Kimi K2.6 · Spain vs Cape Verde Islands

SpainvsCape Verde Islands
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win88%Miss
BetNo bet this match
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L—
PredictionConfidence: 88%
Home win

Spain are overwhelming favorites against Cape Verde Islands, with both the rational and market perspectives aligning on a decisive Spanish victory. Bookmakers price Spain as short as 1.08–1.10, implying roughly an 87% win probability, while Cape Verde Islands are priced around 21–27. Spain enter the match with strong recent form, including a Euro Championship title and seven wins from their last ten matches, whereas Cape Verde Islands have faced weaker opposition and suffered a 4-2 defeat to Chile in their most competitive recent fixture. The gap in competitive pedigree and sustained success against stronger sides is substantial. No injuries or suspensions have been flagged to alter this assessment.

Bet

No bet this match

Spain are overwhelming favorites at ~1.08 with no meaningful edge on any outcome. The model gives Spain an 88% win probability, but the market prices them at roughly the same level, leaving negative o

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 2 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 88%Draw 9%Away win 3%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 2
  1. #13-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #34-0

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive factors are the overwhelming odds consensus favoring Spain and the clear gap in competitive pedigree and recent results, with Spain showing sustained success against stronger sides and Cape Verde Islands lacking comparable high-level experience. Missing head-to-head and weather data do not alter this outlook.
  • - The market prices Spain as overwhelming favourites, supported by Spain's superior recent results against stronger opponents and Cape Verde Islands' mixed record against higher-ranked teams. The short odds on Spain and long odds on Cape Verde Islands reflect a large perceived quality gap, and there is no visible evidence of injuries or suspensions to alter that assessment.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.60Log loss 2.41

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winThe decisive factors are the overwhelming odds consensus favoring Spain and the clear gap in competitive pedigree and recent results, with Spain showing sustained success against stronger sides and Cape Verde Islands lacking comparable high-level experience. Missing head-to-head and weather data do not alter this outlook.91%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T12:00:00-04:00. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.2%, draw 9%, side B win 3.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z -> 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.35pp, draw -0.31pp, side B win -0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 8.7 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 8.75 / side B 27; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.08 / draw 12 / side B 21. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.09, draw 8.75, side B 27; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.08, draw 12, side B 21; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.06 / under 6.05.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-05T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against England, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2023-11-21T13:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Africa, against Eswatini, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  10. The decisive factors are the overwhelming odds consensus favoring Spain and the clear gap in competitive pedigree and recent results, with Spain showing sustained success against stronger sides and Cape Verde Islands lacking comparable high-level experience. Missing head-to-head and weather data do not alter this outlook.

Conclusion note

Spain are heavy favorites against Cape Verde Islands, with bookmakers pricing a Spanish win around 1.08–1.10 and an implied probability near 87%. Spain also enter the match with strong recent form, including a Euro Championship title and multiple Nations League wins, while Cape Verde Islands have mostly faced weaker opposition in friendlies and suffered a 2-4 loss to Chile in their most competitive recent outing.

marketHome winThe market prices Spain as overwhelming favourites, supported by Spain's superior recent results against stronger opponents and Cape Verde Islands' mixed record against higher-ranked teams. The short odds on Spain and long odds on Cape Verde Islands reflect a large perceived quality gap, and there is no visible evidence of injuries or suspensions to alter that assessment.88%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T12:00:00-04:00. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.2%, draw 9%, side B win 3.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z -> 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.35pp, draw -0.31pp, side B win -0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 8.7 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 8.75 / side B 27; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.08 / draw 12 / side B 21. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.09, draw 8.75, side B 27; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.08, draw 12, side B 21; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.06 / under 6.05.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-05T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-07-14T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against England, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T16:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:

    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
    • 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2023-11-21T13:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Africa, against Eswatini, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  10. The market prices Spain as overwhelming favourites, supported by Spain's superior recent results against stronger opponents and Cape Verde Islands' mixed record against higher-ranked teams. The short odds on Spain and long odds on Cape Verde Islands reflect a large perceived quality gap, and there is no visible evidence of injuries or suspensions to alter that assessment.

Conclusion note

Spain are heavy favourites according to the bookmaker consensus, with an latest implied win probability of 87.2% and odds as short as 1.08–1.10, while Cape Verde Islands are priced around 21–27. Spain's recent form is strong, with seven wins in their last ten and only one defeat, whereas Cape Verde Islands have faced weaker opposition and suffered a 4-2 loss to Chile in their most recent competitive outing.

Synthesis

Spain are overwhelming favorites against Cape Verde Islands, with both the rational and market perspectives aligning on a decisive Spanish victory. Bookmakers price Spain as short as 1.08–1.10, implying roughly an 87% win probability, while Cape Verde Islands are priced around 21–27. Spain enter the match with strong recent form, including a Euro Championship title and seven wins from their last ten matches, whereas Cape Verde Islands have faced weaker opposition and suffered a 4-2 defeat to Chile in their most competitive recent fixture. The gap in competitive pedigree and sustained success against stronger sides is substantial. No injuries or suspensions have been flagged to alter this assessment.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives converge on a Spain win with high confidence. The market consensus and Spain's superior recent results against stronger opponents, combined with Cape Verde Islands' lack of comparable high-level experience, form the decisive evidence. The absence of conflicting factors such as key absences or adverse conditions supports the high probability assigned to a Spanish victory.