GLM-5.1 · Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Ivory CoastvsEcuador
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionDraw38%Miss
BetBet portfolio$610Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-0
Net P&L+$0.2
PredictionConfidence: 38%
Draw

The draw is the most defensible outcome because Ecuador have finished level in seven of their last ten matches, an 70% draw rate that dwarfs any other single-result tendency in this fixture. Ivory Coast arrive in strong winning form with eight victories in ten, including a notable 2-1 away win against France, and the market has shifted toward them across all three sampled bookmakers over the past two days. However, Ecuador's consistent inability to either win or lose matches—even against varied opposition—makes a stalemate the single highest-probability result even though Ivory Coast's momentum keeps the visitors' win probability close behind. Ecuador's low recent win rate of just 30% and Ivory Coast's upward market correction together suppress Ecuador's win likelihood to the smallest of the three outcomes.

Bet
Bet portfolio$6102 bets
Net P&L+$0.2
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Draw

    $430
    odds 2.91Settled: loss-$430

    Betting rationale：Draw posture. Ecuador have drawn 7 of their last 10 matches (70% draw rate), including stalemates against Netherlands and Morocco — a structural tendency that transcends opponent quality. Ivory Coast arrive with strong momentum (8 wins/10, beat France away), which pushes the market toward the away side and inflates Ecuador's win price, but that same Ivory Coast pressure will likely encounter Ecuador's compact, risk-averse shape in a cagey group-stage opener. The draw at Pinnacle 2.91 carries +3.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $10,120.2

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Home win

    $180
    odds 3.39Settled: win+$430.2

    Betting rationale：Portfolio hedge alongside existing $430 draw position. Ivory Coast carry the best model edge (+0.015 at execution odds 3.390) and their recent form is impressive — wins over France 2-1, Scotland 1-0, and South Korea 4-0 signal real attacking threat. The market prices Ivory Coast as the least likely outcome (~29.5% implied), but the model assigns 31.0%, creating a small value gap. With draw already covered, a modest side_a hedge diversifies exposure: draw pays the existing stake, Ivory Coast win

    Payout: $610.2 · Balance after: $10,730.4

Post-match result1-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Draw
Home win 30%Draw 38%Away win 32%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #11-1
  2. #20-0
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The draw is the most probable single outcome by odds consensus (33.4%) and is reinforced by Ecuador's extraordinary recent draw rate of 80%, though Ivory Coast's strong winning form—particularly the away win against France—introduces meaningful uncertainty that keeps confidence moderate rather than high.
  • - The market perspective reveals a notable correction: Ivory Coast's implied probability rose by 2.09 percentage points while Ecuador's fell by 2.01, with every sampled bookmaker moving in the same direction. Ivory Coast's recent form of eight wins in ten matches, including convincing results against France and South Korea, provides a results-based anchor that the market appears to be pricing in late. Ecuador's unbeaten streak (three wins, seven draws) keeps draw risk elevated at 33.4%, but their
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.74Log loss 1.20

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalDrawThe draw is the most probable single outcome by odds consensus (33.4%) and is reinforced by Ecuador's extraordinary recent draw rate of 80%, though Ivory Coast's strong winning form—particularly the away win against France—introduces meaningful uncertainty that keeps confidence moderate rather than high.38%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.9%, draw 33.4%, side B win 37.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +2.09pp, draw -0.08pp, side B win -2.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.54; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.25, draw 2.8, side B 2.54; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.25, draw 2.75, side B 2.6; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.13 / under 5.75; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. The draw is the most probable single outcome by odds consensus (33.4%) and is reinforced by Ecuador's extraordinary recent draw rate of 80%, though Ivory Coast's strong winning form—particularly the away win against France—introduces meaningful uncertainty that keeps confidence moderate rather than high.

Conclusion note

The bookmaker consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a draw at 33.4%, marginally above Ecuador's 37.7% win probability and Ivory Coast's 28.9%, and Ecuador's recent form is strikingly draw-heavy with eight of their last ten matches ending level, while Ivory Coast enter on a three-match winning run including a 2-1 victory over France but with no head-to-head history or weather data available to refine the picture.

marketHome winThe market perspective reveals a notable correction: Ivory Coast's implied probability rose by 2.09 percentage points while Ecuador's fell by 2.01, with every sampled bookmaker moving in the same direction. Ivory Coast's recent form of eight wins in ten matches, including convincing results against France and South Korea, provides a results-based anchor that the market appears to be pricing in late. Ecuador's unbeaten streak (three wins, seven draws) keeps draw risk elevated at 33.4%, but their42%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.9%, draw 33.4%, side B win 37.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T12:11:32Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +2.09pp, draw -0.08pp, side B win -2.01pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.54; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.25 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.6. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.25, draw 2.8, side B 2.54; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.25, draw 2.75, side B 2.6; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.13 / under 5.75; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. The market perspective reveals a notable correction: Ivory Coast's implied probability rose by 2.09 percentage points while Ecuador's fell by 2.01, with every sampled bookmaker moving in the same direction. Ivory Coast's recent form of eight wins in ten matches, including convincing results against France and South Korea, provides a results-based anchor that the market appears to be pricing in late. Ecuador's unbeaten streak (three wins, seven draws) keeps draw risk elevated at 33.4%, but their

Conclusion note

Bookmakers still rate Ecuador as a slight favorite at 37.7% implied probability versus Ivory Coast at 28.9%, but all three major bookmakers (10bet, William Hill, Bet365) have shortened Ivory Coast's odds and lengthened Ecuador's over the past two days, indicating market movement toward Ivory Coast that aligns with Ivory Coast's stronger recent winning form (8 wins in 10 matches, including a 2-1 victory over France).

Synthesis

The draw is the most defensible outcome because Ecuador have finished level in seven of their last ten matches, an 70% draw rate that dwarfs any other single-result tendency in this fixture. Ivory Coast arrive in strong winning form with eight victories in ten, including a notable 2-1 away win against France, and the market has shifted toward them across all three sampled bookmakers over the past two days. However, Ecuador's consistent inability to either win or lose matches—even against varied opposition—makes a stalemate the single highest-probability result even though Ivory Coast's momentum keeps the visitors' win probability close behind. Ecuador's low recent win rate of just 30% and Ivory Coast's upward market correction together suppress Ecuador's win likelihood to the smallest of the three outcomes.

Reasoning summary: The rational perspective highlighted Ecuador's extraordinary 70% draw rate over the last ten matches and the bookmaker consensus placing the draw marginally highest at 33.4% implied probability. The market perspective noted Ecuador remain slight favorites at 37.7% but that Ivory Coast's implied probability has risen 2.09 percentage points with every sampled bookmaker shortening Ivory Coast's odds, reflecting their strong recent form of eight wins in ten. Resolving the disagreement, Ecuador's dom