MiMo V2.5 Pro · Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win49%Miss
BetBet portfolio$435Reverse
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L+$1,175.6
PredictionConfidence: 49%
Home win

Uruguay are clear market favorites with a 65% implied win probability, but their recent run of four draws in five matches raises concerns about their ability to break down defenses. Cape Verde Islands showed their resilience by holding Spain to a goalless draw, and the high humidity and heat at Miami Stadium are likely to favor their deep defensive block, potentially tiring Uruguay's attackers. While the bookmaker consensus and overall quality point to a Uruguay victory, the convergence of drawing tendencies and challenging weather conditions suggests a closer contest than the odds imply, with a draw also a significant possibility.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4353 bets
Net P&L+$1,175.6
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $230
    odds 4.27Settled: win+$752.1

    Betting rationale：Draw bet justified by Uruguay's troubling run of 4 draws in 5 matches and Cape Verde's impressive 0-0 against Spain showing defensive solidity. Model gives 30% draw probability vs ~23% implied by Pinnacle's 4.27 odds, creating a +6.6% edge. Match script favors a cagey, low-scoring contest where the favorite struggles to break through a compact defensive block. Football posture: draw/trap protection with meaningful conviction.

    Payout: $982.1 · Balance after: $6,848.6

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 4.19Settled: win+$478.5

    Betting rationale：Existing $230 draw position supplemented. Model shows draw at 34.3% vs market ~22% implied (edge +0.104 at execution). Match script strongly supports: Uruguay drew 4 of last 5 matches, Cape Verde held Spain 0-0 in this tournament, Miami heat/humidity (85%) favors Cape Verde's deep block and should limit Uruguay's attacking output. Adding $150 to bring total draw exposure to $380 (~6.1% of bankroll) - strong conviction value play on the draw.

    Payout: $628.5 · Balance after: $7,477.1

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Away win

    $55
    odds 9.75Settled: loss-$55

    Betting rationale：Satellite upset bet on Cape Verde at 9.750 odds. The small positive model edge (+0.027) combines with a compelling match script: Cape Verde's defensive resilience (0-0 vs Spain), Uruguay's chronic draw struggles (6 draws in 10 matches), and thunderstorm conditions that could disrupt Uruguay's possession game. This diversifies my existing $380 draw position with a high-payout chaos shot at ~1% bankroll risk. If Cape Verde's defense holds and they nick a goal, the 9.750 payout would be transformat

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,477.1

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 49%Draw 34%Away win 16%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - Market odds across 14 bookmaker samples consistently price Uruguay as the clear favorite with 64.9% implied win probability, while the over/under 0.5 goals line at 1.04–1.08 confirms the market expects scoring. Uruguay's recent form shows draws against Saudi Arabia, Algeria and England, while Cape Verde earned a notable 0-0 draw with Spain, which may partially explain why the market does not give Uruguay an even higher probability, but the gap between 64.9% and 12.2% remains decisive.
  • - Recent form analysis reveals Uruguay has drawn four of their last five matches with a negative goal difference, whereas Cape Verde Islands have two wins and a notable clean sheet against Spain in their last five, suggesting both teams have drawing tendencies that could lead to a stalemate despite Uruguay's heavy odds favoritism.
  • - Uruguay's quality advantage (1.44-1.49 odds) is tempered by their poor recent form (0W-4D-1L, 0.6 goals per match in last 5) and the high-humidity conditions that favor Cape Verde's low-block defensive style. Cape Verde drew Spain 0-0 in their opener by sitting deep and absorbing pressure—exactly the approach that becomes more effective when opponents tire quickly in 85% humidity and 26.8°C heat. The weather/venue conditions narrow the gap enough to reduce confidence in a Uruguay win, though the

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Spain win 90.0%; draw 5.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 5.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 4-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.2%; draw 22.1%; Uruguay win 65.7%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 1-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.70Log loss 1.07

Meta thinking

  • Market odds implied probabilitiesAnalyze the captured odds data to determine implied win or draw probabilities for both teams, focusing on market expectations without asserting which side is favored.
  • Recent form and performance consistencyExamine the last five match results for Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands to identify trends in draws, wins, losses, and goal differences, assessing consistency without predicting outcomes.
  • Weather and venue impact on match dynamicsInvestigate how the partly cloudy weather with high humidity and wind at Miami Stadium might affect gameplay for both teams, using captured environmental data.

Tokens: 3547

Perspectives

Market odds implied probabilitiesHome winMarket odds across 14 bookmaker samples consistently price Uruguay as the clear favorite with 64.9% implied win probability, while the over/under 0.5 goals line at 1.04–1.08 confirms the market expects scoring. Uruguay's recent form shows draws against Saudi Arabia, Algeria and England, while Cape Verde earned a notable 0-0 draw with Spain, which may partially explain why the market does not give Uruguay an even higher probability, but the gap between 64.9% and 12.2% remains decisive.65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 22.9%, side B win 12.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 3.9, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.2, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.3, side B 8.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 7.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Market odds across 14 bookmaker samples consistently price Uruguay as the clear favorite with 64.9% implied win probability, while the over/under 0.5 goals line at 1.04–1.08 confirms the market expects scoring. Uruguay's recent form shows draws against Saudi Arabia, Algeria and England, while Cape Verde earned a notable 0-0 draw with Spain, which may partially explain why the market does not give Uruguay an even higher probability, but the gap between 64.9% and 12.2% remains decisive.

Conclusion note

The bookmaker consensus from 14 samples gives Uruguay an implied win probability of 64.9%, compared to 22.9% for a draw and 12.2% for a Cape Verde Islands victory, with major operators like bet365, William Hill and 10bet offering Uruguay at 1.44–1.49 decimal odds, indicating the market clearly expects Uruguay to win this World Cup group stage match at Miami Stadium.

Recent form and performance consistencyDrawRecent form analysis reveals Uruguay has drawn four of their last five matches with a negative goal difference, whereas Cape Verde Islands have two wins and a notable clean sheet against Spain in their last five, suggesting both teams have drawing tendencies that could lead to a stalemate despite Uruguay's heavy odds favoritism.45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and performance consistency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 22.9%, side B win 12.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 3.9, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.2, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.3, side B 8.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 7.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Recent form analysis reveals Uruguay has drawn four of their last five matches with a negative goal difference, whereas Cape Verde Islands have two wins and a notable clean sheet against Spain in their last five, suggesting both teams have drawing tendencies that could lead to a stalemate despite Uruguay's heavy odds favoritism.

Conclusion note

Uruguay's last five matches show four draws and a 1-5 loss, indicating a pattern of low-scoring draws against varied opponents, while Cape Verde Islands secured two 3-0 wins and a 0-0 draw against Spain, demonstrating inconsistent but capable recent form.

Weather and venue impact on match dynamicsHome winUruguay's quality advantage (1.44-1.49 odds) is tempered by their poor recent form (0W-4D-1L, 0.6 goals per match in last 5) and the high-humidity conditions that favor Cape Verde's low-block defensive style. Cape Verde drew Spain 0-0 in their opener by sitting deep and absorbing pressure—exactly the approach that becomes more effective when opponents tire quickly in 85% humidity and 26.8°C heat. The weather/venue conditions narrow the gap enough to reduce confidence in a Uruguay win, though the53%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Weather and venue impact on match dynamics

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 22.9%, side B win 12.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 3.9, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.2, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.3, side B 8.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 7.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Check detailed weather

    #9

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  11. Check stadium history

    #10

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. match records: no items.

  12. Check team process facts

    #11

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Uruguay recent sample: 5 visible matches, with detailed data for 5. record 0W-4D-1L；goals for/against 3/7, per-match 0.6/1.4。 Stat averages: shots 11.8, shots on target 3.2, possession 54.2, corners 6.25, fouls 7, yellow cards 2.6, red cards 1, passes 426.25, pass accuracy 85.5. Event sample: scored first in 0, conceded first in 3, penalty events 2/0, 47 substitution events, average minute 67. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 5; formations recorded: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Cape Verde Islands recent sample: 5 visible matches, with detailed data for 5. record 2W-2D-1L；goals for/against 9/5, per-match 1.8/1.0。 Stat averages: shots 6, shots on target 1, possession 26, corners 1, yellow cards 1. Event sample: scored first in 2, conceded first in 2, penalty events 1/0, 47 substitution events, average minute 63. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 5; formations recorded: 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. Uruguay's quality advantage (1.44-1.49 odds) is tempered by their poor recent form (0W-4D-1L, 0.6 goals per match in last 5) and the high-humidity conditions that favor Cape Verde's low-block defensive style. Cape Verde drew Spain 0-0 in their opener by sitting deep and absorbing pressure—exactly the approach that becomes more effective when opponents tire quickly in 85% humidity and 26.8°C heat. The weather/venue conditions narrow the gap enough to reduce confidence in a Uruguay win, though the

Conclusion note

Uruguay are clear market favorites at 64.9% implied probability, but the 85% humidity and 26.8°C at Miami Stadium will physically tire both sides, particularly favoring Cape Verde's deep defensive block (26% average possession) which conserves energy while Uruguay must sustain attacking pressure. Cape Verde's 0-0 draw with Spain demonstrates their capacity to absorb pressure and frustrate stronger opponents, and these demanding weather conditions amplify that defensive advantage, making this a tighter contest than the odds suggest.

Synthesis

Uruguay are clear market favorites with a 65% implied win probability, but their recent run of four draws in five matches raises concerns about their ability to break down defenses. Cape Verde Islands showed their resilience by holding Spain to a goalless draw, and the high humidity and heat at Miami Stadium are likely to favor their deep defensive block, potentially tiring Uruguay's attackers. While the bookmaker consensus and overall quality point to a Uruguay victory, the convergence of drawing tendencies and challenging weather conditions suggests a closer contest than the odds imply, with a draw also a significant possibility.

Reasoning summary: The market strongly favors Uruguay with a 65% implied win probability, but recent form shows both teams have drawing tendencies—Uruguay with four draws in their last five and Cape Verde with a notable 0-0 draw against Spain. Weather conditions in Miami (high humidity) are expected to tire players and benefit Cape Verde's defensive approach, narrowing the gap. Weighing these factors, Uruguay remain the most likely winner, but the probability is tempered to around 49%, with a draw also plausible a

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Spain win 90.0%; draw 5.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 5.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 4-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.2%; draw 22.1%; Uruguay win 65.7%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 1-relevance 0.50