DeepSeek V4 Pro · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win40%Miss
BetBet portfolio$750Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$222
PredictionConfidence: 40%
Home win

Although the market shows only a slim margin between Egypt (37.9%) and the draw (36.5%), all three analytical perspectives agree on an Egypt win, pointing to Egypt’s superior recent form against common opponents New Zealand and Belgium, their higher goal output, and their position atop Group G. Iran’s full squad availability provides a small advantage, but the questionable status of Egypt defender Hossam Abdelmaguid is a minor concern that doesn’t offset the form advantage. The tight odds and significant draw probability keep confidence at 0.40, and the most likely single scoreline is a 1‑1 draw, even though the 1X2 balance tilts toward Egypt.

Bet
Bet portfolio$7503 bets
Net P&L-$222
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 2.45Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Posture: Favorite conviction with a script bet. Egypt have looked sharper in this tournament — a convincing 3-1 over New Zealand and a resilient 1-1 with Belgium to top Group G. Iran, by contrast, are grinding out draws (0-0 vs Belgium, 2-2 vs New Zealand) and lack the same attacking spark. At a neutral Seattle venue, Egypt's momentum and slightly superior quality should tilt a tight contest their way. The model gives Egypt 42% win probability against Pinnacle's 2.45 (40.8% implied), a thin +1.2

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,615.1

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $250
    odds 4.05Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Posture: hedge + value. Egypt need only a draw to advance and will set up cautiously, especially with defender Abdelmaguid questionable. But Iran enter fully fit, desperate for a win, and have shown resilience with draws against Belgium and New Zealand. At 4.050, Iran carry the only positive model edge (+3.3%) and provide essential portfolio protection — if Iran's must-win urgency breaks through Egypt's low block, the existing $500 on Egypt/draw is fully covered. Seattle's cool, windy conditions

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,143.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 2.64Settled: win+$328

    Betting rationale：Draw/trap protection posture. Already hold $300 on Egypt at 2.45; the model's own most-likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%) and draw probability sits at 35% — nearly matching Egypt's 40%. Two organized, defensively solid sides meet in a group-stage night match in cool, breezy Seattle. Iran held Belgium 0-0; Egypt held Spain 0-0. Both can lock down a cagey affair. A small draw hedge at 2.64 protects the existing Egypt position against the most probable single outcome the model sees, while still leaving

    Payout: $528 · Balance after: $10,143.1

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 40%Draw 35%Away win 25%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-1Hit
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The 13 captured odds observations show Egypt as the market's best single-outcome pick with a 37.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the draw at 36.5%. Stable odds with no movement between update windows, combined with a low over-0.5-goals price signalling expected scoring, support siding with the highest-implied-probability outcome despite the tight margin. Egypt's group-lead position and superior recent World Cup results against common opponents reinforce the market lean, though confidenc
  • - The common-opponent comparison decisively favors Egypt: they outperformed Iran against both New Zealand (3-1 away win vs 2-2 home draw) and Belgium (1-1 away draw with a goal vs 0-0 away draw). Egypt's World Cup attacking output (4 goals in 2 games) surpasses Iran's (2 goals), and their group position (4 pts vs 2 pts) gives them a cushion. Iran's impressive friendly results came against lower-quality opposition. Odds narrowly back Egypt (37.9%) over the draw (36.5%) and Iran (25.6%). The close d
  • - Iran's full squad availability gives them a minor advantage over Egypt's one questionable defender, but Egypt's superior recent form against common opponents New Zealand and Belgium, their top position in Group G, and consensus odds that still tilt toward Egypt outweigh the small availability gap. The near-identical draw probability and the questionable status of Egypt's defender keep confidence low.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Belgium win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Iran win 60.0%; draw 25.0%; New Zealand win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-1 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.65Log loss 1.05

Meta thinking

  • Market odds evaluationAnalyze the 13 captured odds observations for Egypt vs Iran, covering 1X2, Asian handicap and totals markets, to understand market sentiment and implied probabilities.
  • Recent form and common opponent comparisonCompare Egypt's and Iran's last five results, focusing on performances against New Zealand and Belgium (both faced recently), as well as overall attacking output and defensive records.
  • Injury and squad availabilityExamine the one reported injury for Egypt versus Iran's full squad availability, assessing whether the missing player affects key roles or team balance.

Tokens: 3276

Perspectives

Market odds evaluationHome winThe 13 captured odds observations show Egypt as the market's best single-outcome pick with a 37.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the draw at 36.5%. Stable odds with no movement between update windows, combined with a low over-0.5-goals price signalling expected scoring, support siding with the highest-implied-probability outcome despite the tight margin. Egypt's group-lead position and superior recent World Cup results against common opponents reinforce the market lean, though confidenc38%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  11. Check tournament context

    #10

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  12. Check match details

    #11

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  13. Market odds evaluation for Egypt vs Iran: 13 odds observations across 14 bookmakers show Egypt as marginal favorites with 37.9% implied win probability, draw at 36.5%, Iran at 25.6%. Odds have been stable with 0pp movement between the last two update points (08:15 to 12:03 UTC). The totals market (over 0.5 at ~1.14) signals high confidence in at least one goal, indirectly reducing pure 0-0 draw risk. Marathonbet's tight 2.55/2.50/3.92 line shows some bookmakers see this as nearly a coin flip bet

  14. The 13 captured odds observations show Egypt as the market's best single-outcome pick with a 37.9% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the draw at 36.5%. Stable odds with no movement between update windows, combined with a low over-0.5-goals price signalling expected scoring, support siding with the highest-implied-probability outcome despite the tight margin. Egypt's group-lead position and superior recent World Cup results against common opponents reinforce the market lean, though confidenc

Conclusion note

Across 13 odds observations from 14 bookmakers, Egypt hold the highest implied win probability at 37.9%, edging the draw at 36.5% and Iran at 25.6%, with zero probability movement between the last two update windows indicating a stable market consensus. The totals market (over 0.5 goals priced around 1.14) suggests goals are expected, which modestly reduces pure stalemate risk, while Egypt's stronger group position and recent World Cup form — a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium — align with the market's marginal preference for the Egyptians.

Recent form and common opponent comparisonHome winThe common-opponent comparison decisively favors Egypt: they outperformed Iran against both New Zealand (3-1 away win vs 2-2 home draw) and Belgium (1-1 away draw with a goal vs 0-0 away draw). Egypt's World Cup attacking output (4 goals in 2 games) surpasses Iran's (2 goals), and their group position (4 pts vs 2 pts) gives them a cushion. Iran's impressive friendly results came against lower-quality opposition. Odds narrowly back Egypt (37.9%) over the draw (36.5%) and Iran (25.6%). The close d45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and common opponent comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check match details

    #12

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Check team process facts

    #14

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  16. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #15

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  17. Comparing Egypt and Iran through the common-opponent lens (New Zealand and Belgium): Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 away and drew Belgium 1-1 away, while Iran drew New Zealand 2-2 at home and drew Belgium 0-0 away. Egypt were more convincing in both matchups, scoring 4 World Cup goals to Iran's 2. Egypt's last five also include a win over Russia and draws with Spain and Belgium, showing consistency against quality sides. Iran's last five feature big friendly wins over Costa Rica, Gambia and Mali, bu

  18. The common-opponent comparison decisively favors Egypt: they outperformed Iran against both New Zealand (3-1 away win vs 2-2 home draw) and Belgium (1-1 away draw with a goal vs 0-0 away draw). Egypt's World Cup attacking output (4 goals in 2 games) surpasses Iran's (2 goals), and their group position (4 pts vs 2 pts) gives them a cushion. Iran's impressive friendly results came against lower-quality opposition. Odds narrowly back Egypt (37.9%) over the draw (36.5%) and Iran (25.6%). The close d

Conclusion note

Egypt's last five results show stronger performances against the two shared opponents: they beat New Zealand 3-1 away and drew Belgium 1-1 away, while Iran only drew New Zealand 2-2 at home and Belgium 0-0 away. Egypt have scored 4 goals across their two World Cup group matches compared to Iran's 2, and their overall last-five form includes draws with Spain and Belgium plus a win over Russia, whereas Iran's higher-scoring friendly wins came against weaker sides like Costa Rica, Gambia, and Mali. Odds narrowly favor Egypt (implied 37.9%) over the draw (36.5%) and Iran (25.6%), and Egypt top Group G with 4 points. The questionable status of defender Hossam Abdelmaguid is a minor concern but does not offset Egypt's edge on recent evidence.

Injury and squad availabilityHome winIran's full squad availability gives them a minor advantage over Egypt's one questionable defender, but Egypt's superior recent form against common opponents New Zealand and Belgium, their top position in Group G, and consensus odds that still tilt toward Egypt outweigh the small availability gap. The near-identical draw probability and the questionable status of Egypt's defender keep confidence low.40%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Injury and squad availability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 37.9%, draw 36.5%, side B win 25.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z -> 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75 → side A 2.46 / draw 2.52 / side B 3.75; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6 → side A 2.5 / draw 2.62 / side B 3.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.46, draw 2.52, side B 3.75; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.5, draw 2.62, side B 3.6; marathonbet: side A 2.55, draw 2.5, side B 3.92. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 4.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:14:01Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 73%, wind 18.2 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check availability facts

    #10

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt injuries/availability: Hossam Abdelmaguid (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check team ranking facts

    #13

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  15. Check team process facts

    #14

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  16. Check team process facts

    #15

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  17. Assessing the injury and squad availability perspective: Egypt have one questionable defender (Hossam Abdelmaguid, #4) while Iran report a fully available squad with no injuries or suspensions. The availability gap gives Iran a mild edge, but Abdelmaguid's status is only questionable (not ruled out). Egypt's recent World Cup form (3-1 win over NZ, 1-1 draw with Belgium) looks stronger than Iran's (2-2 draw with NZ, 0-0 draw with Belgium). Egypt lead Group G with 4 points to Iran's 2. Odds show E

  18. Iran's full squad availability gives them a minor advantage over Egypt's one questionable defender, but Egypt's superior recent form against common opponents New Zealand and Belgium, their top position in Group G, and consensus odds that still tilt toward Egypt outweigh the small availability gap. The near-identical draw probability and the questionable status of Egypt's defender keep confidence low.

Conclusion note

Egypt have one availability concern with defender Hossam Abdelmaguid listed as questionable, while Iran report a fully fit squad with no injuries or suspensions. Despite that mild squad-availability edge for Iran, Egypt's stronger recent World Cup results — a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, versus Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand and 0-0 draw with Belgium — plus Egypt's Group G lead make them narrow favourites, though bookmaker consensus shows only a slim margin between an Egypt win (37.9%) and a draw (36.5%).

Synthesis

Although the market shows only a slim margin between Egypt (37.9%) and the draw (36.5%), all three analytical perspectives agree on an Egypt win, pointing to Egypt’s superior recent form against common opponents New Zealand and Belgium, their higher goal output, and their position atop Group G. Iran’s full squad availability provides a small advantage, but the questionable status of Egypt defender Hossam Abdelmaguid is a minor concern that doesn’t offset the form advantage. The tight odds and significant draw probability keep confidence at 0.40, and the most likely single scoreline is a 1‑1 draw, even though the 1X2 balance tilts toward Egypt.

Reasoning summary: Market odds give Egypt a marginal edge (37.9% vs 36.5% draw and 25.6% Iran). All three analytical perspectives – market, form/common opponent, and injury/availability – pick Egypt to win with moderate confidence (0.38–0.45). Egypt outperformed Iran against shared opponents, lead Group G, and have scored more goals. Iran’s full squad versus Egypt’s one questionable defender is a slight mitigant. The synthesis lifts Egypt’s win probability slightly above the implied market figure to 0.40 while ret

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Belgium win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Iran win 60.0%; draw 25.0%; New Zealand win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-1 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Irelevance 0.50