Gemini 3.1 Pro · Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands
Gemini
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win62%Miss
BetDraw$400Reverse
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L+$1,327.5
PredictionConfidence: 62%
Home win

Although Uruguay enters this match on an extended winless run, including a frustrating 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia, they remain heavily favored by bookmakers. Cape Verde showcased exceptional defensive organization in their recent 0-0 stalemate with Spain, proving they can frustrate top-tier opposition. Uruguay's overall squad quality should eventually be enough to break down Cape Verde's stubborn defensive block, but a tight, low-scoring affair is highly likely given the South Americans' recent struggles in the final third.

Bet
Draw$4002 bets
Net P&L+$1,327.5
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $250
    odds 4.27Settled: win+$817.5

    Betting rationale：Uruguay are heavy favorites but have struggled immensely to find the net, drawing four of their last five matches. Cape Verde just pulled off a masterclass in defensive resilience to hold Spain to a 0-0 draw in their opener. With Uruguay's attack looking blunt against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde highly motivated to sit deep and protect a valuable point, the draw at 4.270 offers a compelling +4.6% edge. We will back the underdog's compact block to frustrate the South Americans for another low-sco

    Payout: $1,067.5 · Balance after: $12,499.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 4.40Settled: win+$510

    Betting rationale：Uruguay has drawn four of their last five matches, struggling significantly in the final third, including a 1-1 opener against Saudi Arabia. Cape Verde showcased remarkable defensive organization by holding Spain to a 0-0 draw. The model highlights a solid 27% probability for a draw, and with execution odds drifting up to 4.400 (yielding a +4.3% positive edge), the script of a frustrated Uruguayan side failing to break down a compact defensive block is highly plausible. Adding a secondary stake

    Payout: $660 · Balance after: $13,159.3

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 62%Draw 27%Away win 11%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - The momentum perspective highlights Cape Verde's defensive resilience and recent victories against quality opposition, contrasting sharply with Uruguay's extended winless run and offensive struggles. Although odds strongly favor a Uruguay win, Cape Verde's proven ability to frustrate top-tier teams points to a potential draw.
  • - The betting market explicitly favors Uruguay with a significant 67% implied win probability and supportive odds movement, heavily discounting Cape Verde's strong recent results and Uruguay's recent string of draws.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 9.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 C
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.88. Probability distribution: Spain win 88.0%; draw 9.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 23.0%; Uruguay win 65.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-2 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.93Log loss 1.31

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form and Tournament MomentumAnalyze the contrast in recent performances, particularly Cape Verde's surprising 0-0 draw against Spain and consecutive friendly wins, compared to Uruguay's five-match winless streak including a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia.
  • Market Odds and Implied ProbabilityExamine the captured odds to evaluate how the betting market prices the matchup, focusing on whether bookmakers strongly favor Uruguay despite their poor recent form or if they respect Cape Verde's recent solid performances.

Tokens: 2431

Perspectives

Recent Form and Tournament MomentumDrawThe momentum perspective highlights Cape Verde's defensive resilience and recent victories against quality opposition, contrasting sharply with Uruguay's extended winless run and offensive struggles. Although odds strongly favor a Uruguay win, Cape Verde's proven ability to frustrate top-tier teams points to a potential draw.35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Tournament Momentum

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.7%, draw 22.4%, side B win 11%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.89pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.57pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4.1 / side B 7 → side A 1.39 / draw 4.3 / side B 8.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.39, draw 4.3, side B 8.75; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.33, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.4, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 31; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The momentum perspective highlights Cape Verde's defensive resilience and recent victories against quality opposition, contrasting sharply with Uruguay's extended winless run and offensive struggles. Although odds strongly favor a Uruguay win, Cape Verde's proven ability to frustrate top-tier teams points to a potential draw.

Conclusion note

Uruguay enters this match on a five-game winless streak, recently struggling to break down Saudi Arabia in a 1-1 opening draw. Meanwhile, Cape Verde carries strong tournament momentum following a highly impressive 0-0 defensive stand against Spain, suggesting they have the organization to force another stalemate despite bookmakers heavily favoring the South Americans.

Market Odds and Implied ProbabilityHome winThe betting market explicitly favors Uruguay with a significant 67% implied win probability and supportive odds movement, heavily discounting Cape Verde's strong recent results and Uruguay's recent string of draws.66%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds and Implied Probability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.7%, draw 22.4%, side B win 11%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T18:00:22Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.89pp, draw -0.33pp, side B win -0.57pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4.1 / side B 7 → side A 1.39 / draw 4.3 / side B 8.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4 / side B 8; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.33 / side B 8.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.39, draw 4.3, side B 8.75; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4, side B 8; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.33, side B 8.5; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.4, side B 9.4. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 31; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 46; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; correct scores 0-0 7.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The betting market explicitly favors Uruguay with a significant 67% implied win probability and supportive odds movement, heavily discounting Cape Verde's strong recent results and Uruguay's recent string of draws.

Conclusion note

Despite Cape Verde's impressive recent form, which includes a notable 0-0 draw against Spain and consecutive 3-0 victories, the betting market heavily favors Uruguay. Bookmakers currently assign Uruguay an implied win probability of roughly 67%, and recent market movements have further shortened their odds, indicating strong and solidifying confidence in the South American side.

Synthesis

Although Uruguay enters this match on an extended winless run, including a frustrating 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia, they remain heavily favored by bookmakers. Cape Verde showcased exceptional defensive organization in their recent 0-0 stalemate with Spain, proving they can frustrate top-tier opposition. Uruguay's overall squad quality should eventually be enough to break down Cape Verde's stubborn defensive block, but a tight, low-scoring affair is highly likely given the South Americans' recent struggles in the final third.

Reasoning summary: The prediction relies on market confidence, which strongly favors a Uruguay victory with an implied probability of around 67%. Form analysis highlights a significant risk, as Uruguay is on a five-match winless streak while Cape Verde recently held Spain to a goalless draw and secured consecutive victories. Ultimately, Uruguay's underlying quality gives them the edge, but Cape Verde's disciplined defensive approach makes a narrow margin or a draw plausible alternatives.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 9.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 Crelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.88. Probability distribution: Spain win 88.0%; draw 9.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 12.0%; draw 23.0%; Uruguay win 65.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-2 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-relevance 0.50