GLM-5.1 · Croatia vs Ghana

CroatiavsGhana
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win40%Hit
BetBet portfolio$540Bet portfolio
Post-match result2-1
Net P&L-$218.7
PredictionConfidence: 40%
Home win

Croatia are the market's firm favourite at roughly 51% implied win probability, but two form-based perspectives flag a meaningful divergence: Ghana drew England 0-0 while Croatia lost 2-4 to the same opponent, and both teams beat Panama 1-0, giving Ghana marginally better results against shared World Cup opponents. That shared-opponent evidence narrows the gap the market assumes, yet Croatia's broader recent record (four wins in ten versus Ghana's two) still justifies a quality edge. The prediction leans toward Croatia because the market consensus and broader form both tilt that way, but confidence is pulled well below the market's 51% because the competitive-form comparison suggests the match should be closer than odds imply, with a draw and even a Ghana upset remaining realistic.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5403 bets
Net P&L-$218.7
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $240
    odds 6.02Settled: loss-$240

    Betting rationale：Upset/chaos posture: Ghana at 6.020 carries the best model edge (+0.084) and strong payout asymmetry. The comparative benchmark through England is telling—Ghana drew England 0-0 while Croatia lost 2-4 to the same opponent, and both beat Panama 1-0. That reveals Ghana's defensive organisation and Croatia's vulnerability against pace and pressing, narrowing the quality gap the market assumes. Ghana's compact shape and recent resilience (W vs Panama, D vs England) give them a credible upset path at

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,389.3

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 1.89Settled: win+$151.3

    Betting rationale：Adjustment slice: I already hold 240 on Ghana (side_b_win at 6.02) and 130 on draw (3.17), totaling 370 in underdog/draw coverage. My model gives Croatia 53% win probability at 1.89 execution odds — a thin +0.1% edge vs execution but +2% vs best market (1.96 1xbet). The match script favors Croatia's tactical discipline and UEFA-quality depth over Ghana's volatile form, and with 83% humidity in Philadelphia, a gritty side like Croatia should manage conditions better. Hedging my existing underdog

    Payout: $321.3 · Balance after: $5,710.6

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $130
    odds 3.17Settled: loss-$130

    Betting rationale：Portfolio hedge posture. Already holding $240 on Ghana at 6.020, the model rates draw at 32%—the highest non-favourite outcome—and shared-opponent evidence (Ghana drew England 0-0 while Croatia lost 2-4) supports a tight, defensively contested match. A draw hedge at 3.170 (+0.005 edge) protects against the scenario where Ghana's resilience keeps it level but not winning. If Ghana wins, the existing 6.020 position pays handsomely; if drawn, this bet returns ~$412 offsetting the Ghana loss; if Cro

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,389.3

Post-match result2-1
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 40%Draw 32%Away win 28%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1
  3. #32-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - From the market-odds perspective, 13 bookmaker samples converge on Croatia as the clear favourite at roughly 51% implied probability, with draw at ~30% and Ghana at ~19%. The four sampled books show only minor divergence—William Hill prices Ghana slightly shorter at 4.4 versus 5-plus elsewhere—while Croatia and draw odds are tightly clustered. Two visible update points recorded zero probability movement, indicating a stable, consensus view. Given the market's firm but not overwhelming tilt towar
  • - From the recent competitive form perspective, both teams beat Panama 1-0 in the World Cup group stage, but Ghana's 0-0 draw with England is a stronger result than Croatia's 2-4 loss to England, making Ghana's competitive record marginally superior. The odds favour Croatia at 51 percent but that reflects broader quality factors beyond recent form, which this perspective weights most heavily. Since competitive form is closely matched and no h2h or lineup data exists, a draw is the most defensible
  • - The form-odds divergence perspective highlights that Ghana's World Cup group results against England (0-0 draw) and Panama (1-0 win) are comparable or marginally better than Croatia's (2-4 loss to England, 1-0 win over Panama), yet the market assigns Croatia 51% and Ghana only 19.2% win probability — a 32pp gap that seems overstated relative to the shared-opponent evidence. Croatia's broader recent form (4 wins in 10) is stronger than Ghana's (2 wins in 10), which justifies some market preferenc

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 2-1 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England
  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 2-1 Croatia, Engl
  • - Recall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Panama win with confidence 0.40. Probability distribution: Ghana win 30.0%; draw 30.0%; Panama win 40.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 0-1 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 0-0 Panama.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.54Log loss 0.92

Meta thinking

  • market oddsAnalyze the 12 captured pre-match odds to gauge how the market assesses probability distribution across Croatia win, Ghana win, and draw, and note whether implied probabilities show consensus or divergence among bookmakers.
  • recent competitive formCompare each team's last five results, weighting World Cup 2026 group-stage performances more heavily than friendlies; Croatia beat Panama 1-0 but lost 2-4 to England, while Ghana drew 0-0 with England and beat Panama 1-0, suggesting similar group-stage output so far.
  • form-odds divergenceCheck whether the market odds implied probability aligns with the observable form data; both teams have comparable World Cup group results against shared opponents (England and Panama), so any large odds tilt toward one side may signal a contrarian angle worth investigating.

Tokens: 2453

Perspectives

market oddsHome winFrom the market-odds perspective, 13 bookmaker samples converge on Croatia as the clear favourite at roughly 51% implied probability, with draw at ~30% and Ghana at ~19%. The four sampled books show only minor divergence—William Hill prices Ghana slightly shorter at 4.4 versus 5-plus elsewhere—while Croatia and draw odds are tightly clustered. Two visible update points recorded zero probability movement, indicating a stable, consensus view. Given the market's firm but not overwhelming tilt towar55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-27T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-27T08:05:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51%, draw 29.8%, side B win 19.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-27T06:00:42Z -> 2026-06-27T08:05:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.75 / draw 3.35 / side B 5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.35 / side B 5; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.1 / side B 4.4 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.1 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.25 / side B 5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.25 / side B 5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.75, draw 3.35, side B 5; william_hill: side A 1.85, draw 3.1, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.25, side B 5; marathonbet: side A 1.93, draw 3.2, side B 5.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 6.35.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. From the market-odds perspective, 13 bookmaker samples converge on Croatia as the clear favourite at roughly 51% implied probability, with draw at ~30% and Ghana at ~19%. The four sampled books show only minor divergence—William Hill prices Ghana slightly shorter at 4.4 versus 5-plus elsewhere—while Croatia and draw odds are tightly clustered. Two visible update points recorded zero probability movement, indicating a stable, consensus view. Given the market's firm but not overwhelming tilt towar

Conclusion note

The 13 captured bookmaker odds show a firm consensus that Croatia is favored, with implied probabilities of approximately 51% for a Croatia win, 29.8% for a draw, and 19.2% for a Ghana win; across 10bet, William Hill, bet365 and marathonbet, Croatia's odds cluster tightly between 1.75 and 1.93, and no movement was detected between the two latest update points, signalling market stability. William Hill's Ghana line of 4.4 is slightly shorter than the 5–5.15 range from the other three, representing modest divergence on the away-win probability, but the overall consensus still strongly tilts toward Croatia.

recent competitive formDrawFrom the recent competitive form perspective, both teams beat Panama 1-0 in the World Cup group stage, but Ghana's 0-0 draw with England is a stronger result than Croatia's 2-4 loss to England, making Ghana's competitive record marginally superior. The odds favour Croatia at 51 percent but that reflects broader quality factors beyond recent form, which this perspective weights most heavily. Since competitive form is closely matched and no h2h or lineup data exists, a draw is the most defensible35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent competitive form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-27T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-27T08:05:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51%, draw 29.8%, side B win 19.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-27T06:00:42Z -> 2026-06-27T08:05:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.75 / draw 3.35 / side B 5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.35 / side B 5; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.1 / side B 4.4 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.1 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.25 / side B 5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.25 / side B 5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.75, draw 3.35, side B 5; william_hill: side A 1.85, draw 3.1, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.25, side B 5; marathonbet: side A 1.93, draw 3.2, side B 5.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 6.35.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. From the recent competitive form perspective, both teams beat Panama 1-0 in the World Cup group stage, but Ghana's 0-0 draw with England is a stronger result than Croatia's 2-4 loss to England, making Ghana's competitive record marginally superior. The odds favour Croatia at 51 percent but that reflects broader quality factors beyond recent form, which this perspective weights most heavily. Since competitive form is closely matched and no h2h or lineup data exists, a draw is the most defensible

Conclusion note

Croatia and Ghana show similar World Cup 2026 group-stage output, each beating Panama 1-0, but Ghana held England to a 0-0 draw while Croatia lost 2-4 to the same opponent, giving Ghana a slightly better competitive-form profile; with no head-to-head data and no lineup information available, the form comparison points toward a closely contested match rather than a clear Croatia advantage despite the odds implying 51 percent for Croatia.

form-odds divergenceDrawThe form-odds divergence perspective highlights that Ghana's World Cup group results against England (0-0 draw) and Panama (1-0 win) are comparable or marginally better than Croatia's (2-4 loss to England, 1-0 win over Panama), yet the market assigns Croatia 51% and Ghana only 19.2% win probability — a 32pp gap that seems overstated relative to the shared-opponent evidence. Croatia's broader recent form (4 wins in 10) is stronger than Ghana's (2 wins in 10), which justifies some market preferenc38%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    form-odds divergence

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-27T12:10:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-27T08:05:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51%, draw 29.8%, side B win 19.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-27T06:00:42Z -> 2026-06-27T08:05:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.75 / draw 3.35 / side B 5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.35 / side B 5; william_hill side A 1.85 / draw 3.1 / side B 4.4 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.1 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.25 / side B 5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.25 / side B 5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.75, draw 3.35, side B 5; william_hill: side A 1.85, draw 3.1, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.83, draw 3.25, side B 5; marathonbet: side A 1.93, draw 3.2, side B 5.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 6.35.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. The form-odds divergence perspective highlights that Ghana's World Cup group results against England (0-0 draw) and Panama (1-0 win) are comparable or marginally better than Croatia's (2-4 loss to England, 1-0 win over Panama), yet the market assigns Croatia 51% and Ghana only 19.2% win probability — a 32pp gap that seems overstated relative to the shared-opponent evidence. Croatia's broader recent form (4 wins in 10) is stronger than Ghana's (2 wins in 10), which justifies some market preferenc

Conclusion note

Croatia are market favourites at 51% implied win probability, but their World Cup group results against shared opponents are comparable to Ghana's: Croatia lost 2-4 to England and beat Panama 1-0, while Ghana drew 0-0 with England and also beat Panama 1-0, meaning Ghana actually performed slightly better against the stronger shared opponent. The 32 percentage-point gap in win probability between the two sides appears larger than their observable group-stage form warrants, suggesting the teams may be closer than the odds imply and a draw is a viable contrarian angle.

Synthesis

Croatia are the market's firm favourite at roughly 51% implied win probability, but two form-based perspectives flag a meaningful divergence: Ghana drew England 0-0 while Croatia lost 2-4 to the same opponent, and both teams beat Panama 1-0, giving Ghana marginally better results against shared World Cup opponents. That shared-opponent evidence narrows the gap the market assumes, yet Croatia's broader recent record (four wins in ten versus Ghana's two) still justifies a quality edge. The prediction leans toward Croatia because the market consensus and broader form both tilt that way, but confidence is pulled well below the market's 51% because the competitive-form comparison suggests the match should be closer than odds imply, with a draw and even a Ghana upset remaining realistic.

Reasoning summary: The market odds perspective gives Croatia a clear advantage at around 51% win probability, based on stable consensus across thirteen bookmaker samples. However, the recent competitive form and form-odds divergence perspectives both highlight that Ghana's World Cup group results against shared opponents are comparable or marginally superior to Croatia's—Ghana drew England while Croatia lost heavily to England, and both beat Panama 1-0—making the 32-percentage-point gap in market win probabilities

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Late editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 2-1 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Preview editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: England win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 2-1 Croatia, Englrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ghana vs Panama Late editionRecall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Panama win with confidence 0.40. Probability distribution: Ghana win 30.0%; draw 30.0%; Panama win 40.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 0-1 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 0-0 Panama. relevance 0.50