MiMo V2.5 Pro · Croatia vs Ghana

CroatiavsGhana
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win56%Hit
BetBet portfolio$405Bet portfolio
Post-match result2-1
Net P&L-$174.9
PredictionConfidence: 56%
Home win

Croatia are the favorites to defeat Ghana based on strong market consensus and unanimous perspective picks, but their recent tendency to concede first and Ghana's disciplined draw against England and win over Panama in this World Cup create meaningful uncertainty in the outcome.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4053 bets
Net P&L-$174.9
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 3.17Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw/trap protection. Match script: Ghana showed elite defensive discipline with a 0-0 clean sheet against England, the same team that hammered Croatia 4-2. Ghana will likely sit compact and frustrate Croatia's attack, creating a classic trap match. The model gives draw 35% probability vs market implied ~30%, yielding positive edge of +0.035 at execution price 3.170 (pinnacle). This also hedges my existing $130 Croatia position - if Croatia's defensive fragility from the Englan

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,293

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $130
    odds 1.77Settled: win+$100.1

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction with modest sizing. Match script: Croatia are 56% model favorites but Ghana's disciplined World Cup form (drew England, beat Panama) creates a tight, low-scoring contest. Execution price at Pinnacle (1.770) is nearly fair against model probability. Small 2% stake reflects the thin edge but genuine quality gap between sides—Croatia's tournament pedigree should edge out a compact but limited Ghana side.

    Payout: $230.1 · Balance after: $5,293

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $75
    odds 5.52Settled: loss-$75

    Betting rationale：Football posture: portfolio hedge with positive edge. My existing positions ($130 Croatia, $200 draw) leave me completely exposed if Ghana pulls the upset. The model shows +4.9% edge on Ghana at 5.520 (Pinnacle), the only positive edge across all three outcomes. Match script supports the angle: Ghana held England 0-0 and beat Panama 1-0 — they are compact, disciplined, and capable of frustrating favorites in a World Cup group stage. A small satellite stake fills the portfolio gap and captures th

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,293

Post-match result2-1
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 56%Draw 28%Away win 16%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1
  3. #32-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - The market clearly prices Croatia as favorites at approximately 54% implied probability, supported by stable odds with no movement across multiple bookmakers. Ghana's 17% implied win probability aligns with their inconsistent recent record, though the 29% draw probability represents meaningful uncertainty. Croatia's FIFA ranking pedigree and recent 1-0 World Cup win over Panama, combined with Ghana's struggles against quality opposition in friendlies, supports siding with the market consensus fo
  • - Croatia's recent form includes a World Cup win over Panama (1-0) and competitive results against strong opponents, though losses to England (2-4), Belgium (0-2), and Brazil (1-3) show vulnerability. Ghana's recent form shows just 2 wins and 6 losses in 10 matches, with their best result being a 0-0 draw against England in this World Cup. Both teams beat Panama in the group stage, but Croatia's consistent attacking output and bookmaker consensus favoring them at over 53% supports a side A win, al
  • - The market favors Croatia at 53.6% implied probability versus Ghana's 17.4%, which broadly reflects the significant ranking disparity (11th vs 74th). However, Croatia's actual recent form—only 4 wins in 10 matches, negative goal difference, and conceding first in 90% of games—suggests their favorite status is slightly inflated relative to current performance. Ghana's poor friendly record contrasts with solid World Cup results (draw with England, win over Panama), but their low possession (37%) a

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: England win 58.0%; draw 24.1%; Croatia win 17.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 2-0 Croatia, Engl
  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.3%; draw 25.8%; Croatia win 18.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England
  • - Recall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Panama win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Ghana win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Panama win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 0-1 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 1-2 Panama.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.30Log loss 0.58

Meta thinking

  • Market oddsAnalyze the 12 captured betting odds to assess market expectations without presuming a favored outcome.
  • Recent formReview Croatia's and Ghana's last five match records in World Cup and friendlies to identify trends in results and scoring.
  • Form vs. odds consistencyCompare the teams' recent performances with the captured odds to investigate any divergences or alignments between results and market sentiment.

Tokens: 2907

Perspectives

Market oddsHome winThe market clearly prices Croatia as favorites at approximately 54% implied probability, supported by stable odds with no movement across multiple bookmakers. Ghana's 17% implied win probability aligns with their inconsistent recent record, though the 29% draw probability represents meaningful uncertainty. Croatia's FIFA ranking pedigree and recent 1-0 World Cup win over Panama, combined with Ghana's struggles against quality opposition in friendlies, supports siding with the market consensus fo60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 53.6%, draw 29%, side B win 17.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2 → side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2; william_hill side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5 → side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.76, draw 3.25, side B 5.2; william_hill: side A 1.73, draw 3.3, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.75, draw 3.3, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.78, draw 3.28, side B 5.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 53.6%, draw 29%, side B win 17.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2 → side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2; william_hill side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5 → side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.76, draw 3.25, side B 5.2; william_hill: side A 1.73, draw 3.3, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.75, draw 3.3, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.78, draw 3.28, side B 5.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.55.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market clearly prices Croatia as favorites at approximately 54% implied probability, supported by stable odds with no movement across multiple bookmakers. Ghana's 17% implied win probability aligns with their inconsistent recent record, though the 29% draw probability represents meaningful uncertainty. Croatia's FIFA ranking pedigree and recent 1-0 World Cup win over Panama, combined with Ghana's struggles against quality opposition in friendlies, supports siding with the market consensus fo

Conclusion note

Croatia are clear market favorites against Ghana, with consensus implied probability of 53.6% for a Croatia win compared to just 17.4% for a Ghana victory across 13 bookmaker samples; the odds have remained stable with zero percentage-point movement over the observation window, indicating settled market expectations. The tight bookmaker consensus (Croatia 1.73-1.78 decimal odds across major books including bet365, William Hill, and 10bet) reinforces the market's conviction, while Ghana's poor overall recent form of two wins in ten matches despite a creditable World Cup draw against England suggests limited upside for the underdog.

Recent formHome winCroatia's recent form includes a World Cup win over Panama (1-0) and competitive results against strong opponents, though losses to England (2-4), Belgium (0-2), and Brazil (1-3) show vulnerability. Ghana's recent form shows just 2 wins and 6 losses in 10 matches, with their best result being a 0-0 draw against England in this World Cup. Both teams beat Panama in the group stage, but Croatia's consistent attacking output and bookmaker consensus favoring them at over 53% supports a side A win, al56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 53.6%, draw 29%, side B win 17.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2 → side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2; william_hill side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5 → side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.76, draw 3.25, side B 5.2; william_hill: side A 1.73, draw 3.3, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.75, draw 3.3, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.78, draw 3.28, side B 5.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Croatia's recent form includes a World Cup win over Panama (1-0) and competitive results against strong opponents, though losses to England (2-4), Belgium (0-2), and Brazil (1-3) show vulnerability. Ghana's recent form shows just 2 wins and 6 losses in 10 matches, with their best result being a 0-0 draw against England in this World Cup. Both teams beat Panama in the group stage, but Croatia's consistent attacking output and bookmaker consensus favoring them at over 53% supports a side A win, al

Conclusion note

Croatia are priced as clear favorites with 53.6% implied probability across 12 bookmaker samples (odds around 1.75), and their recent form shows they beat Panama 1-0 in the World Cup while Ghana managed the same result against Panama but also drew 0-0 with England; Croatia's stronger overall competitive pedigree and market support point toward a likely Croatian victory, though Ghana's disciplined draw against England in this tournament introduces meaningful uncertainty.

Form vs. odds consistencyHome winThe market favors Croatia at 53.6% implied probability versus Ghana's 17.4%, which broadly reflects the significant ranking disparity (11th vs 74th). However, Croatia's actual recent form—only 4 wins in 10 matches, negative goal difference, and conceding first in 90% of games—suggests their favorite status is slightly inflated relative to current performance. Ghana's poor friendly record contrasts with solid World Cup results (draw with England, win over Panama), but their low possession (37%) a52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Form vs. odds consistency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 53.6%, draw 29%, side B win 17.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2 → side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2; william_hill side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5 → side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.76, draw 3.25, side B 5.2; william_hill: side A 1.73, draw 3.3, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.75, draw 3.3, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.78, draw 3.28, side B 5.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Check team process facts

    #9

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Croatia recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 10. record 4W-2D-4L；goals for/against 14/17, per-match 1.4/1.7。 Stat averages: shots 11.44, shots on target 4.44, possession 53.44, corners 3.78, fouls 8.71, yellow cards 2, red cards 1, passes 462.14, pass accuracy 89.14, xG 0.43. Event sample: scored first in 1, conceded first in 9, penalty events 0/1, 96 substitution events, average minute 66. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 10; formations recorded: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Ghana recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 10. record 2W-2D-6L；goals for/against 9/15, per-match 0.9/1.5。 Stat averages: shots 5.88, shots on target 1.75, possession 37, corners 2.71, fouls 8, yellow cards 1.57, red cards 0, passes 364.33, pass accuracy 82.67, xG 1.79. Event sample: scored first in 3, conceded first in 6, penalty events 0/4, 111 substitution events, average minute 65. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 10; formations recorded: 4-4-1-1 (3), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Croatia's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 11. points 1717.07; previous rank 11; previous points 1716.88; rated matches 55; confederation UEFA.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Ghana's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 74. points 1346.31; previous rank 72; previous points 1351.09; rated matches 64; confederation CAF.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. The market favors Croatia at 53.6% implied probability versus Ghana's 17.4%, which broadly reflects the significant ranking disparity (11th vs 74th). However, Croatia's actual recent form—only 4 wins in 10 matches, negative goal difference, and conceding first in 90% of games—suggests their favorite status is slightly inflated relative to current performance. Ghana's poor friendly record contrasts with solid World Cup results (draw with England, win over Panama), but their low possession (37%) a

Conclusion note

Croatia (ranked 11th) are priced as clear 53.6%-implied-probability favorites over Ghana (ranked 74th), and this pricing aligns broadly with the 63-place FIFA ranking gap, though Croatia's recent form shows only a 40% win rate (4W-2D-4L) with negative goal difference and they conceded first in 9 of their last 10 matches, which suggests some tension between market sentiment and on-field results. Ghana have a poor overall record (2W-2D-6L) but showed resilience at this World Cup with a 0-0 draw against England and a 1-0 win over Panama, making them a potentially undervalued underdog at 17.4% implied probability.

Synthesis

Croatia are the favorites to defeat Ghana based on strong market consensus and unanimous perspective picks, but their recent tendency to concede first and Ghana's disciplined draw against England and win over Panama in this World Cup create meaningful uncertainty in the outcome.

Reasoning summary: Market odds, recent form, and form-vs-odds-consistency perspectives all select Croatia as the winner, with confidence values between 0.52 and 0.60 reflecting a market-implied probability of approximately 53.6%. Although Croatia's recent form includes defensive lapses and Ghana has shown resilience, the overall evidence favors Croatia due to their higher pedigree and stable bookmaker support.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Preview editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: England win 58.0%; draw 24.1%; Croatia win 17.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 2-0 Croatia, Englrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Late editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.3%; draw 25.8%; Croatia win 18.9%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ghana vs Panama Late editionRecall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Panama win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Ghana win 30.0%; draw 28.0%; Panama win 42.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 0-1 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 1-2 Panama. relevance 0.50