GLM-5.1 · Ivory Coast vs Norway

Ivory CoastvsNorway
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win37%Miss
BetBet portfolio$910Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L-$910
PredictionConfidence: 37%
Home win

Ivory Coast are narrowly favored despite the market's firm backing of Norway. The decisive tradeoff is between the unified bookmaker consensus pricing Norway at roughly 47% and the directly comparable head-to-head evidence against shared opposition: Ivory Coast beat France 2-1 away, while Norway conceded four at home to the same France side. Ivory Coast's eight wins in ten matches against varied opponent strength, including a World Cup victory over Ecuador, outweigh Norway's five wins largely accumulated against weaker sides such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. However, Ivory Coast's five clean sheets were predominantly against lower-ranked teams, and Norway's market support is stable with no drift, so confidence is modest. A 1-1 draw remains the single most probable exact scoreline, but Ivory Coast's aggregate win probability across all scorelines edges ahead of both Norway and the draw.

Bet
Bet portfolio$9103 bets
Net P&L-$910
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $340
    odds 3.69Settled: loss-$340

    Betting rationale：Value bet on Ivory Coast at 3.690 (+0.099 edge). The shared-opponent evidence is decisive: Ivory Coast beat France 2-1 away while Norway conceded four at home to the same France side. The market prices Norway as a firm favorite (~47%), but direct comparable results suggest Ivory Coast are at least equal, if not superior. Norway's defense is leaky (4 conceded vs France, 2 vs Senegal), while Ivory Coast bring knockout-grade compactness. The payout asymmetry at 3.69x for a team with a legitimate wi

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,312

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $330
    odds 3.50Settled: loss-$330

    Betting rationale：I already hold two Ivory Coast side_a_win positions (580 USD total at odds 3.69/3.59), backing the underdog's momentum and defensive discipline. The draw is the highest-value execution side: +4.4% edge at Pinnacle's 3.500, and +5.4% vs the best market price. The model assigns 33% draw probability vs 28.6% implied at execution odds — the tightest probability gap between any two outcomes. With Ivory Coast's 3 clean sheets in 5 and 0.6 goals conceded per match, plus Norway's leaky defence and no cl

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,312

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Home win

    $240
    odds 3.59Settled: loss-$240

    Betting rationale：Adding to existing Ivory Coast position. The model shows +4.1% edge on side_a_win at Pinnacle's 3.590, the only positive execution edge across all three outcomes. Norway is over-backed by bookmakers at 2.180 despite defensive fragility (1-4 vs France, 3-2 vs Senegal) and Nordic players facing 31.8°C Dallas heat that favors tropical-adapted Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast's defensive discipline (3 clean sheets, 3 goals conceded in 5) can frustrate Norway's attacking intent in a knockout match where caut

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,312

Post-match result1-2
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 37%Draw 28%Away win 35%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #11-1
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus across 12 observed bookmaker samples is remarkably aligned on Norway around 2.00–2.03 with no meaningful divergence, and implied-probability movement over the capture window is near zero (+0.06pp for Ivory Coast, −0.03pp each for draw and Norway), so the market shows no sign of shifting toward Ivory Coast or the draw. Ivory Coast's recent form (8W-1D-1L) is strong but the market does not reflect it as a threat to Norway's favored status, likely weighting Norway's World Cup gro
  • - From the recent-form-quality perspective, Ivory Coast have proven they can beat top-level opponents such as France away, while Norway conceded four goals at home to the same France side, indicating a clear gap in performance against strong teams. Ivory Coast's only loss was a narrow 1-2 defeat to Germany, whereas Norway's defeats include a heavy 1-4 home loss to France and a 1-2 away loss to the Netherlands. Norway's win rate of 50 percent is inflated by victories over Iraq, Kazakhstan, Finland
  • - Ivory Coast conceded only six goals in ten recent matches with five clean sheets, indicating defensive consistency that contrasts with Norway's twelve goals conceded and high-volatility scorelines such as 1-4 versus France and 3-2 versus Senegal. This defensive gap supports a tighter contest than the market's heavy Norway favouritism (47%) implies, making a draw plausible. However, Ivory Coast's clean-sheet record was primarily against lower-ranked opponents, and head-to-head data and lineups ar

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 31.0%; draw 35.0%; Ecuador win 34.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivo
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 30.0%; draw 38.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuado
  • - Recall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.73. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 20.0%; Norway win 73.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Evide
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.64Log loss 1.05

Meta thinking

  • market odds consensusWith 12 observed odds captured, examine the closing/pre-match market consensus for Ivory Coast vs Norway, checking for any divergence among bookmakers that may signal uneven confidence or value on one side.
  • recent form qualityCompare the strength of recent opponents and result quality: Ivory Coast beat France and Ecuador but lost to Germany; Norway beat Iraq and Senegal but conceded four against France. Assess whether recent win rates mask differing opponent levels.
  • defensive profile and scoreline volatilityIvory Coast's recent scorelines show narrow wins with zero or one goal conceded, suggesting defensive compactness. Norway's results include a 1-4 loss to France and a 3-2 win over Senegal, indicating higher scoreline volatility. Investigate whether defensive consistency or leakiness is a distinguishable factor.

Tokens: 2357

Perspectives

market odds consensusAway winThe odds consensus across 12 observed bookmaker samples is remarkably aligned on Norway around 2.00–2.03 with no meaningful divergence, and implied-probability movement over the capture window is near zero (+0.06pp for Ivory Coast, −0.03pp each for draw and Norway), so the market shows no sign of shifting toward Ivory Coast or the draw. Ivory Coast's recent form (8W-1D-1L) is strong but the market does not reflect it as a threat to Norway's favored status, likely weighting Norway's World Cup gro45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds consensus

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.3%, draw 26.8%, side B win 47%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T08:15:08Z -> 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.06pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.4 / side B 2 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 2; bet365 side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.55, side B 2.02; william_hill: side A 3.5, draw 3.5, side B 2; bet365: side A 3.75, draw 3.5, side B 2; marathonbet: side A 3.7, draw 3.68, side B 2.03. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. The odds consensus across 12 observed bookmaker samples is remarkably aligned on Norway around 2.00–2.03 with no meaningful divergence, and implied-probability movement over the capture window is near zero (+0.06pp for Ivory Coast, −0.03pp each for draw and Norway), so the market shows no sign of shifting toward Ivory Coast or the draw. Ivory Coast's recent form (8W-1D-1L) is strong but the market does not reflect it as a threat to Norway's favored status, likely weighting Norway's World Cup gro

Conclusion note

The 12-bookmaker market consensus firmly favors Norway at an implied 47% probability, with Ivory Coast at 26.3% and the draw at 26.8%; odds are consistent across bookmakers (Norway priced 2.00–2.03 everywhere) and show negligible movement over the capture window, indicating stable and unified confidence in Norway as the stronger side despite Ivory Coast's impressive 8-win-1-draw-1-loss recent form.

recent form qualityHome winFrom the recent-form-quality perspective, Ivory Coast have proven they can beat top-level opponents such as France away, while Norway conceded four goals at home to the same France side, indicating a clear gap in performance against strong teams. Ivory Coast's only loss was a narrow 1-2 defeat to Germany, whereas Norway's defeats include a heavy 1-4 home loss to France and a 1-2 away loss to the Netherlands. Norway's win rate of 50 percent is inflated by victories over Iraq, Kazakhstan, Finland45%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent form quality

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.3%, draw 26.8%, side B win 47%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T08:15:08Z -> 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.06pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.4 / side B 2 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 2; bet365 side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.55, side B 2.02; william_hill: side A 3.5, draw 3.5, side B 2; bet365: side A 3.75, draw 3.5, side B 2; marathonbet: side A 3.7, draw 3.68, side B 2.03. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. From the recent-form-quality perspective, Ivory Coast have proven they can beat top-level opponents such as France away, while Norway conceded four goals at home to the same France side, indicating a clear gap in performance against strong teams. Ivory Coast's only loss was a narrow 1-2 defeat to Germany, whereas Norway's defeats include a heavy 1-4 home loss to France and a 1-2 away loss to the Netherlands. Norway's win rate of 50 percent is inflated by victories over Iraq, Kazakhstan, Finland

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast's recent form quality is superior when opponent strength is accounted for: they beat France 2-1 away and Ecuador 1-0 in the World Cup, and only lost narrowly 1-2 to Germany, whereas Norway beat Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2 but were thrashed 1-4 at home by France, showing defensive vulnerability against strong opposition. Norway's five wins in ten matches largely came against weaker sides, masking a softer underlying quality compared to Ivory Coast's eight wins in ten against a broader range of opponent levels.

defensive profile and scoreline volatilityDrawIvory Coast conceded only six goals in ten recent matches with five clean sheets, indicating defensive consistency that contrasts with Norway's twelve goals conceded and high-volatility scorelines such as 1-4 versus France and 3-2 versus Senegal. This defensive gap supports a tighter contest than the market's heavy Norway favouritism (47%) implies, making a draw plausible. However, Ivory Coast's clean-sheet record was primarily against lower-ranked opponents, and head-to-head data and lineups ar35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    defensive profile and scoreline volatility

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs NOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-30T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Norway: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 26.3%, draw 26.8%, side B win 47%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-29T08:15:08Z -> 2026-06-29T12:04:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.06pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.03pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02 → side A 3.45 / draw 3.55 / side B 2.02; william_hill side A 3.6 / draw 3.4 / side B 2 → side A 3.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 2; bet365 side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2 → side A 3.75 / draw 3.5 / side B 2. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.45, draw 3.55, side B 2.02; william_hill: side A 3.5, draw 3.5, side B 2; bet365: side A 3.75, draw 3.5, side B 2; marathonbet: side A 3.7, draw 3.68, side B 2.03. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Norway:

    • 2026-06-26T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against France, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-23T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Senegal, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2026-06-16T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iraq, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-01T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Sweden, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-09-04T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.

  10. Ivory Coast conceded only six goals in ten recent matches with five clean sheets, indicating defensive consistency that contrasts with Norway's twelve goals conceded and high-volatility scorelines such as 1-4 versus France and 3-2 versus Senegal. This defensive gap supports a tighter contest than the market's heavy Norway favouritism (47%) implies, making a draw plausible. However, Ivory Coast's clean-sheet record was primarily against lower-ranked opponents, and head-to-head data and lineups ar

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast's recent record shows defensive compactness with five clean sheets and only six goals conceded across ten matches, while Norway has conceded twelve goals in the same span including a 1-4 loss to France and a 3-2 win over Senegal that highlight scoreline volatility, suggesting Ivory Coast can keep this match tighter than the odds-implied 47% Norway win probability. However, Ivory Coast's defensive numbers were largely built against weaker opposition, and Norway remains the clear market favourite at 47% implied probability, so a draw rather than an Ivory Coast win is the more defensible outcome from this defensive-volatility angle.

Synthesis

Ivory Coast are narrowly favored despite the market's firm backing of Norway. The decisive tradeoff is between the unified bookmaker consensus pricing Norway at roughly 47% and the directly comparable head-to-head evidence against shared opposition: Ivory Coast beat France 2-1 away, while Norway conceded four at home to the same France side. Ivory Coast's eight wins in ten matches against varied opponent strength, including a World Cup victory over Ecuador, outweigh Norway's five wins largely accumulated against weaker sides such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. However, Ivory Coast's five clean sheets were predominantly against lower-ranked teams, and Norway's market support is stable with no drift, so confidence is modest. A 1-1 draw remains the single most probable exact scoreline, but Ivory Coast's aggregate win probability across all scorelines edges ahead of both Norway and the draw.

Reasoning summary: Three perspectives diverge: the market consensus strongly favors Norway at 47% implied probability with no odds movement; the recent-form perspective favors Ivory Coast, citing their away win over France and World Cup win over Ecuador contrasted with Norway's 1-4 home loss to France and wins over weaker opposition; the defensive-volatility perspective leans draw, noting Ivory Coast's five clean sheets versus Norway's twelve goals conceded but acknowledging Ivory Coast's defensive record came aga

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 31.0%; draw 35.0%; Ecuador win 34.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivorelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Actionable editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.38. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 30.0%; draw 38.0%; Ecuador win 32.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuadorelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iraq vs Norway Late editionRecall anchors: irq nor group_i_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Norway win with confidence 0.73. Probability distribution: Iraq win 7.0%; draw 20.0%; Norway win 73.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iraq 0-2 Norway, Iraq 0-1 Norway, Iraq 1-2 Norway. Eviderelevance 0.50