GPT-5.5 · Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory CoastvsNorway
OpenAI
GPT-5.5OpenAI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win45%Hit
BetBet portfolio$850Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L-$305
PredictionConfidence: 45%
Away win

Ivory Coast have the better recent visible form, but Norway are still the market-backed favorite at about 45% for a 90-minute win versus roughly 27% each for Ivory Coast and the draw. With no listed injury or suspension edge and limited head-to-head context, the disagreement is mainly form against price, so Norway are preferred only narrowly.

Bet
Bet portfolio$8503 bets
Net P&L-$305
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $300
    odds 3.66Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw/trap protection. Norway are the model pick, but only cautiously: Ivory Coast arrive with better defensive recent results, an extra rest day, and enough knockout composure to slow Norway’s higher-tempo attack. With Norway underpriced at execution and the draw the only positive executable edge, I’ll back a tense 90-minute stalemate rather than chase the favorite.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,192.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Home win

    $300
    odds 3.59Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Hedge/portfolio balance: Norway is still the model lean and we already hold Norway plus draw, but the knockout script is not one-way. Ivory Coast’s recent defensive run, wins over Ecuador/Curaçao and a narrow Germany loss make them live in hot Dallas, while Norway have shown attacking power but also conceded heavily. Pinnacle offers the only small positive executable edge on Ivory Coast, so I’m buying upset protection rather than adding more to a crowded Norway/draw book.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,737.8

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $250
    odds 2.18Settled: win+$295

    Betting rationale：Posture: hedge/portfolio balance. The open draw ticket already owns the knockout-trap script, and 1-1 remains the clearest score path, but Norway are still the narrow model and market favorite with the cleaner 90-minute win probability. In a hot Dallas knockout match, Ivory Coast’s form keeps me wary, so this is not a max bet; it is a controlled Norway add to make the book profit/hold up if the favorite breaks the deadlock while keeping the existing draw cover alive.

    Payout: $545 · Balance after: $9,737.8

Post-match result1-2
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 27%Draw 28%Away win 45%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-1
  2. #20-1
  3. #31-2Hit

Analysis brief

  • - Norway are the narrow but clear rational pick because the latest 12-bookmaker consensus makes them the most likely 90-minute winner at about 45%, with no visible injury or suspension disadvantage for either team. Ivory Coast’s stronger recent run, including eight wins in their last ten visible matches, keeps the margin modest and makes this a low-to-medium confidence call rather than a firm favorite selection.
  • - Norway are the market-backed pick, with the latest consensus giving them about a 45% 90-minute win chance compared with roughly 27% each for Ivory Coast and the draw. Ivory Coast have the stronger recent results and no listed absences, but Norway's bookmaker edge across 12 samples is the clearest single signal, while missing lineups and no head-to-head data keep confidence moderate.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 29.0%; draw 33.0%; Ecuador win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-1
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 28.8%; draw 33.3%; Ecuador win 37.9%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuad
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 8.0%; draw 16.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.45Log loss 0.80

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalAway winNorway are the narrow but clear rational pick because the latest 12-bookmaker consensus makes them the most likely 90-minute winner at about 45%, with no visible injury or suspension disadvantage for either team. Ivory Coast’s stronger recent run, including eight wins in their last ten visible matches, keeps the margin modest and makes this a low-to-medium confidence call rather than a firm favorite selection.45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T05:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.46pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -0.28pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.4 / draw 3.3 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-29T17:12:02Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 31.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 51%, wind 18.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Norway are the narrow but clear rational pick because the latest 12-bookmaker consensus makes them the most likely 90-minute winner at about 45%, with no visible injury or suspension disadvantage for either team. Ivory Coast’s stronger recent run, including eight wins in their last ten visible matches, keeps the margin modest and makes this a low-to-medium confidence call rather than a firm favorite selection.

Conclusion note

Norway are favored by the latest bookmaker consensus at roughly 45% for a 90-minute win, ahead of Ivory Coast and the draw at about 27% each, and neither team has visible injury or suspension records in the current snapshot. Ivory Coast’s recent form is strong with eight wins in ten visible matches, so the market edge for Norway is meaningful but not overwhelming.

marketAway winNorway are the market-backed pick, with the latest consensus giving them about a 45% 90-minute win chance compared with roughly 27% each for Ivory Coast and the draw. Ivory Coast have the stronger recent results and no listed absences, but Norway's bookmaker edge across 12 samples is the clearest single signal, while missing lineups and no head-to-head data keep confidence moderate.45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-29T17:06:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-30T05:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 14, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 27.3%, draw 27.6%, side B win 45%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-30T06:00:07Z -> 2026-06-30T08:02:16Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.46pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -0.28pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.45 / side B 2.08; william_hill side A 3.4 / draw 3.3 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.3 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1; bet365 side A 3.5 / draw 3.4 / side B 2.1 → side A 3.4 / draw 3.5 / side B 2.1. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.4, draw 3.45, side B 2.08; william_hill: side A 3.3, draw 3.4, side B 2.1; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 3.5, side B 2.1; marathonbet: side A 3.52, draw 3.58, side B 2.16. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 10; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 10.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-29T17:12:02Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 31.8°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 51%, wind 18.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-30T11:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Norway are the market-backed pick, with the latest consensus giving them about a 45% 90-minute win chance compared with roughly 27% each for Ivory Coast and the draw. Ivory Coast have the stronger recent results and no listed absences, but Norway's bookmaker edge across 12 samples is the clearest single signal, while missing lineups and no head-to-head data keep confidence moderate.

Conclusion note

Bookmakers make Norway the clear 90-minute favorite against Ivory Coast, with the latest consensus at about 45% for Norway versus 27.3% for Ivory Coast and 27.6% for the draw. Ivory Coast arrive in stronger visible form and neither team has listed injuries or suspensions, so the market edge is meaningful but not decisive.

Synthesis

Ivory Coast have the better recent visible form, but Norway are still the market-backed favorite at about 45% for a 90-minute win versus roughly 27% each for Ivory Coast and the draw. With no listed injury or suspension edge and limited head-to-head context, the disagreement is mainly form against price, so Norway are preferred only narrowly.

Reasoning summary: Norway are the narrow 90-minute pick because both supplied perspectives point to the same bookmaker consensus, placing Norway around 45% compared with roughly 27% each for Ivory Coast and the draw. Ivory Coast's stronger recent visible form, with eight wins in ten matches, and the absence of listed injury or suspension disadvantages on either side keep the prediction moderate rather than strong.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Actionable editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 29.0%; draw 33.0%; Ecuador win 38.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Ecuador win with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 28.8%; draw 33.3%; Ecuador win 37.9%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-1 Ecuadrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Iraq win 8.0%; draw 16.0%; Norway win 76.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50