MiMo V2.5 Pro · Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Ivory CoastvsEcuador
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionDraw37%Miss
BetDraw$600Aligned
Post-match result1-0
Net P&L-$600
PredictionConfidence: 37%
Draw

Ivory Coast face Ecuador in a World Cup group stage match where Ecuador holds a slight edge in FIFA rankings and market odds, but their recent form is dominated by draws, including against top teams like Netherlands and Argentina. Ivory Coast have been in excellent form with wins over France and South Korea, creating a close contest that points to a draw as the most likely outcome.

Bet
Draw$6002 bets
Net P&L-$600
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Draw

    $400
    odds 2.91Settled: loss-$400

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Cautious opener value play. Match script: Classic World Cup group stage opener between two disciplined sides. Ecuador's 70% draw rate in recent quality matches (drew Netherlands 1-1, Morocco 1-1) signals they're built for tight, low-risk encounters. Ivory Coast have shown explosive ability (France win, South Korea 4-0) but this profile often meets a wall in structured World Cup openers. Both teams will respect each other, leading to a cagey, low-event affair. Value analysis: Mo

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,110.2

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Draw

    $200
    odds 2.92Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Draw posture with match script support: Ecuador's recent form is draw-heavy (vs Netherlands, Morocco), Ivory Coast in strong form but facing a disciplined opponent. World Cup group stage opener incentives favor caution from both sides. Model gives draw 37% probability with +0.028 edge at 2.920 execution odds. Adding $200 to existing $400 draw position for total ~6% bankroll exposure, reflecting strong conviction on a cagey, evenly-matched contest.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,110.2

Post-match result1-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Draw
Home win 28%Draw 37%Away win 35%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #11-1
  2. #20-0
  3. #32-2

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff is between Ecuador's higher FIFA ranking and slight market favoritism on one hand, and Ivory Coast's outstanding recent form including wins over France and South Korea on the other. Ecuador's persistent draw pattern across their last ten matches—against strong CONMEBOL and European opponents—combined with competitive draw odds at 33.3% and odds movement toward Ivory Coast (+1.96pp), suggests the most defensible outcome is a draw, though missing lineup and head-to-h
  • - The market prices Ecuador as slight favorites but the draw at 33.3% is nearly as likely, and this aligns closely with Ecuador's extraordinary draw tendency of 70% over their last ten matches. Ivory Coast's recent quality wins over France and Scotland explain the market movement in their favor, suggesting neither side holds a decisive edge. Given the convergence of high draw pricing and Ecuador's draw-heavy pattern, the draw is the most market-consistent pick at moderate confidence.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.78Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalDrawThe decisive evidence tradeoff is between Ecuador's higher FIFA ranking and slight market favoritism on one hand, and Ivory Coast's outstanding recent form including wins over France and South Korea on the other. Ecuador's persistent draw pattern across their last ten matches—against strong CONMEBOL and European opponents—combined with competitive draw odds at 33.3% and odds movement toward Ivory Coast (+1.96pp), suggests the most defensible outcome is a draw, though missing lineup and head-to-h37%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.8%, draw 33.3%, side B win 37.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.96pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -1.78pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.2 / draw 2.82 / side B 2.52; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.4 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.55. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.2, draw 2.82, side B 2.52; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 2.75, side B 2.55; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.17 / under 5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T18:02:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 30.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 50%, wind 19.5 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ivory Coast's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 34. points 1532.98; previous rank 37; previous points 1522.48; rated matches 67; confederation CAF.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ecuador's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 23. points 1594.78; previous rank 23; previous points 1591.73; rated matches 57; confederation CONMEBOL.

  13. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  14. The decisive evidence tradeoff is between Ecuador's higher FIFA ranking and slight market favoritism on one hand, and Ivory Coast's outstanding recent form including wins over France and South Korea on the other. Ecuador's persistent draw pattern across their last ten matches—against strong CONMEBOL and European opponents—combined with competitive draw odds at 33.3% and odds movement toward Ivory Coast (+1.96pp), suggests the most defensible outcome is a draw, though missing lineup and head-to-h

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast face Ecuador at Philadelphia Stadium in a World Cup group stage match where the bookmaker consensus gives Ecuador a slight edge at 37.9% implied win probability versus 28.8% for Ivory Coast, but Ecuador's recent form shows a striking draw-heavy pattern with six draws in their last ten matches including against Netherlands, Morocco, Mexico, USA, and Argentina, while Ivory Coast have won seven of their last ten with notable scalps against France and South Korea. The draw at 33.3% implied probability captures the tension between Ecuador's higher FIFA ranking (23rd vs 34th) and Ivory Coast's superior recent winning run, though the absence of confirmed lineups and head-to-head records adds uncertainty to this closely priced fixture.

marketDrawThe market prices Ecuador as slight favorites but the draw at 33.3% is nearly as likely, and this aligns closely with Ecuador's extraordinary draw tendency of 70% over their last ten matches. Ivory Coast's recent quality wins over France and Scotland explain the market movement in their favor, suggesting neither side holds a decisive edge. Given the convergence of high draw pricing and Ecuador's draw-heavy pattern, the draw is the most market-consistent pick at moderate confidence.36%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.8%, draw 33.3%, side B win 37.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.96pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -1.78pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.2 / draw 2.82 / side B 2.52; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.4 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.55. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.2, draw 2.82, side B 2.52; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 2.75, side B 2.55; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.17 / under 5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T18:02:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 30.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 50%, wind 19.5 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.8%, draw 33.3%, side B win 37.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.96pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -1.78pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.2 / draw 2.82 / side B 2.52; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.4 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.55. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.2, draw 2.82, side B 2.52; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 2.75, side B 2.55; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.17 / under 5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market prices Ecuador as slight favorites but the draw at 33.3% is nearly as likely, and this aligns closely with Ecuador's extraordinary draw tendency of 70% over their last ten matches. Ivory Coast's recent quality wins over France and Scotland explain the market movement in their favor, suggesting neither side holds a decisive edge. Given the convergence of high draw pricing and Ecuador's draw-heavy pattern, the draw is the most market-consistent pick at moderate confidence.

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus gives Ecuador a slight edge at 37.9% implied win probability versus Ivory Coast's 28.8%, but the draw is priced almost as likely at 33.3%, and market movement over the last two days has shifted +1.96 percentage points toward Ivory Coast, suggesting bettors see value in the African side. Ecuador's recent form is remarkably draw-heavy with seven draws in their last ten matches including stalemates against the Netherlands, Morocco, Argentina, Mexico, and the USA, while Ivory Coast have been in strong form with wins over France, Scotland, and South Korea, making a competitive draw the most defensible market-aligned outcome.

Synthesis

Ivory Coast face Ecuador in a World Cup group stage match where Ecuador holds a slight edge in FIFA rankings and market odds, but their recent form is dominated by draws, including against top teams like Netherlands and Argentina. Ivory Coast have been in excellent form with wins over France and South Korea, creating a close contest that points to a draw as the most likely outcome.

Reasoning summary: Both the rational and market perspectives agree on a draw, citing Ecuador's draw-heavy recent pattern and Ivory Coast's strong wins over quality opponents, with market odds closely pricing this balance.