Claude Opus 4.8 · Egypt vs Iran

EgyptvsIran
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win40%Miss
BetHome win$435Aligned
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$52.5
PredictionConfidence: 40%
Home win

Egypt are modest favorites over Iran, with bookmaker consensus implying about 39% for an Egypt win against 25% for Iran and a high 36% for the draw. Egypt's tournament-level form, including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, reads more convincingly than Iran's two World Cup draws, whose biggest wins came in friendlies; as a hypothesis Egypt may control possession and edge a low-scoring contest, but with lineups, injuries and weather uncaptured the draw remains a real threat, so confidence stays low.

Bet
Home win$4353 bets
Net P&L-$52.5
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $260
    odds 2.45Settled: loss-$260

    Betting rationale：Posture: modest favorite conviction backing the better tournament side. Match script: Egypt arrive with the more convincing World Cup form (3-1 over New Zealand, gritty 1-1 with Belgium) versus Iran whose standout wins came only in friendlies; Egypt should control possession and edge a low-scoring contest. The model's top probability sits on Egypt (0.40) and best_1x2 prices Egypt at 2.50 with ~flat edge, while execution at 2.45 is essentially fair. The draw is a genuine threat (0.35) but at 2.65

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,766.45

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $90
    odds 2.55Settled: loss-$90

    Betting rationale：Posture: modest favorite conviction, adding to existing Egypt position. Match script: Egypt arrive sharper after a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, taking more from shared opponents than Iran, who relied on friendlies for goals. Pinnacle prices Egypt at 2.550 and 1xbet best at 2.630 gives a small +0.010 edge versus the model's 0.390 lead over the 0.360 draw. The draw is a real trap (compact Iran), but probabilities still favor Egypt as the cleanest expression. I already hold

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,766.45

  • Correct score 1-1Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 1-1

    $85
    odds 4.50Settled: win+$297.5

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw-trap satellite layered onto my existing Egypt 1x2 exposure. Match script: two compact, defensively organized sides where Iran arrives off back-to-back World Cup stalemates (0-0 vs Belgium, 2-2 vs NZ) and Egypt's run is solid but narrow. The prediction screams a tight low-scoring game — the model's top score is exactly 1-1 (0.120), with a 37% draw chance, and pinnacle prices nearly identical Egypt/draw odds. My 1x2 book already backs Egypt twice; the live hedge angle here is the ver

    Payout: $382.5 · Balance after: $8,148.95

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 40%Draw 35%Away win 25%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - The 13 observed pre-match prices are tightly clustered and consistent, with Egypt around 2.38-2.45, the draw near 2.55-2.75, and Iran the longest price at 3.3-3.85, implying roughly 39% Egypt, 35.8% draw, and 25.2% Iran. With no consensus movement across the captured update times, the market settles on Egypt as the modest favorite, and Egypt's recent results including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium support a narrow lean to the home-listed side, though the closeness of the hom
  • - Egypt are the consensus favorites with a latest implied win probability of 39% versus 25.2% for Iran, and the market line (about 2.40 for Egypt against 3.3-3.85 for Iran) reflects that edge. Egypt's last five show real quality results, including a 3-1 away World Cup win over New Zealand, a 1-1 draw with Belgium, a 0-0 draw with Spain and a 1-0 win over Russia, beaten only narrowly by Brazil 1-2. Iran's two World Cup outings were both draws (0-0 with Belgium, 2-2 with New Zealand) padded by three
  • - Bookmaker consensus favors Egypt at roughly 39% versus 25.2% for Iran with the draw at 35.8%, and that edge aligns with the competition-context read: Iran's eye-catching scoring (5-0 over Costa Rica, 3-1 over Gambia, 2-0 over Mali) came almost entirely in friendlies, while their two World Cup 2026 fixtures both ended in draws (0-0 Belgium, 2-2 New Zealand), so that attacking momentum should be discounted at tournament level. Egypt, by contrast, produced results in the same World Cup stage, beati

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Belgium win 58.0%; draw 24.5%; Egypt win 17.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: Iran win 53.0%; draw 27.0%; New Zealand win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.65Log loss 1.05

Meta thinking

  • Market odds (13 observed pre-match prices)Examine the 13 observed pre-match odds to read implied probabilities across home win, draw and away win for Egypt vs Iran, and check spread or consistency among the captured prices.
  • Recent form across last five matchesCompare the five recent results for each side: Egypt's away World Cup win over New Zealand and draw with Belgium versus Iran's two World Cup draws plus three friendly wins, noting goals scored and conceded across competition tiers.
  • Competition context of recent fixturesAssess how friendly fixtures versus World Cup fixtures differ in each side's recent record, since Iran's strong scoring came mainly in friendlies while World Cup matches produced draws; weigh competition level when reading momentum.

Tokens: 312

Perspectives

Market odds (13 observed pre-match prices)Home winThe 13 observed pre-match prices are tightly clustered and consistent, with Egypt around 2.38-2.45, the draw near 2.55-2.75, and Iran the longest price at 3.3-3.85, implying roughly 39% Egypt, 35.8% draw, and 25.2% Iran. With no consensus movement across the captured update times, the market settles on Egypt as the modest favorite, and Egypt's recent results including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium support a narrow lean to the home-listed side, though the closeness of the hom40%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds (13 observed pre-match prices)

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The 13 observed pre-match prices are tightly clustered and consistent, with Egypt around 2.38-2.45, the draw near 2.55-2.75, and Iran the longest price at 3.3-3.85, implying roughly 39% Egypt, 35.8% draw, and 25.2% Iran. With no consensus movement across the captured update times, the market settles on Egypt as the modest favorite, and Egypt's recent results including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a draw with Belgium support a narrow lean to the home-listed side, though the closeness of the hom

Conclusion note

The market consensus across the 13 captured prices makes Egypt the slight favorite over Iran at about 39% home win versus 35.8% draw and 25.2% Iran win, with bookmaker lines tightly grouped (Egypt 2.38-2.45, draw 2.55-2.75, Iran 3.3-3.85) and no movement between updates; Egypt's recent form, including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a draw against Belgium, backs a cautious lean to the home side, but the narrow gap to the draw price keeps this a low-confidence call with lineups, weather and head-to-head data uncaptured.

Recent form across last five matchesHome winEgypt are the consensus favorites with a latest implied win probability of 39% versus 25.2% for Iran, and the market line (about 2.40 for Egypt against 3.3-3.85 for Iran) reflects that edge. Egypt's last five show real quality results, including a 3-1 away World Cup win over New Zealand, a 1-1 draw with Belgium, a 0-0 draw with Spain and a 1-0 win over Russia, beaten only narrowly by Brazil 1-2. Iran's two World Cup outings were both draws (0-0 with Belgium, 2-2 with New Zealand) padded by three40%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form across last five matches

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Egypt are the consensus favorites with a latest implied win probability of 39% versus 25.2% for Iran, and the market line (about 2.40 for Egypt against 3.3-3.85 for Iran) reflects that edge. Egypt's last five show real quality results, including a 3-1 away World Cup win over New Zealand, a 1-1 draw with Belgium, a 0-0 draw with Spain and a 1-0 win over Russia, beaten only narrowly by Brazil 1-2. Iran's two World Cup outings were both draws (0-0 with Belgium, 2-2 with New Zealand) padded by three

Conclusion note

Egypt are favored by the market at roughly 39% implied win probability against Iran's 25.2%, supported by stronger recent World Cup form including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, whereas Iran managed only two World Cup draws (0-0 with Belgium, 2-2 with New Zealand) before this fixture. With lineups, injuries, weather and head-to-head all uncaptured and a high 35.8% draw probability, confidence is tempered, but Egypt's edge in odds and elite-opposition results points to a narrow home win..

Competition context of recent fixturesHome winBookmaker consensus favors Egypt at roughly 39% versus 25.2% for Iran with the draw at 35.8%, and that edge aligns with the competition-context read: Iran's eye-catching scoring (5-0 over Costa Rica, 3-1 over Gambia, 2-0 over Mali) came almost entirely in friendlies, while their two World Cup 2026 fixtures both ended in draws (0-0 Belgium, 2-2 New Zealand), so that attacking momentum should be discounted at tournament level. Egypt, by contrast, produced results in the same World Cup stage, beati43%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Competition context of recent fixtures

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: EGY vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Egypt: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Egypt: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 39%, draw 35.8%, side B win 25.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z -> 2026-06-26T02:07:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.4 / draw 2.55 / side B 3.8; william_hill side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3 → side A 2.45 / draw 2.75 / side B 3.3; bet365 side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8 → side A 2.38 / draw 2.7 / side B 3.8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 2.4, draw 2.55, side B 3.8; william_hill: side A 2.45, draw 2.75, side B 3.3; bet365: side A 2.38, draw 2.7, side B 3.8; marathonbet: side A 2.42, draw 2.67, side B 3.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.15 / under 5.25; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 6; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.12 / under 4.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Egypt:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-28T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against South Africa, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-22T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Belgium, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Bookmaker consensus favors Egypt at roughly 39% versus 25.2% for Iran with the draw at 35.8%, and that edge aligns with the competition-context read: Iran's eye-catching scoring (5-0 over Costa Rica, 3-1 over Gambia, 2-0 over Mali) came almost entirely in friendlies, while their two World Cup 2026 fixtures both ended in draws (0-0 Belgium, 2-2 New Zealand), so that attacking momentum should be discounted at tournament level. Egypt, by contrast, produced results in the same World Cup stage, beati

Conclusion note

Egypt are modest favorites over Iran, with bookmaker consensus implying about 39% for an Egypt win against 25.2% for Iran and 35.8% for the draw, and Egypt's World Cup 2026 form (a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium) reads more convincingly than Iran's, whose biggest scorelines came in friendlies while their two World Cup matches were both draws. With lineups, injuries, weather and head-to-head all uncaptured, confidence is tempered by a genuinely live draw probability.

Synthesis

Egypt are modest favorites over Iran, with bookmaker consensus implying about 39% for an Egypt win against 25% for Iran and a high 36% for the draw. Egypt's tournament-level form, including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, reads more convincingly than Iran's two World Cup draws, whose biggest wins came in friendlies; as a hypothesis Egypt may control possession and edge a low-scoring contest, but with lineups, injuries and weather uncaptured the draw remains a real threat, so confidence stays low.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives lean to an Egypt win, with the market view, recent-form view and competition-context view aligning on roughly 39% Egypt, 36% draw and 25% Iran. Egypt's edge rests on credible World Cup 2026 results including a 3-1 win over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, while Iran's eye-catching scorelines came mostly in friendlies and their two World Cup outings were both draws. The narrow gap between the home win and draw prices, plus uncaptured lineups, injuries and weather, k

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Belgium win 58.0%; draw 24.5%; Egypt win 17.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: Iran win 53.0%; draw 27.0%; New Zealand win 20.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Irelevance 0.50