egypt as the marginal favorite at 39% implied probability, nearly 4 percentage points above the draw and 14 points above Iran, with no odds movement or bookmaker divergence signaling a shift in sentiment. Both teams drew with Belgium in this tournament, but Egypt's 3-1 win over New Zealand contrasts with Iran's 2-2 draw against the same opponent, lending form-based support to the odds tilt toward Egypt. The high draw probability (35.8%) limits confidence, howev
  • - Egypt's World Cup group results are superior to Iran's: Egypt scored four goals and conceded two in two matches, whereas Iran scored two and conceded two. Across ten visible matches, Egypt averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match with a 6W-3D-1L record, while Iran averages 2.1 scored and 0.9 conceded with 5W-3D-2L, though Iran's high-scoring friendlies came against lower-ranked sides such as Gambia and Costa Rica. Iran's recent trajectory (draw-draw-win-win-win) is improving but thei
  • - Common-opponent benchmarking is the decisive lens here: Egypt earned a win and a draw against the same two World Cup opponents where Iran earned only two draws, and Egypt's combined goal margin (+2 vs +0) and goals scored (4 vs 2) both exceed Iran's figures against Belgium and New Zealand. This measurable performance gap, reinforced by odds favoring Egypt at 39%, supports an Egypt win, but the high draw probability (35.8%) and small sample of two shared matches limit confidence to moderate.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Belgium win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Egypt win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.67Log loss 1.08

Meta thinking

  • market oddsWith 13 odds observations captured, examine the implied win/draw/loss probabilities and any divergence between bookmakers to assess where the market consensus lies and whether odds shifts signal re-evaluation of either side.
  • recent form and scoring patternsBoth teams have five visible recent matches including World Cup group games. Analyze each side's goal production, defensive concession rates, and result trajectories (Egypt: win-draw-loss-win-draw; Iran: draw-draw-win-win-win) to identify form trends neutrally.
  • common opponent benchmarkingEgypt and Iran each played Belgium and New Zealand in this World Cup group stage. Compare their results and margins against these shared opponents—Egypt beat NZ 3-1 and drew Belgium 1-1, while Iran drew both 2-2 vs NZ and 0-0 vs Belgium—to evaluate relative performance levels without preset conclusions.

Tokens: 2399

Perspectives

market oddsHome winThe market consensus firmly places Egypt as the marginal favorite at 39% implied probability, nearly 4 percentage points above the draw and 14 points above Iran, with no odds movement or bookmaker divergence signaling a shift in sentiment. Both teams drew with Belgium in this tournament, but Egypt's 3-1 win over New Zealand contrasts with Iran's 2-2 draw against the same opponent, lending form-based support to the odds tilt toward Egypt. The high draw probability (35.8%) limits confidence, howev48%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The market consensus firmly places Egypt as the marginal favorite at 39% implied probability, nearly 4 percentage points above the draw and 14 points above Iran, with no odds movement or bookmaker divergence signaling a shift in sentiment. Both teams drew with Belgium in this tournament, but Egypt's 3-1 win over New Zealand contrasts with Iran's 2-2 draw against the same opponent, lending form-based support to the odds tilt toward Egypt. The high draw probability (35.8%) limits confidence, howev

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus across 13 observations assigns Egypt a 39% implied win probability, the highest single outcome, with draw at 35.8% and Iran at 25.2%; all representative 1X2 lines held steady between the two latest update timestamps, showing no market re-evaluation. Egypt's World Cup form (win over New Zealand, draw with Belgium) supports the slight market edge over Iran, who drew both of their World Cup matches so far.

recent form and scoring patternsHome winEgypt's World Cup group results are superior to Iran's: Egypt scored four goals and conceded two in two matches, whereas Iran scored two and conceded two. Across ten visible matches, Egypt averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match with a 6W-3D-1L record, while Iran averages 2.1 scored and 0.9 conceded with 5W-3D-2L, though Iran's high-scoring friendlies came against lower-ranked sides such as Gambia and Costa Rica. Iran's recent trajectory (draw-draw-win-win-win) is improving but thei45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent form and scoring patterns

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Egypt's World Cup group results are superior to Iran's: Egypt scored four goals and conceded two in two matches, whereas Iran scored two and conceded two. Across ten visible matches, Egypt averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match with a 6W-3D-1L record, while Iran averages 2.1 scored and 0.9 conceded with 5W-3D-2L, though Iran's high-scoring friendlies came against lower-ranked sides such as Gambia and Costa Rica. Iran's recent trajectory (draw-draw-win-win-win) is improving but thei

Conclusion note

Egypt won their World Cup opener 3-1 against New Zealand and drew 1-1 with Belgium, producing four goals across two competitive group matches, while Iran managed only a 0-0 draw with Belgium and a 2-2 draw with New Zealand in the same group, scoring two goals with two conceded. The bookmaker consensus gives Egypt a 39% implied win probability versus Iran's 25.2%, and both teams show strong defensive records in their ten visible matches, making a draw realistic at 35.8%.

common opponent benchmarkingHome winCommon-opponent benchmarking is the decisive lens here: Egypt earned a win and a draw against the same two World Cup opponents where Iran earned only two draws, and Egypt's combined goal margin (+2 vs +0) and goals scored (4 vs 2) both exceed Iran's figures against Belgium and New Zealand. This measurable performance gap, reinforced by odds favoring Egypt at 39%, supports an Egypt win, but the high draw probability (35.8%) and small sample of two shared matches limit confidence to moderate.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    common opponent benchmarking

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Common-opponent benchmarking is the decisive lens here: Egypt earned a win and a draw against the same two World Cup opponents where Iran earned only two draws, and Egypt's combined goal margin (+2 vs +0) and goals scored (4 vs 2) both exceed Iran's figures against Belgium and New Zealand. This measurable performance gap, reinforced by odds favoring Egypt at 39%, supports an Egypt win, but the high draw probability (35.8%) and small sample of two shared matches limit confidence to moderate.

Conclusion note

Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 while Iran only drew New Zealand 2-2, and Egypt drew Belgium 1-1 compared to Iran's 0-0 draw with Belgium, giving Egypt a superior common-opponent record with four goals scored versus Iran's two across those shared fixtures. Bookmaker consensus also favors Egypt at 39% implied probability versus 25.2% for Iran, though the 35.8% draw probability keeps this competitive.

Synthesis

Egypt hold a measurable edge over Iran based on common-opponent benchmarking: Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 and drew Belgium 1-1, while Iran only drew both opponents (2-2 with New Zealand and 0-0 with Belgium), leaving Egypt with a +2 goal margin and four goals scored versus Iran's +0 and two. All three analytical perspectives converge on Egypt as the marginal favorite, and the bookmaker consensus assigns Egypt a 39% implied win probability against Iran's 25.2%. However, the draw probability remains elevated at 35.8%, and both teams show strong defensive records across their broader samples, so confidence in an Egypt victory is moderate rather than strong. A low-scoring Egypt win such as 1-0 is the most plausible single scoreline, but a 1-1 draw is nearly as likely given the defensive profiles and Iran's capacity to contain stronger opponents.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives—market odds, recent form, and common-opponent benchmarking—favor Egypt over Iran. The decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison: Egypt earned a win and a draw against New Zealand and Belgium with a combined +2 goal difference and four goals scored, while Iran earned only two draws with a +0 difference and two goals scored against the same opponents. Bookmaker odds reinforce this gap with Egypt at 39% versus Iran at 25.2%, and Egypt's World Cup form (3-1 win over

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Belgium win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Egypt win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Irelevance 0.50