Claude Opus 4.8 · Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win60%Miss
BetDraw$345Reverse
Post-match result2-2
Net P&L+$1,129.45
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Home win

Uruguay are firmly favored over Cape Verde Islands at this neutral Miami venue, with a stable bookmaker consensus implying about 64.9% for a Uruguay win against just 12.2% for Cape Verde and 22.9% for the draw, and no injuries or suspensions reported for either side. The decisive tradeoff is the strong, agreed market lean toward Uruguay versus their draw-heavy, low-scoring recent form and Cape Verde's resilience shown in a goalless draw with Spain; as a hypothesis Uruguay may need patience to break a compact opponent, so a tight margin or even a stalemate is a realistic scenario, which keeps confidence moderate.

Bet
Draw$3453 bets
Net P&L+$1,129.45
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $130
    odds 4.19Settled: win+$414.7

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw-trap protection, adding to an existing draw position. Match script: Uruguay are heavy favorites but their recent form is draw-heavy and low-scoring (four draws in five, several 0-0/1-1), while Cape Verde just held Spain to a goalless draw and showed real defensive resilience. A compact opponent plus Uruguay needing patience to break them is a classic stalemate setup. The model gives the draw 25% and execution prices it at 4.19 (pinnacle), a small positive edge (+0.011 vs execution,

    Payout: $544.7 · Balance after: $9,216.85

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $125
    odds 4.27Settled: win+$408.75

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw-trap protection with a contrarian satellite stake. Match script: Uruguay's last five are relentlessly draw-heavy (four draws, defensively cautious, including a World Cup 1-1 opener vs Saudi Arabia), while Cape Verde just held Spain scoreless and arrive in confident form. That is a classic stubborn-underdog vs patient-favorite setup where a narrow or stalemate result is live. The favorite price (pinnacle 1.45, ~-0.06 edge) is unplayable for value; the only positive executable edge i

    Payout: $533.75 · Balance after: $8,672.15

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $90
    odds 4.40Settled: win+$306

    Betting rationale：Draw-trap posture, adding modestly to my existing draw exposure. The match script is alive: Uruguay have drawn four of their last five (1-1 with Saudi Arabia, 0-0s with Algeria/Mexico), while Cape Verde just frustrated Spain to a 0-0 and have shown defensive discipline. The model still rates the draw at 0.260, and execution price 4.40 gives a small positive edge (+0.033) versus a Uruguay favorite line near 1.44 that offers no value (-0.064). Top score 1-1 also appears in the model's top three. S

    Payout: $396 · Balance after: $9,612.85

Post-match result2-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 60%Draw 25%Away win 15%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - The 14 bookmaker entries are tightly clustered with Uruguay priced around 1.44-1.49, draw near 3.9-4.3 and Cape Verde out at 7.0-8.2, giving a consensus of roughly 64.9% Uruguay, 22.9% draw and only 12.2% Cape Verde, with no meaningful movement across the visible update points. That strong, agreed market lean toward the schedule-listed home side is the decisive signal, and the over-0.5-goals price near 1.04-1.08 supports expecting Uruguay to score; the main counterweight is Uruguay's run of draw
  • - The bookmaker consensus is firmly behind Uruguay at roughly 64.9% implied probability versus only 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the favorite priced around 1.44-1.49 and stable across 14 samples. On recent form Uruguay has been hard to beat but draw-heavy and low-scoring (a 1-1 World Cup draw with Saudi Arabia plus goalless and 1-1 friendly draws), while Cape Verde Islands earned a creditable goalless draw against Spain and scored freely against Bermuda and Serbia, though those wins came in
  • - The bookmaker consensus across 14 samples strongly favors Uruguay at roughly 64.9% implied probability versus 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the draw near 22.9%, and representative lines such as William Hill at 1.44 and bet365 at 1.44 are consistent and stable at the single visible latest update time, so no market movement can be inferred. Both squads report zero injuries and no suspensions, but lineups returned no rows, which limits squad-level reads and justifies moderating confidence rath

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 5.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 8.5%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 2-0
  • - Recall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 13.0%; draw 23.0%; Uruguay win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.95Log loss 1.39

Meta thinking

  • Market odds distributionExamine the 14 captured odds entries to compare implied probabilities across home win, draw and away win, and check spread or agreement among bookmakers for this fixture.
  • Recent form and goal outputCompare both teams' last 5 results: Uruguay's run of draws (including World Cup vs Saudi Arabia) versus Cape Verde's mix of friendly wins, a goalless draw vs Spain, and a loss to Chile; weigh competition quality and scoring patterns.
  • Lineup availability and match conditionsConfirm both sides report zero injuries and that lineups returned no rows; assess how absence of confirmed starting lineups limits squad-level reads and whether weather (85% humidity, 19.4km/h wind, 26.8°C at Miami Stadium) could affect play.

Tokens: 328

Perspectives

Market odds distributionHome winThe 14 bookmaker entries are tightly clustered with Uruguay priced around 1.44-1.49, draw near 3.9-4.3 and Cape Verde out at 7.0-8.2, giving a consensus of roughly 64.9% Uruguay, 22.9% draw and only 12.2% Cape Verde, with no meaningful movement across the visible update points. That strong, agreed market lean toward the schedule-listed home side is the decisive signal, and the over-0.5-goals price near 1.04-1.08 supports expecting Uruguay to score; the main counterweight is Uruguay's run of draw63%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds distribution

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 22.9%, side B win 12.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 3.9, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.2, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.3, side B 8.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 7.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The 14 bookmaker entries are tightly clustered with Uruguay priced around 1.44-1.49, draw near 3.9-4.3 and Cape Verde out at 7.0-8.2, giving a consensus of roughly 64.9% Uruguay, 22.9% draw and only 12.2% Cape Verde, with no meaningful movement across the visible update points. That strong, agreed market lean toward the schedule-listed home side is the decisive signal, and the over-0.5-goals price near 1.04-1.08 supports expecting Uruguay to score; the main counterweight is Uruguay's run of draw

Conclusion note

Bookmakers agree firmly on Uruguay against Cape Verde Islands, with side A priced around 1.44-1.49 for an implied 64.9% home win versus just 12.2% for Cape Verde, and no consensus movement across the captured updates. Confidence is tempered because Uruguay have drawn most of their recent matches and Cape Verde held Spain 0-0, with no head-to-head data available.

Recent form and goal outputHome winThe bookmaker consensus is firmly behind Uruguay at roughly 64.9% implied probability versus only 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the favorite priced around 1.44-1.49 and stable across 14 samples. On recent form Uruguay has been hard to beat but draw-heavy and low-scoring (a 1-1 World Cup draw with Saudi Arabia plus goalless and 1-1 friendly draws), while Cape Verde Islands earned a creditable goalless draw against Spain and scored freely against Bermuda and Serbia, though those wins came in60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and goal output

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 22.9%, side B win 12.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 3.9, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.2, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.3, side B 8.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 7.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The bookmaker consensus is firmly behind Uruguay at roughly 64.9% implied probability versus only 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the favorite priced around 1.44-1.49 and stable across 14 samples. On recent form Uruguay has been hard to beat but draw-heavy and low-scoring (a 1-1 World Cup draw with Saudi Arabia plus goalless and 1-1 friendly draws), while Cape Verde Islands earned a creditable goalless draw against Spain and scored freely against Bermuda and Serbia, though those wins came in

Conclusion note

Uruguay is a strong favorite at home in Miami, with bookmaker consensus implying about 64.9% for a Uruguay win against just 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands and odds clustered near 1.44-1.49. Uruguay's recent run is draw-laden and low-scoring while Cape Verde Islands has shown attacking form in friendlies and a solid goalless draw with Spain, so a draw is a live alternative, but the market and overall quality point to Uruguay.

Lineup availability and match conditionsHome winThe bookmaker consensus across 14 samples strongly favors Uruguay at roughly 64.9% implied probability versus 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the draw near 22.9%, and representative lines such as William Hill at 1.44 and bet365 at 1.44 are consistent and stable at the single visible latest update time, so no market movement can be inferred. Both squads report zero injuries and no suspensions, but lineups returned no rows, which limits squad-level reads and justifies moderating confidence rath63%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Lineup availability and match conditions

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: URU vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T22:00:00Z. Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, altitude 2 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T22:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Uruguay: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Uruguay: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 11, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.9%, draw 22.9%, side B win 12.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1 → side A 1.47 / draw 4 / side B 7.1; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 3.9 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.2 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.47, draw 4, side B 7.1; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 3.9, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.44, draw 4.2, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.3, side B 8.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 7.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:29Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 26.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 85%, wind 19.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Uruguay:

    • 2026-06-15T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Algeria, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-13T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T12:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Dominican Republic, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-01T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-07-11T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Spain, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  10. The bookmaker consensus across 14 samples strongly favors Uruguay at roughly 64.9% implied probability versus 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the draw near 22.9%, and representative lines such as William Hill at 1.44 and bet365 at 1.44 are consistent and stable at the single visible latest update time, so no market movement can be inferred. Both squads report zero injuries and no suspensions, but lineups returned no rows, which limits squad-level reads and justifies moderating confidence rath

Conclusion note

Uruguay is priced as a heavy favorite over Cape Verde Islands, with bookmaker consensus implying about 64.9% for a Uruguay win against only 12.2% for Cape Verde and 22.9% for the draw, and tight stable home lines such as 1.44 at both William Hill and bet365. Both teams report no injuries or suspensions, but confirmed starting lineups returned no rows so the squad-level read is limited, while the warm and humid Miami weather (26.8C, 85% humidity, 19.4 km/h wind, no rain) is not extreme enough to shift the clear market lean toward Uruguay.

Synthesis

Uruguay are firmly favored over Cape Verde Islands at this neutral Miami venue, with a stable bookmaker consensus implying about 64.9% for a Uruguay win against just 12.2% for Cape Verde and 22.9% for the draw, and no injuries or suspensions reported for either side. The decisive tradeoff is the strong, agreed market lean toward Uruguay versus their draw-heavy, low-scoring recent form and Cape Verde's resilience shown in a goalless draw with Spain; as a hypothesis Uruguay may need patience to break a compact opponent, so a tight margin or even a stalemate is a realistic scenario, which keeps confidence moderate.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives independently favor Uruguay, anchored on a tight and stable bookmaker consensus across 14 samples implying roughly 64.9% for a Uruguay win, 22.9% for the draw and only 12.2% for Cape Verde Islands, with the favorite priced near 1.44-1.49. Both squads report no injuries or suspensions, and the warm, humid Miami conditions are not extreme enough to alter the lean. The main counterweight, recognized across the perspectives, is Uruguay's draw-laden and low-scoring recent run a

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.85. Probability distribution: Spain win 85.0%; draw 10.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 5.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 8.5%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 3-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 2-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Preview editionRecall anchors: ksa uru group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Uruguay win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Saudi Arabia win 13.0%; draw 23.0%; Uruguay win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, Saudi Arabia 0-relevance 0.50