DeepSeek V4 Pro · Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Ivory CoastvsEcuador
DeepSeek
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Late
PredictionHome win40%Hit
BetBet portfolio$750Aligned
Post-match result1-0
Net P&L+$606
PredictionConfidence: 40%
Home win

Pre-match betting odds make Ecuador narrow favourites with a 37.9% implied win probability and the draw close behind at 33.3%, while Ivory Coast are seen as 28.8% underdogs. In contrast, recent competitive form analysis strongly points to an Ivory Coast win: they have four wins and a draw in their last five, including impressive away victories over France and South Korea, whereas Ecuador’s unbeaten run came largely against weaker opponents such as Guatemala and New Zealand. The disagreement between the market and form evidence is resolved by giving greater weight to Ivory Coast’s superior quality of opposition and current scoring form, but the market’s tight pricing and Ecuador’s own long unbeaten streak keep a draw or an Ecuador win as genuine risks. Therefore, Ivory Coast are tipped to edge the contest with low confidence.

Bet
Bet portfolio$7502 bets
Net P&L+$606
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $400
    odds 3.39Settled: win+$956

    Betting rationale：Hedge adjustment: already holding $350 on Ecuador at 2.63, but the model now points strongly to Ivory Coast value at 3.39 (+10.5% edge). The football story backs this up — Ivory Coast’s recent away scalps against France (2-1) and South Korea (4-0) show a side peaking at the right moment, while Ecuador’s unbeaten run came against lighter opposition. Adding Ivory Coast at a better price balances the book, captures the model’s edge, and reflects a match script where the Ivorians’ attacking form can

    Payout: $1,356 · Balance after: $11,098

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $350
    odds 2.63Settled: loss-$350

    Betting rationale：Posture: narrow favorite conviction with an eye on Ecuador's unbeaten run. The match script: a cagey World Cup group opener on neutral ground in Philadelphia, where both sides will fear losing more than they crave winning early. Ivory Coast's away scalps against France and South Korea are flashy, but Ecuador's ten-match unbeaten streak — even padded by draws — signals a hard-to-beat structure. The model gives Ecuador a 37.7% edge, the highest single-outcome probability, and Pinnacle's 2.63 is ba

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,742

Post-match result1-0
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 40%Draw 33%Away win 27%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-1
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0Hit

Analysis brief

  • - The betting market prices Ecuador as the most likely winner at 37.9% implied probability, with the draw at 33.3% and Ivory Coast at 28.8%. Over the visible two-day odds window, Ivory Coast's implied probability rose by nearly two percentage points, but Ecuador remains the consensus favourite across all sampled bookmakers. The narrow margin and the market pricing the draw almost as probable as an Ecuador win make this a low-confidence favourite call.
  • - Ivory Coast's recent five-match form (4W-1D, +7 goal difference) includes high-quality away wins against France and South Korea, whereas Ecuador's five-match form (3W-2D, +5 goal difference) came largely against lower-ranked opponents. The draw-heavy, unbeaten Ecuador side presents a risk, but Ivory Coast's consistency and strength of opponents faced in competitive and friendly fixtures tilt the balance toward an Ivory Coast win, despite market odds favoring Ecuador.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.54Log loss 0.92

Meta thinking

  • Pre-match betting odds analysisReview the 14 captured odds entries for the Ivory Coast vs Ecuador match to infer market-implied probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win; compare odds across bookmakers to detect any notable divergences or value opportunities.
  • Recent competitive form evaluationAnalyze the last five matches of both sides. Ivory Coast recorded four wins and one draw, with strong away victories over France and South Korea. Ecuador posted three wins and two draws, including draws away against Netherlands and Morocco. Assess consistency, goal differentials, and the strength of opponents faced.

Tokens: 4230

Perspectives

Pre-match betting odds analysisAway winThe betting market prices Ecuador as the most likely winner at 37.9% implied probability, with the draw at 33.3% and Ivory Coast at 28.8%. Over the visible two-day odds window, Ivory Coast's implied probability rose by nearly two percentage points, but Ecuador remains the consensus favourite across all sampled bookmakers. The narrow margin and the market pricing the draw almost as probable as an Ecuador win make this a low-confidence favourite call.35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Pre-match betting odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.8%, draw 33.3%, side B win 37.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.96pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -1.78pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.2 / draw 2.82 / side B 2.52; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.4 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.55. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.2, draw 2.82, side B 2.52; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 2.75, side B 2.55; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.17 / under 5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T18:02:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 30.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 50%, wind 19.5 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.8%, draw 33.3%, side B win 37.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.96pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -1.78pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.2 / draw 2.82 / side B 2.52; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.4 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.55. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.2, draw 2.82, side B 2.52; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 2.75, side B 2.55; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.17 / under 5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The betting market prices Ecuador as the most likely winner at 37.9% implied probability, with the draw at 33.3% and Ivory Coast at 28.8%. Over the visible two-day odds window, Ivory Coast's implied probability rose by nearly two percentage points, but Ecuador remains the consensus favourite across all sampled bookmakers. The narrow margin and the market pricing the draw almost as probable as an Ecuador win make this a low-confidence favourite call.

Conclusion note

Across 14 bookmaker samples, Ecuador are priced as marginal favourites with a market-implied win probability of 37.9%, while the draw (33.3%) and an Ivory Coast win (28.8%) remain close alternatives. The latest odds from bet365 (Ivory Coast 3.40, draw 2.75, Ecuador 2.55) and William Hill (3.10 / 2.90 / 2.40) show a consistent slight edge for Ecuador with no major divergence across bookmakers.

Recent competitive form evaluationHome winIvory Coast's recent five-match form (4W-1D, +7 goal difference) includes high-quality away wins against France and South Korea, whereas Ecuador's five-match form (3W-2D, +5 goal difference) came largely against lower-ranked opponents. The draw-heavy, unbeaten Ecuador side presents a risk, but Ivory Coast's consistency and strength of opponents faced in competitive and friendly fixtures tilt the balance toward an Ivory Coast win, despite market odds favoring Ecuador.48%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Fixture: CIV vs ECU. Kickoff: 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-14T18:00:55Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ecuador: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 28.8%, draw 33.3%, side B win 37.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:30:19Z -> 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +1.96pp, draw -0.18pp, side B win -1.78pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 3.55 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.36 → side A 3.2 / draw 2.82 / side B 2.52; william_hill side A 3.3 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.3 → side A 3.1 / draw 2.9 / side B 2.4; bet365 side A 3.6 / draw 2.8 / side B 2.38 → side A 3.4 / draw 2.75 / side B 2.55. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 3.2, draw 2.82, side B 2.52; william_hill: side A 3.1, draw 2.9, side B 2.4; bet365: side A 3.4, draw 2.75, side B 2.55; marathonbet: side A 3.38, draw 2.88, side B 2.62. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.14 / under 5.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.17 / under 5; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.1 / under 5.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-14T18:02:12Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 30.1°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 50%, wind 19.5 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-07T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-12-22T16:00:00Z, competition African Nations Championship - Qualification, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ecuador:

    • 2026-06-07T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Morocco, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T02:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-11T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Argentina, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ivory Coast's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 34. points 1532.98; previous rank 37; previous points 1522.48; rated matches 67; confederation CAF.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ecuador's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 23. points 1594.78; previous rank 23; previous points 1591.73; rated matches 57; confederation CONMEBOL.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ivory Coast vs Ecuador group context: Group E; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 6 remaining. Current group table: Ivory Coast 0 pts/0 played; Curaçao 0 pts/0 played; Ecuador 0 pts/0 played; Germany 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Ivory Coast can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Curaçao can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Ecuador can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Germany can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Germany vs Curaçao; Ivory Coast vs Ecuador; Germany vs Ivory Coast; Ecuador vs Curaçao. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ivory Coast recent sample: 5 visible matches, with detailed data for 0. record 4W-1D-0L；goals for/against 11/4, per-match 2.2/0.8。 Event sample: scored first in 0, conceded first in 0. Coverage notes: some match details are unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-14T21:00:00Z. Ecuador recent sample: 5 visible matches, with detailed data for 0. record 3W-2D-0L；goals for/against 9/3, per-match 1.8/0.6。 Event sample: scored first in 0, conceded first in 0. Coverage notes: some match details are unavailable.

  15. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  16. Ivory Coast's recent five-match form (4W-1D, +7 goal difference) includes high-quality away wins against France and South Korea, whereas Ecuador's five-match form (3W-2D, +5 goal difference) came largely against lower-ranked opponents. The draw-heavy, unbeaten Ecuador side presents a risk, but Ivory Coast's consistency and strength of opponents faced in competitive and friendly fixtures tilt the balance toward an Ivory Coast win, despite market odds favoring Ecuador.

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast's last five matches show four wins and one draw, with standout away victories over France (2-1) and South Korea (4-0), while Ecuador posted three wins and two draws but faced weaker opponents such as Guatemala and New Zealand at home. Although consensus odds make Ecuador a slight favorite (38% implied win probability) and Ecuador are unbeaten in their last ten, Ivory Coast's superior recent competitive form against stronger opposition gives them a narrow edge.

Synthesis

Pre-match betting odds make Ecuador narrow favourites with a 37.9% implied win probability and the draw close behind at 33.3%, while Ivory Coast are seen as 28.8% underdogs. In contrast, recent competitive form analysis strongly points to an Ivory Coast win: they have four wins and a draw in their last five, including impressive away victories over France and South Korea, whereas Ecuador’s unbeaten run came largely against weaker opponents such as Guatemala and New Zealand. The disagreement between the market and form evidence is resolved by giving greater weight to Ivory Coast’s superior quality of opposition and current scoring form, but the market’s tight pricing and Ecuador’s own long unbeaten streak keep a draw or an Ecuador win as genuine risks. Therefore, Ivory Coast are tipped to edge the contest with low confidence.

Reasoning summary: The betting market consensus treats the match as a near toss-up, slightly favouring Ecuador (37.9% implied) over the draw (33.3%) and Ivory Coast (28.8%). The form-based perspective, however, advocates a clear Ivory Coast win based on recent results against higher-calibre teams, including away wins versus France and South Korea. Synthesising both views, Ivory Coast’s form advantage is given moderate precedence, lowering Ecuador’s probability to 27% and raising Ivory Coast’s to 40%, while the dra