GLM-5.1 · Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win56%Miss
BetBet portfolio$580Reverse
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L+$1,489.1
PredictionConfidence: 56%
Home win

Uruguay remain the most likely winner based on underlying quality and strong market consensus at 66.7% implied probability, but confidence is meaningfully reduced by their five-match winless run including a 1-5 defeat to USA and only three goals scored. Cape Verde Islands showed genuine competitiveness by holding Spain to a goalless draw in this World Cup, which elevates draw risk well above the market's 22.4% estimate. Uruguay's persistent draw tendency across recent matches and Cape Verde's demonstrated defensive resilience against elite opposition make the draw a substantial secondary outcome, while Cape Verde's outright win remains unlikely despite their spirited World Cup showing.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5803 bets
Net P&L+$1,489.1
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $330
    odds 4.27Settled: win+$1,079.1

    Betting rationale：Draw trap posture. Uruguay have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches including a 1-1 WC opener vs Saudi Arabia, revealing a chronic inability to convert possession into goals. Cape Verde just held Spain to 0-0 in their WC opener—confirmed defensive resilience at this level. The neutral Miami venue strips Uruguay of any real home advantage despite the schedule listing. Model assigns 30% draw probability vs Pinnacle's implied ~23.4%, giving a +0.066 execution edge—the only positive edge on the board. U

    Payout: $1,409.1 · Balance after: $9,761.6

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 4.40Settled: win+$510

    Betting rationale：Adding to existing draw position. Uruguay are winless in five matches (4 draws, 1-5 loss to USA) with only 3 goals scored — a chronic draw tendency. Cape Verde held Spain 0-0 in this World Cup, proving genuine defensive resilience against elite teams. Thunderstorms in Miami add chaos: disrupted rhythm, slippery surface, unpredictable set-piece moments favoring compact defending. Model gives draw 28% vs market ~22.7%, yielding +0.053 edge at execution 4.400. Execution odds are slightly worse than

    Payout: $660 · Balance after: $10,421.6

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $100
    odds 7.98Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset satellite alongside existing draw position. Uruguay haven't won in 5 matches (3 goals total, 6/10 recent draws), while Cape Verde held Spain 0-0 in their opener—proving defensive steel at this level. Miami humidity (85%) and wind (19.4 km/h) sap pressing stamina and favor a compact, resilient underdog. Model gives Cape Verde 14% vs execution implied 12.5% (edge +0.015), and at 7.980 the payout asymmetry is real. Portfolio logic: draw position covers the stalemate scenario; this

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,761.6

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 56%Draw 28%Away win 16%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #20-0
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - The 14 captured odds observations converge tightly around Uruguay as the dominant favorite (1.39–1.44 range across four leading bookmakers), with implied win probability rising slightly to 66.7% and shortening odds confirming market confidence. Cape Verde Islands are consistently priced at 8.0–9.4, reflecting a low 11% win probability. However, Uruguay's recent form—six draws in ten matches—introduces meaningful draw risk that the 22.4% market draw probability acknowledges. The odds convergence
  • - From a recent-form standpoint, Cape Verde Islands hold a numerical edge with two wins and nine goals over their last five compared to Uruguay's zero wins and three goals. However, Uruguay's draws came against stronger opposition such as England and Saudi Arabia at the World Cup, whereas Cape Verde's victories were against weaker sides in friendlies. The odds market maintains a substantial Uruguay-favourite consensus (66.7%), suggesting the quality differential outweighs the form differential. Ur
  • - The contrarian form angle is supported by visible evidence: Uruguay's five-match winless streak including a heavy 1-5 loss, and Cape Verde's 0-0 World Cup draw with Spain, point toward a closer contest than the ~67% implied Uruguay win probability suggests. However, Uruguay remain a historically stronger side, Cape Verde's wins came against weaker opposition, and no lineup or head-to-head data is available, so confidence is tempered and the draw is chosen as the most defensible contrarian outcom

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 2-0 C
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 22.0%; Uruguay win 66.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.86Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • market oddsInvestigate the 14 captured pre-match odds observations to understand how the market prices each side and the implied probabilities, checking whether odds converge or show variance across sources.
  • recent form comparisonCompare Uruguay's five visible recent matches (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss; 3 goals scored, 7 conceded) with Cape Verde's five visible recent matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 9 scored, 5 conceded) to assess which side shows stronger current competitive rhythm.
  • evidence-based contrarian form angleUruguay have no wins in their last five matches, including a 1-5 loss to USA, while Cape Verde drew Spain 0-0 in this World Cup and won two friendlies 3-0. Examine whether Cape Verde's recent competitiveness against strong opposition suggests a closer contest than typical assumptions might imply.

Tokens: 2329

Perspectives

market oddsHome winThe 14 captured odds observations converge tightly around Uruguay as the dominant favorite (1.39–1.44 range across four leading bookmakers), with implied win probability rising slightly to 66.7% and shortening odds confirming market confidence. Cape Verde Islands are consistently priced at 8.0–9.4, reflecting a low 11% win probability. However, Uruguay's recent form—six draws in ten matches—introduces meaningful draw risk that the 22.4% market draw probability acknowledges. The odds convergence65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.7%, draw 22.4%, side B win 11%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.89pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.57pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4.1 / side B 7 → side A 1.39 / draw 4.3 / side B 8.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.39, draw 4.3, side B 8.75; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.33, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.4, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 31; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The 14 captured odds observations converge tightly around Uruguay as the dominant favorite (1.39–1.44 range across four leading bookmakers), with implied win probability rising slightly to 66.7% and shortening odds confirming market confidence. Cape Verde Islands are consistently priced at 8.0–9.4, reflecting a low 11% win probability. However, Uruguay's recent form—six draws in ten matches—introduces meaningful draw risk that the 22.4% market draw probability acknowledges. The odds convergence

Conclusion note

Across 14 bookmaker samples, Uruguay is priced as a strong favorite with converged implied win probability of 66.7%, while Cape Verde Islands sit at 11% and the draw at 22.4%, with odds shortening slightly on Uruguay in recent movement. Uruguay's recent form shows a draw-heavy pattern (six draws in ten matches), which adds uncertainty despite the clear market consensus favoring them.

recent form comparisonHome winFrom a recent-form standpoint, Cape Verde Islands hold a numerical edge with two wins and nine goals over their last five compared to Uruguay's zero wins and three goals. However, Uruguay's draws came against stronger opposition such as England and Saudi Arabia at the World Cup, whereas Cape Verde's victories were against weaker sides in friendlies. The odds market maintains a substantial Uruguay-favourite consensus (66.7%), suggesting the quality differential outweighs the form differential. Ur58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.7%, draw 22.4%, side B win 11%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.89pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.57pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4.1 / side B 7 → side A 1.39 / draw 4.3 / side B 8.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.39, draw 4.3, side B 8.75; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.33, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.4, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 31; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. From a recent-form standpoint, Cape Verde Islands hold a numerical edge with two wins and nine goals over their last five compared to Uruguay's zero wins and three goals. However, Uruguay's draws came against stronger opposition such as England and Saudi Arabia at the World Cup, whereas Cape Verde's victories were against weaker sides in friendlies. The odds market maintains a substantial Uruguay-favourite consensus (66.7%), suggesting the quality differential outweighs the form differential. Ur

Conclusion note

Uruguay have not won any of their last five matches (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 3 goals scored, 7 conceded), while Cape Verde Islands show a numerically stronger recent record (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 9 scored, 5 conceded), though Cape Verde's wins came against Bermuda and Serbia in friendlies rather than top-tier opposition. The bookmaker consensus still implies a 66.7% probability for Uruguay, reflecting an underlying quality gap despite Uruguay's sluggish form.

evidence-based contrarian form angleDrawThe contrarian form angle is supported by visible evidence: Uruguay's five-match winless streak including a heavy 1-5 loss, and Cape Verde's 0-0 World Cup draw with Spain, point toward a closer contest than the ~67% implied Uruguay win probability suggests. However, Uruguay remain a historically stronger side, Cape Verde's wins came against weaker opposition, and no lineup or head-to-head data is available, so confidence is tempered and the draw is chosen as the most defensible contrarian outcom38%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    evidence-based contrarian form angle

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.7%, draw 22.4%, side B win 11%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.89pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.57pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4.1 / side B 7 → side A 1.39 / draw 4.3 / side B 8.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.39, draw 4.3, side B 8.75; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.33, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.4, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 31; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The contrarian form angle is supported by visible evidence: Uruguay's five-match winless streak including a heavy 1-5 loss, and Cape Verde's 0-0 World Cup draw with Spain, point toward a closer contest than the ~67% implied Uruguay win probability suggests. However, Uruguay remain a historically stronger side, Cape Verde's wins came against weaker opposition, and no lineup or head-to-head data is available, so confidence is tempered and the draw is chosen as the most defensible contrarian outcom

Conclusion note

Uruguay have zero wins in their last five matches, including a 1-5 defeat to USA and four consecutive draws, while Cape Verde Islands held Spain to a 0-0 draw in this World Cup and won two friendlies 3-0, suggesting Uruguay's attack may struggle against a resilient Cape Verde side despite the 66.7% bookmaker consensus favouring Uruguay.

Synthesis

Uruguay remain the most likely winner based on underlying quality and strong market consensus at 66.7% implied probability, but confidence is meaningfully reduced by their five-match winless run including a 1-5 defeat to USA and only three goals scored. Cape Verde Islands showed genuine competitiveness by holding Spain to a goalless draw in this World Cup, which elevates draw risk well above the market's 22.4% estimate. Uruguay's persistent draw tendency across recent matches and Cape Verde's demonstrated defensive resilience against elite opposition make the draw a substantial secondary outcome, while Cape Verde's outright win remains unlikely despite their spirited World Cup showing.

Reasoning summary: Two of three perspectives pick Uruguay as the winner, supported by a converged 66.7% market-implied probability and a clear underlying quality gap despite recent form struggles. The contrarian perspective highlights Uruguay's five-match winless streak and Cape Verde Islands' competitive 0-0 draw with Spain in this World Cup as evidence that the contest may be closer than odds suggest. The synthesis retains Uruguay as the pick but lowers confidence from the market level to reflect genuine draw ri

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 2-0 Crelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 22.0%; Uruguay win 66.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-relevance 0.50