Kimi K2.6 · Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Ivory CoastvsEcuador
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionAway win50%Miss
BetBet portfolio$640Aligned
Post-match result1-0
Net P&L-$640
PredictionConfidence: 50%
Away win

Ecuador is favored by the bookmaker consensus and holds an unbeaten run in recent friendlies, while Ivory Coast's form includes losses against stronger opposition and wins against weaker African Cup sides that may not fully translate to World Cup group-stage level. However, the absence of head-to-head data and the lack of confirmed lineups leave meaningful uncertainty, and Ivory Coast's respectable recent results mean an Ecuador win is not strongly assured.

Bet
Bet portfolio$6402 bets
Net P&L-$640
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $390
    odds 2.63Settled: loss-$390

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with value edge. Match script: Ecuador arrives unbeaten in friendlies with clean defensive displays, while Ivory Coast's recent wins came against weaker African opposition and a draw with Cameroon. The model gives Ecuador a 50% win probability and a +0.120 edge over execution odds (2.630 at Pinnacle). There's no head-to-head or lineup data to contradict the favorite momentum, and the low altitude in Philadelphia won't hinder the South American side. I'm backing Ecuad

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,975.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Draw

    $250
    odds 2.92Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：I already hold a side_b_win position on Ecuador at 2.630, but the model's strongest edge is on the draw (+0.038 at 2.920 Pinnacle) with a 0.380 probability—higher than either win probability. The match script supports this: both teams are in strong form and unlikely to open up recklessly in a hot, windy evening in Philadelphia. Ivory Coast's recent wins came against varied opposition but not in World Cup intensity, while Ecuador's unbeaten streak is built on solidity rather than dominance. With

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,975.3

Post-match result1-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 28%Draw 22%Away win 50%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-1
  2. #21-1
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence is the odds consensus favoring Ecuador and Ecuador's longer unbeaten run against more competitive opponents, balanced by Ivory Coast's decent African Cup form and the absence of head-to-head data, which leaves some uncertainty.
  • - The decisive factor is the odds consensus favoring Ecuador, supported by their recent unbeaten friendly form and the market trend toward an Ecuador win. Ivory Coast's recent results are respectable but come against varied opposition, and without head-to-head or lineup data to contradict the market, the odds-based edge for Ecuador is the most reliable signal.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.82Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalAway winThe decisive evidence is the odds consensus favoring Ecuador and Ecuador's longer unbeaten run against more competitive opponents, balanced by Ivory Coast's decent African Cup form and the absence of head-to-head data, which leaves some uncertainty.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.9%, draw 33.4%, side B win 37.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +2.09pp, draw -0.08pp, side B win -2.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.54; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.25, draw 2.8, side B 2.54; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.25, draw 2.75, side B 2.6; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.13 / under 5.75; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. The decisive evidence is the odds consensus favoring Ecuador and Ecuador's longer unbeaten run against more competitive opponents, balanced by Ivory Coast's decent African Cup form and the absence of head-to-head data, which leaves some uncertainty.

Conclusion note

Ecuador is favored by the bookmaker consensus, which prices an Ecuador win at an implied probability near 38 percent compared with roughly 29 percent for Ivory Coast. Ecuador also arrives unbeaten in its last eight fixtures, while Ivory Coast's recent wins came against weaker opposition and it lost two of its last five.

marketAway winThe decisive factor is the odds consensus favoring Ecuador, supported by their recent unbeaten friendly form and the market trend toward an Ecuador win. Ivory Coast's recent results are respectable but come against varied opposition, and without head-to-head or lineup data to contradict the market, the odds-based edge for Ecuador is the most reliable signal.62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.9%, draw 33.4%, side B win 37.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +2.09pp, draw -0.08pp, side B win -2.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.54; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.25, draw 2.8, side B 2.54; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.25, draw 2.75, side B 2.6; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.13 / under 5.75; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. The decisive factor is the odds consensus favoring Ecuador, supported by their recent unbeaten friendly form and the market trend toward an Ecuador win. Ivory Coast's recent results are respectable but come against varied opposition, and without head-to-head or lineup data to contradict the market, the odds-based edge for Ecuador is the most reliable signal.

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus makes Ecuador the favorite with an 37.7% implied win probability versus Ivory Coast's 28.9%, and recent market movement has slightly shortened Ecuador's price while lengthening Ivory Coast's. Ecuador also holds an unbeaten run in their last six friendlies, whereas Ivory Coast's form is strong but built partly on Africa Cup of Nations opposition that may not translate directly to World Cup group-stage level.

Synthesis

Ecuador is favored by the bookmaker consensus and holds an unbeaten run in recent friendlies, while Ivory Coast's form includes losses against stronger opposition and wins against weaker African Cup sides that may not fully translate to World Cup group-stage level. However, the absence of head-to-head data and the lack of confirmed lineups leave meaningful uncertainty, and Ivory Coast's respectable recent results mean an Ecuador win is not strongly assured.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives converge on Ecuador as the favorite, driven by odds-implied probability and an unbeaten friendly run, while noting Ivory Coast's mixed form and the uncertainty from missing head-to-head and lineup information. The evidence is directionally consistent but not strong enough to justify high confidence.