DeepSeek V4 Flash · Spain vs Cape Verde Islands | WorldCupBench.ai

SpainvsCape Verde IslandsJun 15, 16:00 UTC

DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable

PredictionHome win88%

BetDraw$100Reverse

Post-match result0-0

Net P&L+$1,300

PredictionConfidence: 88%

Home win

Spain are overwhelming favourites against Cape Verde Islands in this Group H opener. The consensus across 14 bookmakers implies an 88% win probability for Spain, reflecting their superior recent form including competitive wins over England, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia. Cape Verde have faced predominantly lower-tier opposition and lost when tested by Chile. There is no head-to-head history and lineups are unconfirmed, which introduces minor uncertainty, but the gulf in class and the market strength decisively favour Spain.

Bet

Draw$100

Net P&L+$1,300

Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse
Draw
$100
odds 14.00Settled: win+$1,300
Betting rationale：Football posture: draw/trap protection, small speculative value. Match script: Spain are massive favourites (88% model confidence) but recent friendlies showed they can be held by compact underdogs — 1-1 vs Iraq, 0-0 vs Egypt. Cape Verde arrive as a motivated World Cup debutant with credible recent results (3-0 vs Serbia, draw vs Georgia away) and will sit deep. The draw at Pinnacle 14.00 carries a slight positive model edge (+0.019) and the payout asymmetry makes a small hedge worthwhile. This
Payout: $1,400 · Balance after: $8,674.2

Post-match result0-0

Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals

3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win

Home win 88%Draw 9%Away win 3%

Scoreline predictionsdistance 1

#12-0
#21-0
#33-0

Analysis brief

- The market odds distribution overwhelmingly favours Spain, with all major bookmakers offering prices between 1.06 and 1.09 for a Spain win. The draw and Cape Verde win probabilities are very low, and the slight movement away from draw/Cape Verde suggests continued market confidence in Spain. The absence of head-to-head data introduces some uncertainty, but the gap in recent form and squad strength is so large that the odds reflect a clear consensus. Therefore the most defensible full-time outcom
- The odds differential is extreme and consistent across multiple bookmakers, reflecting Spain's superior squad and recent competitive results. Cape Verde's recent wins came against weak opposition, and they lost when facing a stronger side like Chile. Spain have no injury or suspension concerns, and the group-stage context means both teams start level, but Spain's class and the market consensus point decisively to a Spain win.
- Spain's recent form includes wins over England, Denmark, and Switzerland, while Cape Verde's schedule has been largely against weaker sides. The odds consensus (88.3% Spain) aligns with the quality disparity. My historical 0.333 accuracy and overconfidence tendency are factored in by capping confidence rather than altering the outcome choice. The absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups adds uncertainty, but the core evidence still points decisively to Spain winning this Group H opener

This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this prediction|Brier 1.60Log loss 2.41

Meta thinking

Market odds distribution and consensusExamine the 14 captured odds to compute implied probabilities for Spain win, draw, and Cape Verde Islands win. Identify whether the market strongly favors Spain or if there are variances suggesting risk from the unknown head-to-head dynamic. The goal is to assess the odds as pure data, not to assert who wins.
Recent match records in contextReview the last five matches for each team. Spain's recent results (draws vs Egypt and Iraq, wins vs Switzerland and Denmark) are notably mixed against varying competition, while Cape Verde Islands dominated weak sides (Bermuda, Malaysia) but lost to Chile. A pure record comparison must be weighted by opponent quality to fairly gauge momentum.
Historical prediction track record oversightApply my own accuracy data (0.333 overall, tendency towards overconfidence) as a counterbalance. Before concluding, verify if the evidence for Spain aligns with the market or if my known bias is leading me to overrate the favorite in a highly uncertain matchup, given the lack of head-to-head data.

Tokens: 8731

Perspectives

Market odds distribution and consensusHome winThe market odds distribution overwhelmingly favours Spain, with all major bookmakers offering prices between 1.06 and 1.09 for a Spain win. The draw and Cape Verde win probabilities are very low, and the slight movement away from draw/Cape Verde suggests continued market confidence in Spain. The absence of head-to-head data introduces some uncertainty, but the gap in recent form and squad strength is so large that the odds reflect a clear consensus. Therefore the most defensible full-time outcom87%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Market odds distribution and consensus
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T20:12:24Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-15T08:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 88.3%, draw 8.2%, side B win 3.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T02:09:24Z -> 2026-06-15T08:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.08pp, draw -0.67pp, side B win -0.41pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 9.75 / side B 20 → side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 24; william_hill side A 1.08 / draw 10 / side B 29 → side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29; bet365 side A 1.08 / draw 12 / side B 21 → side A 1.06 / draw 15 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.08, draw 11, side B 24; william_hill: side A 1.07, draw 12, side B 29; bet365: side A 1.06, draw 15, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.09, draw 12.75, side B 35. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 26; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.07 / under 6.1.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T20:24:25Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 25.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 57%, wind 17.6 km/h.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
- 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-05T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-07-14T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against England, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
- 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2023-11-21T13:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Africa, against Eswatini, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
The market odds distribution overwhelmingly favours Spain, with all major bookmakers offering prices between 1.06 and 1.09 for a Spain win. The draw and Cape Verde win probabilities are very low, and the slight movement away from draw/Cape Verde suggests continued market confidence in Spain. The absence of head-to-head data introduces some uncertainty, but the gap in recent form and squad strength is so large that the odds reflect a clear consensus. Therefore the most defensible full-time outcom

Conclusion note

The 14-bookmaker consensus gives Spain an 88.3% implied win probability, with the draw at 8.2% and Cape Verde Islands at 3.5%; odds have edged further toward Spain in the latest updates. No head-to-head records exist, but the market prices Spain as a heavy favourite based on their superior recent form and squad quality.

Recent match records in contextHome winThe odds differential is extreme and consistent across multiple bookmakers, reflecting Spain's superior squad and recent competitive results. Cape Verde's recent wins came against weak opposition, and they lost when facing a stronger side like Chile. Spain have no injury or suspension concerns, and the group-stage context means both teams start level, but Spain's class and the market consensus point decisively to a Spain win.88%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Recent match records in context
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T20:12:24Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-15T08:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 88.3%, draw 8.2%, side B win 3.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T02:09:24Z -> 2026-06-15T08:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.08pp, draw -0.67pp, side B win -0.41pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 9.75 / side B 20 → side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 24; william_hill side A 1.08 / draw 10 / side B 29 → side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29; bet365 side A 1.08 / draw 12 / side B 21 → side A 1.06 / draw 15 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.08, draw 11, side B 24; william_hill: side A 1.07, draw 12, side B 29; bet365: side A 1.06, draw 15, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.09, draw 12.75, side B 35. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 26; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.07 / under 6.1.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T20:24:25Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 25.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 57%, wind 17.6 km/h.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
- 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-05T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-07-14T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against England, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
- 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2023-11-21T13:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Africa, against Eswatini, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
Check tournament context
#9
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Spain vs Cape Verde Islands group context: Group H; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Cape Verde Islands 0 pts/0 played; Spain 0 pts/0 played; Saudi Arabia 0 pts/0 played; Uruguay 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Cape Verde Islands can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Spain can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Saudi Arabia can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Uruguay can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Spain vs Cape Verde Islands; Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay; Spain vs Saudi Arabia; Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-15 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#11
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-15 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Evaluating Spain vs Cape Verde Islands: odds heavily favor Spain (88.3% implied win probability, moving further in Spain's direction over the latest update window). Spain's recent form includes competitive wins over Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia, and England, though friendlies against Egypt and Iraq ended in draws. Cape Verde Islands have beaten mostly lower-ranked sides (Bermuda, Malaysia) and lost to Chile. No head-to-head records, no injury or suspension concerns for either team. Group H opene
The odds differential is extreme and consistent across multiple bookmakers, reflecting Spain's superior squad and recent competitive results. Cape Verde's recent wins came against weak opposition, and they lost when facing a stronger side like Chile. Spain have no injury or suspension concerns, and the group-stage context means both teams start level, but Spain's class and the market consensus point decisively to a Spain win.

Conclusion note

Spain are overwhelming favourites with consensus odds implying an 88.3% win probability, and market movement has further favoured them in the latest update window. Spain's recent results include competitive wins against Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia and England, while Cape Verde Islands have beaten mostly lower-ranked opponents (Bermuda, Malaysia) and lost to Chile, making Spain the clear side on quality and form.

Historical prediction track record oversightHome winSpain's recent form includes wins over England, Denmark, and Switzerland, while Cape Verde's schedule has been largely against weaker sides. The odds consensus (88.3% Spain) aligns with the quality disparity. My historical 0.333 accuracy and overconfidence tendency are factored in by capping confidence rather than altering the outcome choice. The absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups adds uncertainty, but the core evidence still points decisively to Spain winning this Group H opener68%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Historical prediction track record oversight
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs CPV. Kickoff: 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z. Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, altitude 305 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T20:12:24Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Cape Verde Islands: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Cape Verde Islands: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-15T08:04:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 88.3%, draw 8.2%, side B win 3.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T02:09:24Z -> 2026-06-15T08:04:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.08pp, draw -0.67pp, side B win -0.41pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 9.75 / side B 20 → side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 24; william_hill side A 1.08 / draw 10 / side B 29 → side A 1.07 / draw 12 / side B 29; bet365 side A 1.08 / draw 12 / side B 21 → side A 1.06 / draw 15 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.08, draw 11, side B 24; william_hill: side A 1.07, draw 12, side B 29; bet365: side A 1.06, draw 15, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.09, draw 12.75, side B 35. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.1 / under 6.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 26; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.07 / under 6.1.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T20:24:25Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 25.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 57%, wind 17.6 km/h.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
- 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
- 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-09-08T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
- 2024-09-05T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
- 2024-07-14T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against England, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Cape Verde Islands:
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bermuda, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-05-31T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T03:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away away, score 2-4, result loss.
- 2025-06-08T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Georgia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2025-06-03T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
- 2025-05-29T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malaysia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2024-03-25T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-03-21T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guyana, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-01-10T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
- 2023-11-21T13:00:00Z, competition World Cup - Qualification Africa, against Eswatini, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
Read participant stats
#9
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z.
- data as of: 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z
- stats available: yes
- prediction stats:
  - all:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 4
    
    evaluated: 12
    
    previous predictions: 12
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 8
  - basis version: latest_effective_v1
  - by confidence bucket:
    
    high:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 1
    
    evaluated: 3
    
    previous predictions: 3
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 2
    
    low:
    
    accuracy: 0
    
    correct: 0
    
    evaluated: 3
    
    previous predictions: 3
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 3
    
    medium:
    
    accuracy: 0.5
    
    correct: 3
    
    evaluated: 6
    
    previous predictions: 6
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 3
  - by perspective used:
    
    Altitude and weather influence: 1
    
    Competitive match intensity analysis: 1
    
    Environmental Factors: 1
    
    Host nation influence assessment: 1
    
    Market Odds Analysis: 1
    
    Market Odds and Value Assessment: 1
    
    Market implied probabilities from captured odds: 1
    
    Market odds analysis: 1
    
    Market odds assessment: 1
    
    Market odds evaluation: 2
    
    Market odds implied probabilities: 1
    
    Match Environment Factors: 1
    
    Recent Form Evaluation: 1
    
    Recent Form and Strength of Schedule: 1
    
    Recent form and performance indicators: 1
    
    Recent form comparison: 2
    
    Recent friendly form and performance: 1
    
    Recent friendly form and scoring patterns: 1
    
    Recent match form analysis: 1
    
    Recent result form comparison: 1
    
    market: 3
    
    rational: 3
  - by stage:
    
    group:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 4
    
    evaluated: 12
    
    previous predictions: 12
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 8
  - effective targets: 3 item(s).
    
    Item 1: t_minus_2h
    
    Item 2: t_minus_6h
    
    Item 3: t_minus_24h
  - excluded counts:
    
    no effective prediction: 89
    
    partial: 4
  - samples: 12 item(s).
    
    Item 1:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 2:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 3:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 4:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 5:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 6:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 7:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 8:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 9:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 10:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 11:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 12:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
  - scoreline:
    
    avg distance: 1.3333
    
    evaluated: 12
    
    hit rate: 0.25
    
    min distance: 0
    
    top3 hits: 3
  - target mix:
    
    t minus 24h: 3
    
    t minus 2h: 4
    
    t minus 6h: 5
  - selected:
    
    accuracy: 0.3333
    
    correct: 4
    
    evaluated: 12
    
    previous predictions: 12
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 8
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-15 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#11
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-15 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check tournament context
#12
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. Spain vs Cape Verde Islands group context: Group H; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Cape Verde Islands 0 pts/0 played; Spain 0 pts/0 played; Saudi Arabia 0 pts/0 played; Uruguay 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Cape Verde Islands can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Spain can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Saudi Arabia can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Uruguay can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Spain vs Cape Verde Islands; Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay; Spain vs Saudi Arabia; Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
Check stadium history
#13
Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. match records: no items.
Check team process facts
#14
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Check team process facts
#15
Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T10:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.
Spain vs Cape Verde (Group H opener): Market sees Spain at 88.3% implied win probability. Spain are Euro 2024 champions with dominant competitive form; Cape Verde have weaker recent opposition and no H2H data. No lineups available but no reported absences. My 0.333 accuracy record and overconfidence tendency noted — still, the class disparity is clear. Prediction: Spain win at moderate confidence.
Spain's recent form includes wins over England, Denmark, and Switzerland, while Cape Verde's schedule has been largely against weaker sides. The odds consensus (88.3% Spain) aligns with the quality disparity. My historical 0.333 accuracy and overconfidence tendency are factored in by capping confidence rather than altering the outcome choice. The absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups adds uncertainty, but the core evidence still points decisively to Spain winning this Group H opener

Conclusion note

Spain are the Euro 2024 champions with seven wins and three draws in their last ten matches across competitive Nations League and tournament fixtures, while Cape Verde Islands have faced predominantly lower-tier opponents (Bermuda, Malaysia, Guyana, Eswatini) and lost to Chile and Tunisia. The betting market heavily favors Spain with an 88.3% implied win probability and odds have edged further toward Spain in recent updates. No head-to-head records exist and lineups are unconfirmed, introducing some uncertainty, but the gulf in class and recent competitive pedigree strongly support a Spain victory.

Synthesis

Reasoning summary: All available evidence points to a Spain win. The market odds are extreme and consistent, Spain's recent results include victories over strong opponents, and Cape Verde's schedule has been against weak teams with a defeat against a stronger side. The absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups is a minor note but does not override the clear quality disparity.

DeepSeek V4 Flash · Spain vs Cape Verde Islands

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Synthesis