DeepSeek V4 Pro · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win42%Miss
BetBet portfolio$750Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$222
PredictionConfidence: 42%
Home win

Egypt are favoured to beat Iran after a more convincing World Cup campaign so far. Egypt's recent results include a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, while Iran were held 2-2 by New Zealand and 0-0 by Belgium. Egypt lead Group G with four points and appear to have better attacking momentum. The betting market gives Egypt around a 39% implied win chance with a high 35.8% draw probability, suggesting a tight contest. All three independent assessments point to an Egypt victory but with moderate confidence. A narrow win such as 1-0 or 2-1 is the most likely scenario, though a stalemate cannot be ruled out.

Bet
Bet portfolio$7503 bets
Net P&L-$222
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 2.45Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Posture: Favorite conviction with a script bet. Egypt have looked sharper in this tournament — a convincing 3-1 over New Zealand and a resilient 1-1 with Belgium to top Group G. Iran, by contrast, are grinding out draws (0-0 vs Belgium, 2-2 vs New Zealand) and lack the same attacking spark. At a neutral Seattle venue, Egypt's momentum and slightly superior quality should tilt a tight contest their way. The model gives Egypt 42% win probability against Pinnacle's 2.45 (40.8% implied), a thin +1.2

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,615.1

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $250
    odds 4.05Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Posture: hedge + value. Egypt need only a draw to advance and will set up cautiously, especially with defender Abdelmaguid questionable. But Iran enter fully fit, desperate for a win, and have shown resilience with draws against Belgium and New Zealand. At 4.050, Iran carry the only positive model edge (+3.3%) and provide essential portfolio protection — if Iran's must-win urgency breaks through Egypt's low block, the existing $500 on Egypt/draw is fully covered. Seattle's cool, windy conditions

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,143.1

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 2.64Settled: win+$328

    Betting rationale：Draw/trap protection posture. Already hold $300 on Egypt at 2.45; the model's own most-likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%) and draw probability sits at 35% — nearly matching Egypt's 40%. Two organized, defensively solid sides meet in a group-stage night match in cool, breezy Seattle. Iran held Belgium 0-0; Egypt held Spain 0-0. Both can lock down a cagey affair. A small draw hedge at 2.64 protects the existing Egypt position against the most probable single outcome the model sees, while still leaving

    Payout: $528 · Balance after: $10,143.1

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 42%Draw 34%Away win 24%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - Egypt's last five matches (Spain D 0-0, Russia W 1-0, Brazil L 1-2, Belgium D 1-1, New Zealand W 3-1) demonstrate competitiveness against top-tier teams and an improving trajectory capped by a convincing World Cup win. Iran's last five (Costa Rica W 5-0, Gambia W 3-1, Mali W 2-0, New Zealand D 2-2, Belgium D 0-0) show friendly wins over weak opponents giving way to two tournament draws, a declining trend. Common-opponent comparisons at this World Cup strongly favour Egypt. Egypt's group lead (4
  • - The market odds assessment shows a clear and stable consensus favoring Egypt: implied win probability of 39% leads the draw (35.8%) and Iran (25.2%), with no sharp movements across 14 bookmaker samples over the visible update window. The absence of volatility and the uniform pricing across independent bookmakers strengthen the signal that the market perceives Egypt as the stronger side, even if the modest probability gap warrants only moderate confidence.
  • - The common-opponent comparison clearly favors Egypt: they defeated New Zealand 3-1 (away) whereas Iran drew 2-2 (home), and Egypt scored in a 1-1 draw with Belgium while Iran was held scoreless 0-0. Egypt also leads Group G with 4 points against Iran's 2 and holds the schedule-listed home side advantage at Seattle Stadium. Bookmaker odds reinforce Egypt as the likeliest winner (39% implied), though the draw at 35.8% is close. Missing lineup, H2H, weather and ranking data cap confidence at a mode

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Belgium win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Iran win 60.0%; draw 25.0%; New Zealand win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-1 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.67Log loss 1.08

Meta thinking

  • Recent form trajectoryAssess the last five match results for both Egypt and Iran, considering opponent strength, scorelines, and whether each team shows improving or declining momentum entering this group stage fixture.
  • Market odds assessmentAnalyze the captured pre-match odds data to infer market expectations for a full‑time result, checking for any sharp movements or consensus that could signal perceived strength.
  • Common opponent comparisonCompare performances against the shared World Cup group opponents Belgium and New Zealand, noting Egypt's win over New Zealand and draw with Belgium versus Iran's draws with both sides.

Tokens: 2882

Perspectives

Recent form trajectoryHome winEgypt's last five matches (Spain D 0-0, Russia W 1-0, Brazil L 1-2, Belgium D 1-1, New Zealand W 3-1) demonstrate competitiveness against top-tier teams and an improving trajectory capped by a convincing World Cup win. Iran's last five (Costa Rica W 5-0, Gambia W 3-1, Mali W 2-0, New Zealand D 2-2, Belgium D 0-0) show friendly wins over weak opponents giving way to two tournament draws, a declining trend. Common-opponent comparisons at this World Cup strongly favour Egypt. Egypt's group lead (445%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Check match details

    #14

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  16. Assessing recent form trajectory for Egypt vs Iran. Egypt's last five: D-W-L-D-W (Spain 0-0, Russia 1-0, Brazil 1-2, Belgium 1-1, New Zealand 3-1) — competitive against elite opponents and finishing with a convincing World Cup win. Iran's last five: W-W-W-D-D (Costa Rica 5-0, Gambia 3-1, Mali 2-0, New Zealand 2-2, Belgium 0-0) — friendly wins against weaker sides but two World Cup draws, including a disappointing home result against New Zealand. Common opponents favour Egypt: beat New Zealand 3-

  17. Egypt's last five matches (Spain D 0-0, Russia W 1-0, Brazil L 1-2, Belgium D 1-1, New Zealand W 3-1) demonstrate competitiveness against top-tier teams and an improving trajectory capped by a convincing World Cup win. Iran's last five (Costa Rica W 5-0, Gambia W 3-1, Mali W 2-0, New Zealand D 2-2, Belgium D 0-0) show friendly wins over weak opponents giving way to two tournament draws, a declining trend. Common-opponent comparisons at this World Cup strongly favour Egypt. Egypt's group lead (4

Conclusion note

Egypt's last five results show competitive performances against elite opponents — draws with Spain and Belgium, a narrow loss to Brazil, and wins over Russia and New Zealand — culminating in a convincing 3-1 World Cup victory over New Zealand that signals upward momentum. Iran's trajectory has flattened: after three friendly wins against weaker sides (Costa Rica, Gambia, Mali), they could only draw 2-2 at home to New Zealand and 0-0 away to Belgium. Against the two common opponents both have faced in this tournament, Egypt earned better results (3-1 away vs New Zealand compared to Iran's 2-2 home draw; 1-1 away vs Belgium compared to Iran's 0-0). With Egypt top of Group G on four points and Iran on two, the form trajectory and group situation both favour Egypt, though the market's modest 39% implied win probability and elevated 35.8% draw chance warrant only moderate confidence.

Market odds assessmentHome winThe market odds assessment shows a clear and stable consensus favoring Egypt: implied win probability of 39% leads the draw (35.8%) and Iran (25.2%), with no sharp movements across 14 bookmaker samples over the visible update window. The absence of volatility and the uniform pricing across independent bookmakers strengthen the signal that the market perceives Egypt as the stronger side, even if the modest probability gap warrants only moderate confidence.40%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds assessment

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check head-to-head

    #10

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check tournament context

    #13

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  15. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  16. The market odds assessment shows a clear and stable consensus favoring Egypt: implied win probability of 39% leads the draw (35.8%) and Iran (25.2%), with no sharp movements across 14 bookmaker samples over the visible update window. The absence of volatility and the uniform pricing across independent bookmakers strengthen the signal that the market perceives Egypt as the stronger side, even if the modest probability gap warrants only moderate confidence.

Conclusion note

The pre-match odds consensus across 13 bookmaker samples firmly prices Egypt as the favorite: the latest implied probabilities give Egypt a 39% chance to win, compared with 35.8% for a draw and just 25.2% for Iran. Odds have been stable across the most recent visible update window, with no sharp movements — for example, 10bet holds steady at Egypt 2.40 / draw 2.55 / Iran 3.80 and bet365 remains at Egypt 2.38 / draw 2.70 / Iran 3.80. This consistency across bookmakers signals a settled market view that Egypt holds a meaningful edge, though the narrow gap between the Egypt win and draw probabilities indicates the contest could be close.

Common opponent comparisonHome winThe common-opponent comparison clearly favors Egypt: they defeated New Zealand 3-1 (away) whereas Iran drew 2-2 (home), and Egypt scored in a 1-1 draw with Belgium while Iran was held scoreless 0-0. Egypt also leads Group G with 4 points against Iran's 2 and holds the schedule-listed home side advantage at Seattle Stadium. Bookmaker odds reinforce Egypt as the likeliest winner (39% implied), though the draw at 35.8% is close. Missing lineup, H2H, weather and ranking data cap confidence at a mode40%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Common opponent comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Egypt vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 4 completed matches and 2 remaining. Current group table: Egypt 4 pts/2 played; Iran 2 pts/2 played; Belgium 2 pts/2 played; New Zealand 1 pts/2 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 3; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 2 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-27 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check match details

    #12

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  14. Common opponent comparison for Egypt vs Iran: Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 (away) while Iran drew 2-2 (home). Egypt drew Belgium 1-1 (away) while Iran drew 0-0 (away). Egypt performed clearly better in both matchups. Group G standings also favor Egypt (4 pts) over Iran (2 pts). Odds consensus: Egypt 39%, Draw 35.8%, Iran 25.2%. No lineups, injuries, weather, H2H or rankings available — uncertainty is moderate.

  15. The common-opponent comparison clearly favors Egypt: they defeated New Zealand 3-1 (away) whereas Iran drew 2-2 (home), and Egypt scored in a 1-1 draw with Belgium while Iran was held scoreless 0-0. Egypt also leads Group G with 4 points against Iran's 2 and holds the schedule-listed home side advantage at Seattle Stadium. Bookmaker odds reinforce Egypt as the likeliest winner (39% implied), though the draw at 35.8% is close. Missing lineup, H2H, weather and ranking data cap confidence at a mode

Conclusion note

Egypt outperformed Iran against their shared World Cup group opponents: Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 away while Iran could only draw 2-2 at home, and Egypt drew Belgium 1-1 away while Iran managed a goalless 0-0 draw away. Egypt tops Group G with 4 points from two matches versus Iran's 2 points, and the bookmaker consensus gives Egypt roughly 39% implied win probability compared to 25% for Iran. No lineups, head-to-head records, weather data or FIFA rankings are available, so uncertainty remains moderate.

Synthesis

Egypt are favoured to beat Iran after a more convincing World Cup campaign so far. Egypt's recent results include a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, while Iran were held 2-2 by New Zealand and 0-0 by Belgium. Egypt lead Group G with four points and appear to have better attacking momentum. The betting market gives Egypt around a 39% implied win chance with a high 35.8% draw probability, suggesting a tight contest. All three independent assessments point to an Egypt victory but with moderate confidence. A narrow win such as 1-0 or 2-1 is the most likely scenario, though a stalemate cannot be ruled out.

Reasoning summary: Egypt's form trajectory and common-opponent results (beating New Zealand 3-1 vs Iran's 2-2 draw, and drawing Belgium 1-1 vs Iran's 0-0) give them a clear edge. Market odds imply a 39% win probability for Egypt, with draw at 35.8%. All three synthesis perspectives agree on an Egypt win, though the narrow probability gap and lack of lineup data cap confidence at 0.42.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.63. Probability distribution: Belgium win 63.0%; draw 21.0%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Iran win 60.0%; draw 25.0%; New Zealand win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-1 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Irelevance 0.50