Kimi K2.6 · Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory CoastvsNorway
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win50%Hit
BetBet portfolio$760Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L+$463.8
PredictionConfidence: 50%
Away win

Norway enter this knockout tie as the market favorite, with bookmakers pricing them around 2.00 and giving them roughly double Ivory Coast's implied win probability. The decisive evidence centers on Norway's superior attacking output in the tournament proper: they beat Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, while Ivory Coast's results were more mixed, with a loss to Germany and narrower wins over Curaçao and Ecuador. Ivory Coast did keep clean sheets in two group games and posted eye-catching friendly wins over France and Scotland before the tournament, but those friendly results carry limited signal for knockout readiness. The market has remained stable on Norway with little drift toward Ivory Coast, suggesting confidence in the pricing. However, Ivory Coast's defensive organization and the absence of any injury or suspension edge for either side mean Norway's advantage is not overwhelming. A tight contest with Norway eventually converting their attacking edge is the most plausible scenario, though a draw remains live if Ivory Coast's defensive discipline holds.

Bet
Bet portfolio$7603 bets
Net P&L+$463.8
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $290
    odds 2.04Settled: win+$301.6

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favorite conviction with measured stake. Match script: Norway's tournament attacking output (4-1 vs Iraq, 3-2 vs Senegal) gives them a clear edge against an Ivory Coast side that scraped narrow wins and lost to Germany. The knockout setting favors the team that can break down a compact defense, and Norway's firepower fits that narrative. The model prices Norway at 0.500 probability versus execution odds of ~2.04 (implied 0.490), giving a thin +0.010 edge. That's not overwhelmin

    Payout: $591.6 · Balance after: $10,080.4

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $290
    odds 2.18Settled: win+$342.2

    Betting rationale：Posture: confident favorite conviction with a small top-up. Match script: Norway's attacking verve (7 goals in last two group games) against Ivory Coast's narrower, grind-it-out wins suggests Norway will dictate tempo in the Texas heat. Ivory Coast's resilience is real—they beat France and Germany—but this is the knockout stage where Norway's firepower and market pricing as ~45% favorite should tell. The model and market converge on Norway, and while there's no strong edge vs execution, the foot

    Payout: $632.2 · Balance after: $10,712.6

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $180
    odds 3.50Settled: loss-$180

    Betting rationale：Posture: contrarian hedge / tournament draw-trap conviction. Match script: Ivory Coast's compact defensive block (three clean sheets in last five) meets Norway's erratic but technically superior side in Texas heat. The prediction already flags a cagey, low-scoring affair, and the top predicted scorelines are 0-1, 1-1, 0-2—tight margins all. With Norway priced as clear favorite (~45% implied), the market is pricing out Ivory Coast's disciplined knockout resilience and the real chance this stays d

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,080.4

Post-match result1-2
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 27%Draw 23%Away win 50%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-2Hit
  2. #20-2
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus strongly favors Norway, with implied win probability roughly double Ivory Coast's and no meaningful drift toward the underdog across captured updates. Ivory Coast has shown solid recent form, but Norway also arrives with competitive World Cup results including a win over Senegal and a heavy loss to France that may have sharpened market pricing. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with lineups unknown, the most defensible read is that bookmakers correctly price Norway as
  • - The decisive trade-off is between Norway's impressive attacking output in the group stage and Ivory Coast's more conservative, mixed results. Ivory Coast did keep clean sheets against Curaçao and Ecuador, but their defeat to Germany and lack of convincing dominance suggests they may struggle against a Norway side that has shown greater firepower. The odds consensus, with Norway priced around 2.0 and Ivory Coast around 3.45-3.75, aligns with this tournament-form contrast. Without captured head-to
  • - The bookmakers make Norway the solid favourite and there is no strong contradictory evidence. Ivory Coast's friendly wins over France and Scotland look eye-catching, yet their tournament results are less convincing, and Norway's friendlies were only moderate. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with no injury or suspension edge for either side, the odds consensus is the most reliable guide, favouring a Norway victory.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 28.0%; draw 22.0%; Ecuador win 50.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 1-1
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 30.0%; draw 38.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivo
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Iraq win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.38Log loss 0.69

Meta thinking

  • market odds interpretationExamine the 12 captured odds sets for Ivory Coast vs Norway to understand how bookmakers price the knockout match, including any divergence between Asian handicap and 1X2 markets that could signal expected match dynamics.
  • recent tournament form contrastCompare Ivory Coast's and Norway's World Cup 2026 group-stage performances, noting Ivory Coast's mixed results against Germany, Curaçao and Ecuador versus Norway's high-scoring wins over Iraq and Senegal alongside a heavy defeat to France.
  • friendly form vs competitive formAssess whether pre-tournament friendly results for both sides, including Ivory Coast's wins over France and Scotland and Norway's draw with Morocco and win over Sweden, provide meaningful signal for knockout-stage readiness.

Tokens: 1767

Perspectives

market odds interpretationAway winThe odds consensus strongly favors Norway, with implied win probability roughly double Ivory Coast's and no meaningful drift toward the underdog across captured updates. Ivory Coast has shown solid recent form, but Norway also arrives with competitive World Cup results including a win over Senegal and a heavy loss to France that may have sharpened market pricing. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with lineups unknown, the most defensible read is that bookmakers correctly price Norway as65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds interpretation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.3%, draw 26.8%, side B win 47%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T08:15:08Z -> 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.06pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.4 / side B 2 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 2; bet365 side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.55, side B 2.02; william_hill: side A 3.5, draw 3.5, side B 2; bet365: side A 3.75, draw 3.5, side B 2; marathonbet: side A 3.7, draw 3.68, side B 2.03. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. The odds consensus strongly favors Norway, with implied win probability roughly double Ivory Coast's and no meaningful drift toward the underdog across captured updates. Ivory Coast has shown solid recent form, but Norway also arrives with competitive World Cup results including a win over Senegal and a heavy loss to France that may have sharpened market pricing. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with lineups unknown, the most defensible read is that bookmakers correctly price Norway as

Conclusion note

Twelve bookmaker sets price Norway as the clear favorite with a consensus implied probability near 47 percent, while Ivory Coast sits around 26 percent and the draw near 27 percent. Representative lines such as bet365 3.75-3.50-2.00 and William Hill 3.50-3.50-2.00 show stable Norway favoritism with little movement between the two visible update times, suggesting the market has settled on a Norway edge.

recent tournament form contrastAway winThe decisive trade-off is between Norway's impressive attacking output in the group stage and Ivory Coast's more conservative, mixed results. Ivory Coast did keep clean sheets against Curaçao and Ecuador, but their defeat to Germany and lack of convincing dominance suggests they may struggle against a Norway side that has shown greater firepower. The odds consensus, with Norway priced around 2.0 and Ivory Coast around 3.45-3.75, aligns with this tournament-form contrast. Without captured head-to62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent tournament form contrast

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.3%, draw 26.8%, side B win 47%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T08:15:08Z -> 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.06pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.4 / side B 2 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 2; bet365 side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.55, side B 2.02; william_hill: side A 3.5, draw 3.5, side B 2; bet365: side A 3.75, draw 3.5, side B 2; marathonbet: side A 3.7, draw 3.68, side B 2.03. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. The decisive trade-off is between Norway's impressive attacking output in the group stage and Ivory Coast's more conservative, mixed results. Ivory Coast did keep clean sheets against Curaçao and Ecuador, but their defeat to Germany and lack of convincing dominance suggests they may struggle against a Norway side that has shown greater firepower. The odds consensus, with Norway priced around 2.0 and Ivory Coast around 3.45-3.75, aligns with this tournament-form contrast. Without captured head-to

Conclusion note

Norway enter the knockout round with stronger attacking form from the group stage, having beaten Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, while Ivory Coast's group results were mixed with a loss to Germany and narrower wins over Curaçao and Ecuador. Bookmakers price Norway as clear favorites with consensus implied probability around 47 percent for an away win, reflecting their higher-scoring tournament performances.

friendly form vs competitive formAway winThe bookmakers make Norway the solid favourite and there is no strong contradictory evidence. Ivory Coast's friendly wins over France and Scotland look eye-catching, yet their tournament results are less convincing, and Norway's friendlies were only moderate. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with no injury or suspension edge for either side, the odds consensus is the most reliable guide, favouring a Norway victory.53%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    friendly form vs competitive form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.3%, draw 26.8%, side B win 47%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T08:15:08Z -> 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.06pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.4 / side B 2 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 2; bet365 side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.55, side B 2.02; william_hill: side A 3.5, draw 3.5, side B 2; bet365: side A 3.75, draw 3.5, side B 2; marathonbet: side A 3.7, draw 3.68, side B 2.03. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. The bookmakers make Norway the solid favourite and there is no strong contradictory evidence. Ivory Coast's friendly wins over France and Scotland look eye-catching, yet their tournament results are less convincing, and Norway's friendlies were only moderate. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with no injury or suspension edge for either side, the odds consensus is the most reliable guide, favouring a Norway victory.

Conclusion note

Norway are priced as clear favourites with consensus implied win probability near 47%, while Ivory Coast sit around 26%. Ivory Coast's pre-tournament friendlies included wins over France and Scotland, but in the World Cup proper they lost to Germany and beat only Curaçao and Ecuador. Norway also arrive from mixed competitive form with a heavy loss to France, yet their overall market rating and a draw with Morocco and win over Sweden in friendlies suggest the friendlies carry limited signal for knockout readiness.

Synthesis

Norway enter this knockout tie as the market favorite, with bookmakers pricing them around 2.00 and giving them roughly double Ivory Coast's implied win probability. The decisive evidence centers on Norway's superior attacking output in the tournament proper: they beat Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, while Ivory Coast's results were more mixed, with a loss to Germany and narrower wins over Curaçao and Ecuador. Ivory Coast did keep clean sheets in two group games and posted eye-catching friendly wins over France and Scotland before the tournament, but those friendly results carry limited signal for knockout readiness. The market has remained stable on Norway with little drift toward Ivory Coast, suggesting confidence in the pricing. However, Ivory Coast's defensive organization and the absence of any injury or suspension edge for either side mean Norway's advantage is not overwhelming. A tight contest with Norway eventually converting their attacking edge is the most plausible scenario, though a draw remains live if Ivory Coast's defensive discipline holds.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on Norway as the favorite, driven by market consensus near 47 percent implied probability and their stronger attacking form in competitive World Cup matches. Ivory Coast's pre-tournament friendly wins over France and Scotland are noted but discounted because friendlies carry weaker predictive value, and their tournament performances were less convincing. The recalled memory shows Norway were heavily favored against Iraq in their group opener, while Ivory Coast's m

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Actionable editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.50. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 28.0%; draw 22.0%; Ecuador win 50.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 1-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 30.0%; draw 38.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivorelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Iraq win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Norway win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-3 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50