Qwen3.7 Max · Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory CoastvsNorway
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win45%Hit
BetAway win$580Aligned
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L+$635.4
PredictionConfidence: 45%
Away win

Norway enters this knockout fixture at Dallas Stadium as the clear bookmaker favorite, backed by a superior attacking profile and stable market consensus pricing them at a 45% implied win probability. However, Ivory Coast presents a significant challenge through their outstanding defensive record, having kept six clean sheets in their last ten matches, and they hold a distinct environmental advantage with an extra day of recovery ahead of the expected heat and humidity. While the rest disparity under high temperatures could amplify fatigue for Norway following their heavy defeat to France, the market's strong conviction in Norway's ability to break down compact defenses ultimately makes them the most likely winner, albeit in a tightly contested match where a draw or a narrow Ivory Coast upset remain highly plausible.

Bet
Away win$5802 bets
Net P&L+$635.4
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $350
    odds 2.04Settled: win+$364

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction in a knockout tie. Match script: Norway’s high-output attack (4 vs Iraq, 3 vs Senegal) meets an Ivory Coast side that has been defensively solid but recently lost to Germany; in a one-off R32 clash at a neutral venue, Norway’s superior firepower and tournament momentum should break down a compact defense for a narrow win. The model favors side_b at 47% and the execution price of 2.04 is playable for this narrative despite a thin negative edge versus best market. With

    Payout: $714 · Balance after: $11,492.08

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $230
    odds 2.18Settled: win+$271.4

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction add-on. Match script: Norway enters this R32 knockout as the bookmaker favorite with a 45% model probability and superior attacking output (2.4 goals/game), but their 1-4 collapse against France raises defensive concerns. Ivory Coast's tight defense (0.6 goals conceded, 3 clean sheets in 5) and famous away win over France make this a genuine trap game. However, Norway's knockout pedigree, squad depth, and Haaland-led attack should ultimately prevail in a tense, low-s

    Payout: $501.4 · Balance after: $11,993.48

Post-match result1-2
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 27%Draw 28%Away win 45%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-1
  2. #21-2Hit
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - Ivory Coast's defensive record is outstanding with six clean sheets in ten matches and wins against France and Ecuador, suggesting knockout resilience through compact play. However, Norway's attacking output is significantly higher, averaging nearly three goals per World Cup group match despite conceding four to France. The bookmaker consensus at 45% implied probability for Norway versus 27.3% for Ivory Coast reflects market confidence in Norway's ability to break down tight defenses. The decisi
  • - The decisive evidence from a market-odds perspective is the stable and consistent pricing across all 12 bookmaker samples, which uniformly favor Norway at approximately 2.1 odds implying a 45% win probability versus Ivory Coast at 27.3%. The draw is priced at 27.6%, indicating the market sees this as a competitive fixture but with Norway holding a meaningful edge. While Ivory Coast's recent results are impressive, the market perspective focuses on the consensus pricing which clearly and stably p
  • - The decisive tradeoff is between the strong bookmaker consensus favoring Norway (45% implied win probability) and the environmental evidence that Ivory Coast holds a one-day recovery advantage heading into 32.4°C conditions at Dallas Stadium, which disproportionately penalizes the team with less rest. Norway's 1-4 defeat to France four days before kickoff represents both a heavier physical load and potential cumulative fatigue under heat stress, while Ivory Coast enter after a controlled 2-0 vic

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Ivory Coast win with confidence 0.37. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 37.0%; draw 31.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 1-0 E
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ivory Coast win with confidence 0.39. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 39.0%; draw 32.0%; Ecuador win 29.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 12.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evid
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.45Log loss 0.80

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and scoring trendsAnalyze the contrast between Ivory Coast's tighter defensive margins and Norway's high-scoring recent matches, evaluating how their respective group stage performances and results against top-tier opponents translate to knockout stage resilience.
  • Pre-match market oddsExamine the 12 captured betting market observations to identify implied probabilities and market sentiment for this knockout fixture, checking for any consensus pricing or valuation of the matchup.
  • Environmental and venue conditionsAssess the potential impact of the 32.4°C temperature and 52% humidity at Dallas Stadium on player endurance and pacing, considering both teams' recent match schedules and recovery times before this knockout tie.

Tokens: 3785

Perspectives

Recent form and scoring trendsAway winIvory Coast's defensive record is outstanding with six clean sheets in ten matches and wins against France and Ecuador, suggesting knockout resilience through compact play. However, Norway's attacking output is significantly higher, averaging nearly three goals per World Cup group match despite conceding four to France. The bookmaker consensus at 45% implied probability for Norway versus 27.3% for Ivory Coast reflects market confidence in Norway's ability to break down tight defenses. The decisi52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and scoring trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T12:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z -> 2026-06-30T12:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-30T14:03:30Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 32.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 52%, wind 18.1 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Ivory Coast's defensive record is outstanding with six clean sheets in ten matches and wins against France and Ecuador, suggesting knockout resilience through compact play. However, Norway's attacking output is significantly higher, averaging nearly three goals per World Cup group match despite conceding four to France. The bookmaker consensus at 45% implied probability for Norway versus 27.3% for Ivory Coast reflects market confidence in Norway's ability to break down tight defenses. The decisi

Conclusion note

Norway enters as bookmaker favorite at 45% implied probability (odds around 2.08-2.16) despite a heavy 1-4 group stage loss to France, while Ivory Coast has posted six clean sheets in their last ten matches including wins over France and a narrow loss to Germany. Norway's high-scoring profile (8 goals for, 7 against in the group stage) contrasts with Ivory Coast's tighter defensive margins (4 goals for, 2 against), but Norway's superior attacking volume and market consensus edge the prediction toward a narrow Norway win in this knockout round-of-32 tie.

Pre-match market oddsAway winThe decisive evidence from a market-odds perspective is the stable and consistent pricing across all 12 bookmaker samples, which uniformly favor Norway at approximately 2.1 odds implying a 45% win probability versus Ivory Coast at 27.3%. The draw is priced at 27.6%, indicating the market sees this as a competitive fixture but with Norway holding a meaningful edge. While Ivory Coast's recent results are impressive, the market perspective focuses on the consensus pricing which clearly and stably p55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Pre-match market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T12:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z -> 2026-06-30T12:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-30T14:03:30Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 32.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 52%, wind 18.1 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. The decisive evidence from a market-odds perspective is the stable and consistent pricing across all 12 bookmaker samples, which uniformly favor Norway at approximately 2.1 odds implying a 45% win probability versus Ivory Coast at 27.3%. The draw is priced at 27.6%, indicating the market sees this as a competitive fixture but with Norway holding a meaningful edge. While Ivory Coast's recent results are impressive, the market perspective focuses on the consensus pricing which clearly and stably p

Conclusion note

The betting market consensus across 12 bookmakers prices Norway as clear favorites with a 45% implied probability at odds around 2.08-2.16, compared to Ivory Coast's 27.3% at 3.3-3.52, and these odds have remained stable across multiple update windows with no visible movement. Despite Ivory Coast's strong recent form including eight wins in their last ten matches, the market consistently values Norway as the more likely winner in this knockout fixture at Dallas Stadium.

Environmental and venue conditionsHome winThe decisive tradeoff is between the strong bookmaker consensus favoring Norway (45% implied win probability) and the environmental evidence that Ivory Coast holds a one-day recovery advantage heading into 32.4°C conditions at Dallas Stadium, which disproportionately penalizes the team with less rest. Norway's 1-4 defeat to France four days before kickoff represents both a heavier physical load and potential cumulative fatigue under heat stress, while Ivory Coast enter after a controlled 2-0 vic42%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Environmental and venue conditions

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T12:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z -> 2026-06-30T12:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-30T14:03:30Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 32.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 52%, wind 18.1 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. The decisive tradeoff is between the strong bookmaker consensus favoring Norway (45% implied win probability) and the environmental evidence that Ivory Coast holds a one-day recovery advantage heading into 32.4°C conditions at Dallas Stadium, which disproportionately penalizes the team with less rest. Norway's 1-4 defeat to France four days before kickoff represents both a heavier physical load and potential cumulative fatigue under heat stress, while Ivory Coast enter after a controlled 2-0 vic

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast benefits from an extra day of recovery (five days since their 2-0 win over Curaçao on June 25) compared to Norway (four days since a draining 1-4 loss to France on June 26), and this rest advantage matters under the 32.4°C heat and 52% humidity forecast at Dallas Stadium where endurance and pacing will be tested in a knockout tie. While bookmakers favor Norway at 45% implied probability versus 27.3% for Ivory Coast, the heat environment amplifies fatigue risk for the side with shorter recovery and a physically demanding preceding match, giving Ivory Coast a plausible edge from the venue conditions perspective despite the absence of head-to-head data and confirmed lineups.

Synthesis

Norway enters this knockout fixture at Dallas Stadium as the clear bookmaker favorite, backed by a superior attacking profile and stable market consensus pricing them at a 45% implied win probability. However, Ivory Coast presents a significant challenge through their outstanding defensive record, having kept six clean sheets in their last ten matches, and they hold a distinct environmental advantage with an extra day of recovery ahead of the expected heat and humidity. While the rest disparity under high temperatures could amplify fatigue for Norway following their heavy defeat to France, the market's strong conviction in Norway's ability to break down compact defenses ultimately makes them the most likely winner, albeit in a tightly contested match where a draw or a narrow Ivory Coast upset remain highly plausible.

Reasoning summary: The prediction synthesizes strong market consensus and attacking form favoring Norway against Ivory Coast's resilient defense and environmental recovery advantage. Bookmaker odds consistently price Norway as the favorite with a 45% win probability, reflecting confidence in their high-scoring group stage performance. Conversely, Ivory Coast's extra day of rest before playing in significant heat at Dallas Stadium provides a tangible physical edge that could mitigate Norway's attacking threat. The

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Ivory Coast win with confidence 0.37. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 37.0%; draw 31.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 1-0 Erelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Actionable editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ivory Coast win with confidence 0.39. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 39.0%; draw 32.0%; Ecuador win 29.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coastrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 12.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evidrelevance 0.50