GLM-5.1 · Germany vs Ivory Coast

GermanyvsIvory Coast
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win62%Hit
BetBet portfolio$460Bet portfolio
Post-match result2-1
Net P&L-$90.4
PredictionConfidence: 62%
Home win

All three perspectives converge on a Germany win, anchored by stable bookmaker consensus at roughly 62% implied probability and no detected odds movement. Germany's recent competitive Nations League victories over Netherlands and Bosnia & Herzegovina carry more weight than Ivory Coast's friendly win over France and moderate African opposition. Germany averages three goals per match compared to Ivory Coast's 1.5, and while Ivory Coast concedes only 0.6 goals per game with several tight-margin clean-sheet wins, the offensive differential is the decisive factor. The main uncertainty comes from Ivory Coast's defensive consistency and ability to keep matches close, which supports a modest draw probability but does not overturn Germany's overall edge.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4603 bets
Net P&L-$90.4
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $240
    odds 1.54Settled: win+$129.6

    Betting rationale：Germany are on a 5-win streak averaging ~3 goals/game (7-1 vs Curaçao, 4-0 vs Finland). Ivory Coast also unbeaten but against softer opposition with tighter margins. Model gives Germany 62% but execution price 1.540 implies ~65%, yielding -2.9% edge. Pure value is negative, yet the football script is compelling: Germany's firepower should overwhelm Ivory Coast's compact defense. Taking a normal playable conviction stance at ~3% of balance, accepting the thin price as cost of backing a dominant s

    Payout: $369.6 · Balance after: $8,248.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $140
    odds 4.75Settled: loss-$140

    Betting rationale：Portfolio hedge on the draw – the only uncovered 1X2 outcome in my existing positions ($240 Germany, $80 Ivory Coast). A draw result currently loses both open bets ($320 total), so a draw hedge at 4.750 closes that gap. The draw carries the best model edge (+0.019 vs execution) and Ivory Coast's compactness and nine-match unbeaten run make the draw trap credible at a neutral Toronto venue. Germany's attacking pressure vs Ivory Coast's resilience is exactly the script that produces stalemates. St

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,248.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $80
    odds 5.86Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Already holding $240 on Germany at 1.540, but the model edge on Germany is negative (-0.049) vs execution — adding more Germany exposure is poor value. Ivory Coast offers a thin positive edge (+0.009) and much better payout asymmetry at 5.860. The match script supports a hedge: Ivory Coast's five straight wins conceded only 3 goals, including a credible 2-1 away win over France — the toughest single opponent either side faced. Germany's defensive cracks (4-3 vs Switzerland) and goal inflation (7

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,248.5

Post-match result2-1
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 62%Draw 21%Away win 17%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - Fourteen odds samples across ten update points converge on a Germany win at roughly 62% implied probability with minimal bookmaker divergence—the Germany win line is clustered between 1.53 and 1.55, and the Ivory Coast win line ranges from 5.0 to 5.85, showing modest variation only on the less-favored side. No odds movement was recorded between the two visible timestamps, indicating stable market conviction. Germany's recent form is strong and the venue is neutral (Toronto) rather than a traditi
  • - Both teams enter on five-match winning streaks, but opposition quality analysis reveals a meaningful difference: Germany's Nations League wins against Netherlands and Bosnia & Herzegovina provide competitive proof against strong European opponents, whereas Ivory Coast's best recent result—a friendly win over France—carries less weight than competitive fixtures, and their AFCON wins against Gabon, Cameroon and Mozambique are against moderate African opposition. The odds consensus at 61.8% for Ger
  • - From a goal-output and defensive-consistency lens, Germany's 3.0 goals-per-match average over ten games dwarfs Ivory Coast's 1.5 average, and Germany's 0.9 conceded-per-match is only marginally worse than Ivory Coast's 0.6, meaning Germany's offensive edge far outweighs Ivory Coast's slight defensive advantage. The bookmaker consensus at 62% for Germany aligns with this form differential, but Ivory Coast's string of tight-margin wins and clean sheets introduces enough uncertainty to cap confiden

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Germany win 90.0%; draw 6.0%; Curaçao win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 5-
  • - Recall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 2-0 Curaçao, Germ
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 31.0%; draw 35.0%; Ecuador win 34.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivo
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.22Log loss 0.48

Meta thinking

  • Market odds implied expectationsAnalyze 14 captured odds observations to assess implied probability distributions, consensus levels, and any divergence in market confidence between Germany and Ivory Coast.
  • Recent form opposition qualityCompare each team's five-match winning streak by weighing the competitive level and strength of opponents faced, distinguishing World Cup results from friendlies and evaluating whether opposition quality reveals meaningful form differences.
  • Goal output and defensive consistencyExamine scoring patterns and defensive records across recent matches, noting Germany's high-scoring wins (7-1, 4-0, 4-3) versus Ivory Coast's tighter margins (1-0, 2-1) to investigate whether offensive firepower or defensive resilience may differentiate the sides.

Tokens: 2870

Perspectives

Market odds implied expectationsHome winFourteen odds samples across ten update points converge on a Germany win at roughly 62% implied probability with minimal bookmaker divergence—the Germany win line is clustered between 1.53 and 1.55, and the Ivory Coast win line ranges from 5.0 to 5.85, showing modest variation only on the less-favored side. No odds movement was recorded between the two visible timestamps, indicating stable market conviction. Germany's recent form is strong and the venue is neutral (Toronto) rather than a traditi65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied expectations

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Germany vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Germany: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Germany: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-19T16:15:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 61.8%, draw 21.3%, side B win 16.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-19T12:03:34Z -> 2026-06-19T16:15:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.55 / draw 4.35 / side B 5.1 → side A 1.55 / draw 4.35 / side B 5.1; william_hill side A 1.53 / draw 4.2 / side B 5 → side A 1.53 / draw 4.2 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.53 / draw 4.33 / side B 5.75 → side A 1.53 / draw 4.33 / side B 5.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.55, draw 4.35, side B 5.1; william_hill: side A 1.53, draw 4.2, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.53, draw 4.33, side B 5.75; marathonbet: side A 1.53, draw 4.6, side B 5.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Germany:

    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away home, score 7-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Fourteen odds samples across ten update points converge on a Germany win at roughly 62% implied probability with minimal bookmaker divergence—the Germany win line is clustered between 1.53 and 1.55, and the Ivory Coast win line ranges from 5.0 to 5.85, showing modest variation only on the less-favored side. No odds movement was recorded between the two visible timestamps, indicating stable market conviction. Germany's recent form is strong and the venue is neutral (Toronto) rather than a traditi

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker odds observations show a tight consensus around Germany winning, with implied probabilities of 61.8% for Germany, 21.3% for a draw, and 16.9% for Ivory Coast, and no divergence or movement detected across the latest update window. Germany's recent form of eight wins and two draws in ten matches, including a 7-1 World Cup win over Curaçao, reinforces the market's expectation, while Ivory Coast's seven wins in ten also suggest competitiveness but against generally weaker opposition.

Recent form opposition qualityHome winBoth teams enter on five-match winning streaks, but opposition quality analysis reveals a meaningful difference: Germany's Nations League wins against Netherlands and Bosnia & Herzegovina provide competitive proof against strong European opponents, whereas Ivory Coast's best recent result—a friendly win over France—carries less weight than competitive fixtures, and their AFCON wins against Gabon, Cameroon and Mozambique are against moderate African opposition. The odds consensus at 61.8% for Ger62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form opposition quality

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Germany vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Germany: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Germany: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-19T16:15:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 61.8%, draw 21.3%, side B win 16.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-19T12:03:34Z -> 2026-06-19T16:15:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.55 / draw 4.35 / side B 5.1 → side A 1.55 / draw 4.35 / side B 5.1; william_hill side A 1.53 / draw 4.2 / side B 5 → side A 1.53 / draw 4.2 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.53 / draw 4.33 / side B 5.75 → side A 1.53 / draw 4.33 / side B 5.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.55, draw 4.35, side B 5.1; william_hill: side A 1.53, draw 4.2, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.53, draw 4.33, side B 5.75; marathonbet: side A 1.53, draw 4.6, side B 5.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Germany:

    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away home, score 7-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Both teams enter on five-match winning streaks, but opposition quality analysis reveals a meaningful difference: Germany's Nations League wins against Netherlands and Bosnia & Herzegovina provide competitive proof against strong European opponents, whereas Ivory Coast's best recent result—a friendly win over France—carries less weight than competitive fixtures, and their AFCON wins against Gabon, Cameroon and Mozambique are against moderate African opposition. The odds consensus at 61.8% for Ger

Conclusion note

Germany's recent five-match winning streak includes a 7-1 World Cup win over Curaçao and friendlies against USA, Finland, Ghana and Switzerland, while their prior Nations League results show wins against Netherlands and Bosnia & Herzegovina against stronger competitive opposition; Ivory Coast have also won five straight, including a notable friendly win over France and a World Cup 1-0 win over Ecuador, but their other victories came against moderate opponents like Scotland, South Korea and Gabon, and friendlies are less reliable form indicators than Germany's competitive Nations League matches against European sides.

Goal output and defensive consistencyHome winFrom a goal-output and defensive-consistency lens, Germany's 3.0 goals-per-match average over ten games dwarfs Ivory Coast's 1.5 average, and Germany's 0.9 conceded-per-match is only marginally worse than Ivory Coast's 0.6, meaning Germany's offensive edge far outweighs Ivory Coast's slight defensive advantage. The bookmaker consensus at 62% for Germany aligns with this form differential, but Ivory Coast's string of tight-margin wins and clean sheets introduces enough uncertainty to cap confiden65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Goal output and defensive consistency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Fixture: Germany vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Germany: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Germany: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-19T16:15:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 61.8%, draw 21.3%, side B win 16.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-19T12:03:34Z -> 2026-06-19T16:15:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.55 / draw 4.35 / side B 5.1 → side A 1.55 / draw 4.35 / side B 5.1; william_hill side A 1.53 / draw 4.2 / side B 5 → side A 1.53 / draw 4.2 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.53 / draw 4.33 / side B 5.75 → side A 1.53 / draw 4.33 / side B 5.75. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.55, draw 4.35, side B 5.1; william_hill: side A 1.53, draw 4.2, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.53, draw 4.33, side B 5.75; marathonbet: side A 1.53, draw 4.6, side B 5.85. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.07 / under 6.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Germany:

    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Curaçao, home/away home, score 7-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-06T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Finland, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-30T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T19:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 4-3, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. From a goal-output and defensive-consistency lens, Germany's 3.0 goals-per-match average over ten games dwarfs Ivory Coast's 1.5 average, and Germany's 0.9 conceded-per-match is only marginally worse than Ivory Coast's 0.6, meaning Germany's offensive edge far outweighs Ivory Coast's slight defensive advantage. The bookmaker consensus at 62% for Germany aligns with this form differential, but Ivory Coast's string of tight-margin wins and clean sheets introduces enough uncertainty to cap confiden

Conclusion note

Germany's recent scoring output averages three goals per match with notable high-scoring wins over Curaçao (7-1) and Finland (4-0), while Ivory Coast averages just 1.5 goals per match and tends to win by tight margins such as 1-0 against Ecuador and Scotland, making Germany's offensive firepower the likely differentiator even though Ivory Coast concedes only 0.6 goals per game. Odds consensus assigns Germany roughly 62% implied win probability, consistent with this form gap.

Synthesis

All three perspectives converge on a Germany win, anchored by stable bookmaker consensus at roughly 62% implied probability and no detected odds movement. Germany's recent competitive Nations League victories over Netherlands and Bosnia & Herzegovina carry more weight than Ivory Coast's friendly win over France and moderate African opposition. Germany averages three goals per match compared to Ivory Coast's 1.5, and while Ivory Coast concedes only 0.6 goals per game with several tight-margin clean-sheet wins, the offensive differential is the decisive factor. The main uncertainty comes from Ivory Coast's defensive consistency and ability to keep matches close, which supports a modest draw probability but does not overturn Germany's overall edge.

Reasoning summary: Germany are favoured across market odds, opposition-quality analysis and goal-output metrics, with all three perspectives picking a Germany win at confidence levels between 0.62 and 0.65. The bookmaker consensus of roughly 62% for a Germany win is stable with minimal divergence. Germany's competitive Nations League results against stronger European sides provide more reliable form evidence than Ivory Coast's friendlies and moderate AFCON opposition. Germany's three-goals-per-match average far ex

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Germany vs Curaçao Late editionRecall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Germany win 90.0%; draw 6.0%; Curaçao win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 5-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Germany vs Curaçao Actionable editionRecall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 2-0 Curaçao, Germrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 31.0%; draw 35.0%; Ecuador win 34.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivorelevance 0.50