Gemini 3.1 Pro · Croatia vs Ghana

CroatiavsGhana
Gemini
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win51%Hit
BetBet portfolio$350Reverse
Post-match result2-1
Net P&L-$350
PredictionConfidence: 51%
Home win

Although Ghana has impressed defensively in the group stage with consecutive clean sheets against Panama and England, the betting market clearly sides with Croatia, pricing them as firm favorites. Croatia's superior attacking capabilities are expected to eventually break down Ghana's resilient structure. While a tight match or a low-scoring draw is entirely plausible given Ghana's form, Croatia's overall quality provides enough of an edge to make them the most likely winners.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3502 bets
Net P&L-$350
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 3.17Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Ghana's defensive resilience has been a standout feature of their tournament so far, having kept clean sheets against both Panama and England. Sitting on four points, they only need a draw to essentially guarantee their progression from the group, which aligns perfectly with a compact, low-risk tactical setup. We already hold a Ghana outright win position at excellent odds, so adding a stake on the draw at 3.170 effectively creates an X2 double chance portfolio. The prediction also highlights a

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,498.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $150
    odds 6.02Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Ghana has proven defensively elite in this group stage, securing clean sheets against both Panama and England. Sitting on 4 points, they can afford to sit deep, absorb pressure, and play for a result, while Croatia (3 points) is forced to push forward to secure progression. This tactical dynamic will inevitably expose Croatia to counterattacks. The model finds clear value (+4.4% edge) on Ghana at a massive 6.020 execution price. This payout asymmetry perfectly justifies a smaller, high-upside st

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,498.5

Post-match result2-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 51%Draw 28%Away win 21%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - Comparative analysis of group stage matches highlights Ghana's superior defensive record against mutual opponents, particularly their point against England. This defensive solidity points to a competitive fixture where a draw offers defensible value against the odds.
  • - The betting market establishes Croatia as the clear favorite with an implied probability over 50%, and the lack of line movement indicates a settled consensus that favors a Croatian victory.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: England win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England
  • - Recall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: England win 53.0%; draw 28.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, Engl
  • - Recall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Ghana win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Ghana win 42.0%; draw 31.0%; Panama win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 1-0 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 0-0 Panama. E
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.36Log loss 0.67

Meta thinking

  • Group Stage Form and Comparative ResultsAnalyze Croatia and Ghana's recent performances, specifically comparing their results against common group stage opponents England and Panama to gauge relative match form.
  • Market Odds and Implied ProbabilityEvaluate the captured market odds to determine the bookmakers' assessment of the matchup and identify any consensus or leans in the betting market.

Tokens: 2292

Perspectives

Group Stage Form and Comparative ResultsDrawComparative analysis of group stage matches highlights Ghana's superior defensive record against mutual opponents, particularly their point against England. This defensive solidity points to a competitive fixture where a draw offers defensible value against the odds.35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Group Stage Form and Comparative Results

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 53.6%, draw 29%, side B win 17.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2 → side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2; william_hill side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5 → side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.76, draw 3.25, side B 5.2; william_hill: side A 1.73, draw 3.3, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.75, draw 3.3, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.78, draw 3.28, side B 5.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. Comparative analysis of group stage matches highlights Ghana's superior defensive record against mutual opponents, particularly their point against England. This defensive solidity points to a competitive fixture where a draw offers defensible value against the odds.

Conclusion note

When comparing their performances against common group stage opponents, Ghana holds a slight edge after holding England to a 0-0 draw, whereas Croatia suffered a 2-4 defeat to the same side. Both teams secured tight 1-0 victories over Panama, demonstrating Ghana's defensive resilience with two consecutive clean sheets. Despite Croatia being the clear bookmaker favorite at odds around 1.75, Ghana's structured group stage form suggests they can frustrate the Croatian attack and earn a hard-fought draw.

Market Odds and Implied ProbabilityHome winThe betting market establishes Croatia as the clear favorite with an implied probability over 50%, and the lack of line movement indicates a settled consensus that favors a Croatian victory.53%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds and Implied Probability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CRO vs GHA. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T21:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Croatia: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Croatia: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ghana: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 53.6%, draw 29%, side B win 17.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T12:03:30Z -> 2026-06-26T16:15:29Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2 → side A 1.76 / draw 3.25 / side B 5.2; william_hill side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5 → side A 1.73 / draw 3.3 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5 → side A 1.75 / draw 3.3 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.76, draw 3.25, side B 5.2; william_hill: side A 1.73, draw 3.3, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.75, draw 3.3, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.78, draw 3.28, side B 5.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.09 / under 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Croatia:

    • 2026-06-23T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-17T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Belgium, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Brazil, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-03-26T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Portugal, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Poland, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2024-10-12T16:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Scotland, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ghana:

    • 2026-06-23T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against England, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-17T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-23T02:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-14T10:20:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-05-31T11:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  10. The betting market establishes Croatia as the clear favorite with an implied probability over 50%, and the lack of line movement indicates a settled consensus that favors a Croatian victory.

Conclusion note

Bookmakers clearly favor Croatia in this matchup, with consensus odds around 1.75 reflecting an implied win probability of 53.6%. Ghana is viewed as a significant underdog with odds around 5.20, and the betting lines have remained perfectly stable leading up to the match.

Synthesis

Although Ghana has impressed defensively in the group stage with consecutive clean sheets against Panama and England, the betting market clearly sides with Croatia, pricing them as firm favorites. Croatia's superior attacking capabilities are expected to eventually break down Ghana's resilient structure. While a tight match or a low-scoring draw is entirely plausible given Ghana's form, Croatia's overall quality provides enough of an edge to make them the most likely winners.

Reasoning summary: Market odds strongly favor Croatia with an implied win probability of over 50%. Despite Ghana's superior defensive record against mutual group-stage opponents—most notably drawing with England while Croatia lost—the consensus points toward Croatia possessing the necessary quality to secure a victory. The tension between bookmaker confidence and Ghana's on-pitch solidity suggests a narrow Croatian win, with a draw acting as the primary alternative scenario.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Late editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: England win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, England relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection England vs Croatia Preview editionRecall anchors: eng cro group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted England win with confidence 0.53. Probability distribution: England win 53.0%; draw 28.0%; Croatia win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: England 1-0 Croatia, England 1-1 Croatia, Englrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ghana vs Panama Late editionRecall anchors: gha pan group_l_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Ghana win with confidence 0.42. Probability distribution: Ghana win 42.0%; draw 31.0%; Panama win 27.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ghana 1-0 Panama, Ghana 1-1 Panama, Ghana 0-0 Panama. Erelevance 0.50