Kimi K2.6 · Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory CoastvsNorway
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win45%Hit
BetBet portfolio$760Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L+$463.8
PredictionConfidence: 45%
Away win

Norway are favored to advance past Ivory Coast in this knockout tie, though the margin is narrow and uncertainty is substantial. The bookmaker consensus gives Norway an roughly 45% implied win probability against Ivory Coast's 27%, which two of three perspectives treat as decisive given the absence of head-to-head history, injury data, or confirmed lineups. Ivory Coast's case rests on stronger recent tournament form—three World Cup wins including victories over Germany and France—and three consecutive clean sheets that suggest a compact, organized defensive block. Norway's results have been more erratic, from a 4-1 win over Iraq to a 1-4 collapse against France. The heat-stress perspective finds no clear edge either way, and the goal-pattern view flags a tight, low-scoring match as plausible. The minority draw view (35% confidence) is not dismissed because Ivory Coast's defensive discipline could neutralize Norway's attack and produce extra time. Yet without concrete evidence that Ivory Coast's form is superior to Norway's underlying quality, the market consensus—supported by Norway's own group-stage wins over Iraq and Senegal—remains the most defensible anchor. A cagey first half with Norway gradually asserting quality is a plausible but unverified scenario.

Bet
Bet portfolio$7603 bets
Net P&L+$463.8
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $290
    odds 2.04Settled: win+$301.6

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with measured stake. Match script: Norway's tournament attacking output (4-1 vs Iraq, 3-2 vs Senegal) gives them a clear edge against an Ivory Coast side that scraped narrow wins and lost to Germany. The knockout setting favors the team that can break down a compact defense, and Norway's firepower fits that narrative. The model prices Norway at 0.500 probability versus execution odds of ~2.04 (implied 0.490), giving a thin +0.010 edge. That's not overwhelmin

    Payout: $591.6 · Balance after: $10,080.4

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $290
    odds 2.18Settled: win+$342.2

    Betting rationale：Posture: confident favorite conviction with a small top-up. Match script: Norway's attacking verve (7 goals in last two group games) against Ivory Coast's narrower, grind-it-out wins suggests Norway will dictate tempo in the Texas heat. Ivory Coast's resilience is real—they beat France and Germany—but this is the knockout stage where Norway's firepower and market pricing as ~45% favorite should tell. The model and market converge on Norway, and while there's no strong edge vs execution, the foot

    Payout: $632.2 · Balance after: $10,712.6

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $180
    odds 3.50Settled: loss-$180

    Betting rationale：Posture: contrarian hedge / tournament draw-trap conviction. Match script: Ivory Coast's compact defensive block (three clean sheets in last five) meets Norway's erratic but technically superior side in Texas heat. The prediction already flags a cagey, low-scoring affair, and the top predicted scorelines are 0-1, 1-1, 0-2—tight margins all. With Norway priced as clear favorite (~45% implied), the market is pricing out Ivory Coast's disciplined knockout resilience and the real chance this stays d

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,080.4

Post-match result1-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 22%Draw 33%Away win 45%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-1
  2. #21-1
  3. #30-2

Analysis brief

  • - Ivory Coast's recent form is stronger on paper with three World Cup wins including a victory over Germany, while Norway was beaten heavily by France and had a mixed group stage. However, the captured 12-bookmaker consensus makes Norway the clear favorite at 45% implied probability versus Ivory Coast's 27.3%, with only minor movement toward Ivory Coast (+0.46pp) in the latest updates. With no head-to-head, no injury or suspension data, and no lineups available, the most defensible reading is that
  • - The decisive evidence is the odds consensus, which prices Norway as the stronger side, and the absence of head-to-head records or injury data leaves the heat-stress perspective largely speculative. Ivory Coast have shown good recent form with wins over France and Germany, but Norway's victories over Iraq and Senegal in the group stage, combined with the market pricing, give them the edge in a knockout match with no confirmed squad rotation or fatigue issues.
  • - Ivory Coast's three consecutive clean sheets in competitive fixtures highlight strong defensive organization, whereas Norway's recent results swing from scoring four against Iraq to conceding four against France, indicating unreliable defensive stability. The odds marginally favor Norway, but the absence of head-to-head data and the clash of Ivory Coast's compact defensive pattern with Norway's high-variance attack create substantial uncertainty. Given the captured results alone, a tight match w

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 28.0%; draw 22.0%; Ecuador win 50.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 30.0%; draw 38.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivo
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Iraq win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.46Log loss 0.80

Meta thinking

  • Market odds alignment with recent formExamine whether the 12 captured odds reflect Ivory Coast's stronger recent World Cup results (3 wins from 4, including a win over Germany) versus Norway's heavy defeat to France and mixed group stage, or if the market prices in other factors not visible in match records.
  • Knockout round performance under heat stressAssess how the 31.8°C temperature at AT&T Stadium might affect both sides given their respective group-stage scheduling and travel patterns, with no current injury data available to indicate squad rotation or fatigue management.
  • Goal output pattern vs defensive resilienceCompare Ivory Coast's three consecutive clean sheets in competitive matches against Norway's high-variance scoring record (3 goals conceded to France, 4 scored against Iraq) to determine if the match projects as tight or open based on captured results alone.

Tokens: 1940

Perspectives

Market odds alignment with recent formAway winIvory Coast's recent form is stronger on paper with three World Cup wins including a victory over Germany, while Norway was beaten heavily by France and had a mixed group stage. However, the captured 12-bookmaker consensus makes Norway the clear favorite at 45% implied probability versus Ivory Coast's 27.3%, with only minor movement toward Ivory Coast (+0.46pp) in the latest updates. With no head-to-head, no injury or suspension data, and no lineups available, the most defensible reading is that56%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds alignment with recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T05:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.46pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -0.28pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.4 / draw 3.3 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-29T17:12:02Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 31.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 51%, wind 18.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Check team process facts

    #9

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Ivory Coast's recent form is stronger on paper with three World Cup wins including a victory over Germany, while Norway was beaten heavily by France and had a mixed group stage. However, the captured 12-bookmaker consensus makes Norway the clear favorite at 45% implied probability versus Ivory Coast's 27.3%, with only minor movement toward Ivory Coast (+0.46pp) in the latest updates. With no head-to-head, no injury or suspension data, and no lineups available, the most defensible reading is that

Conclusion note

The market consensus prices Norway as the favorite at an implied 45% win probability, while Ivory Coast is offered at 27.3%, despite Ivory Coast winning three of four World Cup matches including a victory over Germany and Norway suffering a heavy 1-4 defeat to France. The odds suggest the market prices in factors beyond the visible match records, such as underlying squad quality or tournament pedigree, which are not captured in recent form alone.

Knockout round performance under heat stressAway winThe decisive evidence is the odds consensus, which prices Norway as the stronger side, and the absence of head-to-head records or injury data leaves the heat-stress perspective largely speculative. Ivory Coast have shown good recent form with wins over France and Germany, but Norway's victories over Iraq and Senegal in the group stage, combined with the market pricing, give them the edge in a knockout match with no confirmed squad rotation or fatigue issues.58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Knockout round performance under heat stress

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T05:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.46pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -0.28pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.4 / draw 3.3 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-29T17:12:02Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 31.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 51%, wind 18.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Check team process facts

    #9

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. The decisive evidence is the odds consensus, which prices Norway as the stronger side, and the absence of head-to-head records or injury data leaves the heat-stress perspective largely speculative. Ivory Coast have shown good recent form with wins over France and Germany, but Norway's victories over Iraq and Senegal in the group stage, combined with the market pricing, give them the edge in a knockout match with no confirmed squad rotation or fatigue issues.

Conclusion note

Norway are favored by the bookmakers with an consensus implied win probability of 45 percent compared to Ivory Coast's 27.3 percent, and the forecast kickoff temperature of 31.8°C at AT&T Stadium offers no clear advantage to either side because both teams have played in warm conditions during the group stage and there is no visible injury or fatigue data to suggest one side handles heat better.

Goal output pattern vs defensive resilienceDrawIvory Coast's three consecutive clean sheets in competitive fixtures highlight strong defensive organization, whereas Norway's recent results swing from scoring four against Iraq to conceding four against France, indicating unreliable defensive stability. The odds marginally favor Norway, but the absence of head-to-head data and the clash of Ivory Coast's compact defensive pattern with Norway's high-variance attack create substantial uncertainty. Given the captured results alone, a tight match w35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Goal output pattern vs defensive resilience

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T05:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.46pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -0.28pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.4 / draw 3.3 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-29T17:12:02Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 31.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 51%, wind 18.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Ivory Coast's three consecutive clean sheets in competitive fixtures highlight strong defensive organization, whereas Norway's recent results swing from scoring four against Iraq to conceding four against France, indicating unreliable defensive stability. The odds marginally favor Norway, but the absence of head-to-head data and the clash of Ivory Coast's compact defensive pattern with Norway's high-variance attack create substantial uncertainty. Given the captured results alone, a tight match w

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast kept clean sheets in their last three competitive matches (1-0 vs Ecuador, 2-0 vs Curaçao, 1-0 vs Mozambique), while Norway showed high variance with a 4-1 win over Iraq and a 1-4 loss to France. The bookmaker consensus prices a Norway win at around 45% implied probability, but the contrast between Ivory Coast's defensive resilience and Norway's erratic attacking output makes a tight, low-scoring draw the most uncertain yet plausible outcome.

Synthesis

Norway are favored to advance past Ivory Coast in this knockout tie, though the margin is narrow and uncertainty is substantial. The bookmaker consensus gives Norway an roughly 45% implied win probability against Ivory Coast's 27%, which two of three perspectives treat as decisive given the absence of head-to-head history, injury data, or confirmed lineups. Ivory Coast's case rests on stronger recent tournament form—three World Cup wins including victories over Germany and France—and three consecutive clean sheets that suggest a compact, organized defensive block. Norway's results have been more erratic, from a 4-1 win over Iraq to a 1-4 collapse against France. The heat-stress perspective finds no clear edge either way, and the goal-pattern view flags a tight, low-scoring match as plausible. The minority draw view (35% confidence) is not dismissed because Ivory Coast's defensive discipline could neutralize Norway's attack and produce extra time. Yet without concrete evidence that Ivory Coast's form is superior to Norway's underlying quality, the market consensus—supported by Norway's own group-stage wins over Iraq and Senegal—remains the most defensible anchor. A cagey first half with Norway gradually asserting quality is a plausible but unverified scenario.

Reasoning summary: Two perspectives favor Norway based on market pricing (45% implied win probability versus Ivory Coast's 27%), while noting Ivory Coast's superior recent results and Norway's heavy defeat to France. A third perspective highlights Ivory Coast's three consecutive clean sheets and Norway's high-variance attack, making a tight draw plausible. No head-to-head, injury, or suspension data exists to break the tie. The recalled memories show past Ivory Coast matches were unpredictable (Ecuador prediction

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Actionable editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 28.0%; draw 22.0%; Ecuador win 50.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 30.0%; draw 38.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivorelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Iraq win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50