GLM-5.1 · Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win55%Miss
BetBet portfolio$580Reverse
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L+$1,489.1
PredictionConfidence: 55%
Home win

Uruguay remain the most likely winners at roughly 55 percent, but their persistent draw pattern—four draws in five recent matches including a 1-1 World Cup opener against Saudi Arabia—combined with Cape Verde Islands' confirmed defensive resilience in holding Spain to a 0-0 draw elevates the draw probability to around 30 percent, well above the market consensus of 23 percent. The neutral Miami venue removes any home advantage Uruguay's schedule listing might suggest. Cape Verde's losses to Chile and Tunisia show they can be breached, so a narrow Uruguay win remains the base case, yet the draw risk is substantial enough to temper confidence.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5803 bets
Net P&L+$1,489.1
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $330
    odds 4.27Settled: win+$1,079.1

    Betting rationale：Draw trap posture. Uruguay have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches including a 1-1 WC opener vs Saudi Arabia, revealing a chronic inability to convert possession into goals. Cape Verde just held Spain to 0-0 in their WC opener—confirmed defensive resilience at this level. The neutral Miami venue strips Uruguay of any real home advantage despite the schedule listing. Model assigns 30% draw probability vs Pinnacle's implied ~23.4%, giving a +0.066 execution edge—the only positive edge on the board. U

    Payout: $1,409.1 · Balance after: $9,761.6

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 4.40Settled: win+$510

    Betting rationale：Adding to existing draw position. Uruguay are winless in five matches (4 draws, 1-5 loss to USA) with only 3 goals scored — a chronic draw tendency. Cape Verde held Spain 0-0 in this World Cup, proving genuine defensive resilience against elite teams. Thunderstorms in Miami add chaos: disrupted rhythm, slippery surface, unpredictable set-piece moments favoring compact defending. Model gives draw 28% vs market ~22.7%, yielding +0.053 edge at execution 4.400. Execution odds are slightly worse than

    Payout: $660 · Balance after: $10,421.6

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $100
    odds 7.98Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Contrarian upset satellite alongside existing draw position. Uruguay haven't won in 5 matches (3 goals total, 6/10 recent draws), while Cape Verde held Spain 0-0 in their opener—proving defensive steel at this level. Miami humidity (85%) and wind (19.4 km/h) sap pressing stamina and favor a compact, resilient underdog. Model gives Cape Verde 14% vs execution implied 12.5% (edge +0.015), and at 7.980 the payout asymmetry is real. Portfolio logic: draw position covers the stalemate scenario; this

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,761.6

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 55%Draw 30%Away win 15%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #20-0
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - The market assigns Uruguay roughly a two-thirds win probability at 64.9%, well below the 75-80% range typical of overwhelming mismatches, and the recent odds drift slightly away from Uruguay while draw and Cape Verde probabilities creep upward. The draw implied probability sits at 23.1%, unusually high for such a perceived quality gap, and the bookmaker spread on Cape Verde odds (7.1 to 8.5) shows disagreement on the underdog's chances. Uruguay remains the most likely winner, but the market posi
  • - Uruguay's persistent draw pattern—four draws in five recent matches, all away, including against comparably ranked Saudi Arabia—suggests a recurring difficulty converting superiority into wins rather than a purely situational artifact. Cape Verde Islands' 0-0 with Spain confirms they can organize defensively against quality opponents. The neutral Miami venue negates any home advantage Uruguay's schedule listing might imply. While bookmaker consensus assigns Uruguay roughly 65% win probability, U
  • - The perspective premise is supported: Cape Verde's 0-0 against Spain and two 3-0 friendly wins confirm a structured, capable side, and Uruguay's six draws in ten recent matches suggest they often fail to convert superiority into wins. However, Cape Verde also conceded four against Chile and lost to Tunisia, showing vulnerability against decent opposition. The market still strongly favours Uruguay at roughly 65% implied probability with slight drift toward the draw and Cape Verde, so Uruguay winn

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 2-0 C
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 22.0%; Uruguay win 66.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.82Log loss 1.20

Meta thinking

  • market odds implied positioningAnalyze the 14 captured pre-match odds to extract implied probabilities and spread, checking whether the market assigns Uruguay an overwhelming advantage or shows meaningful uncertainty that could signal a tighter contest than the quality gap suggests.
  • Uruguay persistent draw tendencyUruguay has drawn four of their last five matches, including their World Cup opener against Saudi Arabia, with no wins in that span. Investigate whether this draw-heavy pattern, all recorded away, is a recurring stylistic trait or situational artifact, and how it may interact with facing a defensively organized opponent.
  • Cape Verde defensive resilience signalCape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw in their World Cup group opener, a notable defensive result against elite opposition. Check whether this evidence of compact defending, combined with two 3-0 friendly wins, suggests a capable and structured side that could frustrate Uruguay rather than being a straightforward mismatch.

Tokens: 2580

Perspectives

market odds implied positioningHome winThe market assigns Uruguay roughly a two-thirds win probability at 64.9%, well below the 75-80% range typical of overwhelming mismatches, and the recent odds drift slightly away from Uruguay while draw and Cape Verde probabilities creep upward. The draw implied probability sits at 23.1%, unusually high for such a perceived quality gap, and the bookmaker spread on Cape Verde odds (7.1 to 8.5) shows disagreement on the underdog's chances. Uruguay remains the most likely winner, but the market posi62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds implied positioning

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 23.1%, side B win 12.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:15:27Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.68pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.46pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 3.9 / side B 7.6 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.1 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.1, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The market assigns Uruguay roughly a two-thirds win probability at 64.9%, well below the 75-80% range typical of overwhelming mismatches, and the recent odds drift slightly away from Uruguay while draw and Cape Verde probabilities creep upward. The draw implied probability sits at 23.1%, unusually high for such a perceived quality gap, and the bookmaker spread on Cape Verde odds (7.1 to 8.5) shows disagreement on the underdog's chances. Uruguay remains the most likely winner, but the market posi

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker odds assign Uruguay a consensus implied win probability of 64.9%, which is strong but not overwhelming for a team of Uruguay's quality facing Cape Verde Islands, and the slight movement away from Uruguay (-0.68pp) toward draw (+0.22pp) and Cape Verde (+0.46pp) across eight update points signals meaningful market uncertainty rather than consolidating dominance. Uruguay's recent form of six draws in ten matches and a 1-1 World Cup opener against Saudi Arabia reinforces the chance of a tighter contest than the quality gap alone would suggest.

Uruguay persistent draw tendencyDrawUruguay's persistent draw pattern—four draws in five recent matches, all away, including against comparably ranked Saudi Arabia—suggests a recurring difficulty converting superiority into wins rather than a purely situational artifact. Cape Verde Islands' 0-0 with Spain confirms they can organize defensively against quality opponents. The neutral Miami venue negates any home advantage Uruguay's schedule listing might imply. While bookmaker consensus assigns Uruguay roughly 65% win probability, U35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Uruguay persistent draw tendency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 23.1%, side B win 12.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:15:27Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.68pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.46pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 3.9 / side B 7.6 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.1 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.1, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. Uruguay's persistent draw pattern—four draws in five recent matches, all away, including against comparably ranked Saudi Arabia—suggests a recurring difficulty converting superiority into wins rather than a purely situational artifact. Cape Verde Islands' 0-0 with Spain confirms they can organize defensively against quality opponents. The neutral Miami venue negates any home advantage Uruguay's schedule listing might imply. While bookmaker consensus assigns Uruguay roughly 65% win probability, U

Conclusion note

Uruguay have drawn four of their last five matches, including a 1-1 World Cup opener against Saudi Arabia, with no wins in that span, and five draws total across their last ten results; Cape Verde Islands held Spain to a 0-0 draw in their own World Cup opener, demonstrating defensive organization against stronger opposition, and this match is played at a neutral Miami venue where Uruguay's schedule-listed home label carries no true home advantage.

Cape Verde defensive resilience signalHome winThe perspective premise is supported: Cape Verde's 0-0 against Spain and two 3-0 friendly wins confirm a structured, capable side, and Uruguay's six draws in ten recent matches suggest they often fail to convert superiority into wins. However, Cape Verde also conceded four against Chile and lost to Tunisia, showing vulnerability against decent opposition. The market still strongly favours Uruguay at roughly 65% implied probability with slight drift toward the draw and Cape Verde, so Uruguay winn55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Cape Verde defensive resilience signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 23.1%, side B win 12.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T16:15:27Z -> 2026-06-20T20:06:24Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.68pp, draw +0.22pp, side B win +0.46pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 3.9 / side B 7.6 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.1 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.1, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.48, draw 4.2, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The perspective premise is supported: Cape Verde's 0-0 against Spain and two 3-0 friendly wins confirm a structured, capable side, and Uruguay's six draws in ten recent matches suggest they often fail to convert superiority into wins. However, Cape Verde also conceded four against Chile and lost to Tunisia, showing vulnerability against decent opposition. The market still strongly favours Uruguay at roughly 65% implied probability with slight drift toward the draw and Cape Verde, so Uruguay winn

Conclusion note

Uruguay are favourites at about 65% implied probability, but Cape Verde's 0-0 draw against Spain in their World Cup opener demonstrates genuine defensive resilience against elite opposition, and Uruguay themselves drew six of their last ten matches including a 1-1 World Cup opener against Saudi Arabia, so the visitors could frustrate Uruguay enough to make this closer than the odds suggest. No injuries or suspensions are reported for either side, and head-to-head and weather data are unavailable, adding uncertainty.

Synthesis

Uruguay remain the most likely winners at roughly 55 percent, but their persistent draw pattern—four draws in five recent matches including a 1-1 World Cup opener against Saudi Arabia—combined with Cape Verde Islands' confirmed defensive resilience in holding Spain to a 0-0 draw elevates the draw probability to around 30 percent, well above the market consensus of 23 percent. The neutral Miami venue removes any home advantage Uruguay's schedule listing might suggest. Cape Verde's losses to Chile and Tunisia show they can be breached, so a narrow Uruguay win remains the base case, yet the draw risk is substantial enough to temper confidence.

Reasoning summary: Uruguay are favored by market consensus at approximately 65 percent, but two of three perspectives highlight draw risk: Uruguay's persistent draw tendency across recent matches and Cape Verde Islands' demonstrated ability to hold Spain to a 0-0 draw at this World Cup. The neutral Miami venue negates Uruguay's nominal home label. Cape Verde's losses to Chile and Tunisia temper the resilience argument. Weighing the quality gap against Uruguay's conversion struggles and Cape Verde's defensive capab

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 2-0 Crelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 8.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 22.0%; Uruguay win 66.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-relevance 0.50