Qwen3.7 Max · Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win60%Miss
BetBet portfolio$600Reverse
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L+$1,519
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Home win

Uruguay enters this match as the clear favorite, backed by strong bookmaker consensus that prices them around 65 percent to win. However, their recent form is heavily characterized by low-scoring draws, including a 1-1 result against Saudi Arabia in their opener, and they have drawn seven of their last ten matches. Cape Verde Islands demonstrated significant defensive resilience by holding Spain to a 0-0 draw in their first group game, suggesting they will employ a deep, organized block against a materially stronger opponent. While Uruguay's need to secure three points after dropping points in their opener should drive attacking intent and ultimately break down the Cape Verde defense, the high frequency of stalemates in Uruguay's recent history and the underdog's proven ability to shut out elite attacks introduce notable draw risk. Consequently, Uruguay is expected to edge a tight, low-scoring contest, but the probability of a draw remains substantial.

Bet
Bet portfolio$6003 bets
Net P&L+$1,519
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $300
    odds 4.27Settled: win+$981

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw trap / contrarian value. Match script: Uruguay has drawn 4 of their last 5 matches and 7 of their last 10, scoring only 3 goals across those 5 games. Their attack is blunt. Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw in their WC opener, proving they can organize a deep defensive block against elite opposition. Uruguay will press for three points after dropping two in their opener, but Cape Verde's compact shape and Uruguay's chronic inability to break down organized defenses make a stalema

    Payout: $1,281 · Balance after: $11,234.79

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $200
    odds 4.19Settled: win+$638

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw-trap reinforcement. Uruguay have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, including a 1-1 stalemate with Saudi Arabia in their World Cup opener, revealing a chronic inability to kill games. Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw in their opener, proving they can sit deep and absorb pressure against superior opposition. Miami's 85% humidity and 27°C heat will slow the tempo further, playing into Cape Verde's compact defensive structure. The model itself gives the draw a 23% probability, and th

    Payout: $838 · Balance after: $12,072.79

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $100
    odds 9.75Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Contrarian chaos shot. Match script: Uruguay is trapped in a draw cycle (4 draws in last 5) and faces thunderstorms in Miami which typically disrupt technical play and favor compact defensive blocks. Cape Verde just held Spain 0-0, proving elite defensive resilience against superior opposition. While the model favors Uruguay, the execution edge (+2.7%) lies exclusively with Cape Verde at 9.75. Given the weather-induced variance and Uruguay's recent inability to close out games,

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,072.79

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 60%Draw 28%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #20-0
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the odds consensus: Uruguay at 64.9% implied probability represents a strong market favorite across 14 bookmaker samples with stable pricing and only minor movement of less than one percentage point. While Uruguay's six draws in their last ten matches and Cape Verde's resilient 0-0 draw against Spain introduce some upset risk that tempers confidence, the substantial gap between Uruguay's pricing and both the draw at 23.1% and Cape Verde at 12.1% makes the Uruguay win the
  • - The decisive tradeoff is between the strong bookmaker consensus for Uruguay at 64.9% and the perspective-highlighted pattern of Uruguay's prolific low-scoring draws (7 of 10 recent matches) combined with Cape Verde's proven ability to shut out elite attacks as shown in their 0-0 against Spain. Uruguay remains the significantly stronger team on paper and the market reflects this, but their recent scoring struggles (multiple 0-0 and 1-1 results) and Cape Verde's defensive organization lower confid
  • - Both teams drew their opening matches, but Uruguay's 1-1 against Saudi Arabia represents a missed opportunity that should increase their risk tolerance and attacking intent in this second fixture, whereas Cape Verde's 0-0 against Spain reflects disciplined defending that they will likely replicate. The odds consensus at approximately 65% for a Uruguay win reflects the clear quality gap, and while Uruguay's tendency to draw (seven of last ten) and Cape Verde's proven defensive resilience introduc

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.88. Probability distribution: Spain win 88.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 23.0%; Uruguay win 65.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.89Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds Implied ProbabilitiesExamine the 14 captured odds records to determine the market's implied probabilities and assess whether the pricing reflects a clear favorite or a tightly contested matchup.
  • Recent Defensive and Scoring TrendsAnalyze the recent match records for both teams, focusing on Uruguay's tendency for low-scoring draws and Cape Verde's contrasting results of high-scoring friendly wins versus a goalless draw against Spain.
  • World Cup Opening Match MomentumEvaluate how both teams' opening group stage draws, with Uruguay facing Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde playing Spain, might impact their tactical approach and risk tolerance in this second group fixture.

Tokens: 2846

Perspectives

Market Odds Implied ProbabilitiesHome winThe decisive evidence is the odds consensus: Uruguay at 64.9% implied probability represents a strong market favorite across 14 bookmaker samples with stable pricing and only minor movement of less than one percentage point. While Uruguay's six draws in their last ten matches and Cape Verde's resilient 0-0 draw against Spain introduce some upset risk that tempers confidence, the substantial gap between Uruguay's pricing and both the draw at 23.1% and Cape Verde at 12.1% makes the Uruguay win the62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Implied Probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 23.1%, side B win 12.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:15:27Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.68pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.46pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 3.9 / side B 7.6 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.1 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.1, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence is the odds consensus: Uruguay at 64.9% implied probability represents a strong market favorite across 14 bookmaker samples with stable pricing and only minor movement of less than one percentage point. While Uruguay's six draws in their last ten matches and Cape Verde's resilient 0-0 draw against Spain introduce some upset risk that tempers confidence, the substantial gap between Uruguay's pricing and both the draw at 23.1% and Cape Verde at 12.1% makes the Uruguay win the

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker odds records consistently price Uruguay as a clear favorite with a consensus implied win probability of 64.9% (odds around 1.44-1.48), while Cape Verde Islands sit at just 12.1% (odds 7.1-8.5). Although Uruguay's recent form is draw-heavy with six draws in ten matches including a 1-1 result against Saudi Arabia in their World Cup opener, and Cape Verde impressed with a 0-0 draw against Spain, the market shows strong conviction in a Uruguay victory with only marginal drift toward the draw and underdog since the previous update.

Recent Defensive and Scoring TrendsHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between the strong bookmaker consensus for Uruguay at 64.9% and the perspective-highlighted pattern of Uruguay's prolific low-scoring draws (7 of 10 recent matches) combined with Cape Verde's proven ability to shut out elite attacks as shown in their 0-0 against Spain. Uruguay remains the significantly stronger team on paper and the market reflects this, but their recent scoring struggles (multiple 0-0 and 1-1 results) and Cape Verde's defensive organization lower confid55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Defensive and Scoring Trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 23.1%, side B win 12.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:15:27Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.68pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.46pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 3.9 / side B 7.6 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.1 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.1, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The decisive tradeoff is between the strong bookmaker consensus for Uruguay at 64.9% and the perspective-highlighted pattern of Uruguay's prolific low-scoring draws (7 of 10 recent matches) combined with Cape Verde's proven ability to shut out elite attacks as shown in their 0-0 against Spain. Uruguay remains the significantly stronger team on paper and the market reflects this, but their recent scoring struggles (multiple 0-0 and 1-1 results) and Cape Verde's defensive organization lower confid

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus strongly favors Uruguay with a 64.9% implied win probability, reflecting the clear quality gap between the sides, though Uruguay's recent form shows 7 draws in 10 matches including low-scoring results like 0-0 against Algeria and 1-1 against Saudi Arabia and England, suggesting this could be tighter than the market implies. Cape Verde's disciplined 0-0 draw against Spain in their World Cup opener confirms their defensive resilience against stronger opposition, adding uncertainty to what would otherwise be a straightforward Uruguay pick.

World Cup Opening Match MomentumHome winBoth teams drew their opening matches, but Uruguay's 1-1 against Saudi Arabia represents a missed opportunity that should increase their risk tolerance and attacking intent in this second fixture, whereas Cape Verde's 0-0 against Spain reflects disciplined defending that they will likely replicate. The odds consensus at approximately 65% for a Uruguay win reflects the clear quality gap, and while Uruguay's tendency to draw (seven of last ten) and Cape Verde's proven defensive resilience introduc65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    World Cup Opening Match Momentum

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 23.1%, side B win 12.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:15:27Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.68pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.46pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 3.9 / side B 7.6 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.1 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.1, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Both teams drew their opening matches, but Uruguay's 1-1 against Saudi Arabia represents a missed opportunity that should increase their risk tolerance and attacking intent in this second fixture, whereas Cape Verde's 0-0 against Spain reflects disciplined defending that they will likely replicate. The odds consensus at approximately 65% for a Uruguay win reflects the clear quality gap, and while Uruguay's tendency to draw (seven of last ten) and Cape Verde's proven defensive resilience introduc

Conclusion note

Uruguay are strong favorites at roughly 1.44-1.48 odds (about 65% implied win probability) and their disappointing 1-1 opening draw against Saudi Arabia creates urgency to secure three points in this second group fixture, while Cape Verde's impressive 0-0 hold against Spain may encourage a deep defensive approach but against a materially stronger opponent. Uruguay's recent form is heavily draw-laden with seven draws in their last ten matches, which tempers confidence, yet the bookmaker consensus and the tactical pressure from dropping points against a weaker side point to Uruguay pushing harder and having the quality to break down Cape Verde's defense.

Synthesis

Uruguay enters this match as the clear favorite, backed by strong bookmaker consensus that prices them around 65 percent to win. However, their recent form is heavily characterized by low-scoring draws, including a 1-1 result against Saudi Arabia in their opener, and they have drawn seven of their last ten matches. Cape Verde Islands demonstrated significant defensive resilience by holding Spain to a 0-0 draw in their first group game, suggesting they will employ a deep, organized block against a materially stronger opponent. While Uruguay's need to secure three points after dropping points in their opener should drive attacking intent and ultimately break down the Cape Verde defense, the high frequency of stalemates in Uruguay's recent history and the underdog's proven ability to shut out elite attacks introduce notable draw risk. Consequently, Uruguay is expected to edge a tight, low-scoring contest, but the probability of a draw remains substantial.

Reasoning summary: The prediction favors Uruguay based on a strong market consensus and a clear quality gap between the two sides, alongside the tactical urgency for Uruguay to win after drawing their opener. This is tempered by Uruguay's pronounced recent tendency to play low-scoring draws and Cape Verde Islands' confirmed defensive solidity against top-tier opposition. The synthesis balances the favorite's superior squad depth and motivation against the underdog's disciplined defensive structure, resulting in a

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.88. Probability distribution: Spain win 88.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 23.0%; Uruguay win 65.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-relevance 0.50