Qwen3.7 Plus · Curaçao vs Ivory Coast

CuraçaovsIvory Coast
Qwen
Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionAway win82%Hit
BetAway win$700Aligned
Post-match result0-2
Net P&L+$125
PredictionConfidence: 82%
Away win

Ivory Coast enters this match in exceptional form, having secured impressive victories against elite nations such as France, South Korea, and Scotland, alongside a narrow win over Ecuador. In stark contrast, Curaçao has struggled defensively against top-tier opposition, conceding heavily to Germany, Scotland, and Australia, despite managing a resilient goalless draw against Ecuador. The betting market heavily favors Ivory Coast with an implied win probability of over 82 percent, reflecting the significant gap in quality and recent performances. While Curaçao's defensive organization against Ecuador suggests they might limit the damage, Ivory Coast's attacking potency and Curaçao's vulnerability against elite attacks make a comfortable victory for Ivory Coast the most logical outcome.

Bet
Away win$7002 bets
Net P&L+$125
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $500
    odds 1.19Settled: win+$95

    Betting rationale：Ivory Coast holds overwhelming quality and momentum advantages, with the model assigning an 85% win probability. The prediction highlights Curaçao's defensive fragility against elite teams and the impact of hot Philadelphia conditions on their stamina. With a positive model edge (+0.010) at executable odds of 1.190, I am adding to the existing position to capitalize on the clear favorite status. This is a strong conviction play aligned with the match script of Ivory Coast dominance.

    Payout: $595 · Balance after: $11,277.9

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $200
    odds 1.15Settled: win+$30

    Betting rationale：Ivory Coast is in exceptional form with wins against France and Ecuador, while Curaçao has struggled defensively against elite teams. The model gives an 82% win probability for Ivory Coast. Although the execution odds of 1.150 offer a slight negative edge (-0.050), the match script strongly favors a comfortable Ivory Coast victory. I am taking a conviction stance on the favorite despite the thin value, allocating ~2% of bankroll to back the clear quality gap.

    Payout: $230 · Balance after: $10,682.9

Post-match result0-2
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 8%Draw 10%Away win 82%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #10-2Hit
  2. #20-3
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - Ivory Coast's form against top-tier opponents is clearly superior, with wins over France, South Korea, Scotland and Ecuador, while Curaçao have been heavily outscored by Germany (1-7), Scotland (1-4) and Australia (1-5). Curaçao's 0-0 draw with Ecuador shows some defensive resilience, but it is one result against a team Ivory Coast also beat 1-0, and the overwhelming weight of evidence from odds and recent form points to an Ivory Coast victory. The lack of head-to-head data and weather informati
  • - The market odds distribution overwhelmingly points to an Ivory Coast win, with an 82.6% implied probability and decimal odds consistently between 1.14 and 1.17. This pricing aligns with Ivory Coast's strong recent results against top-tier nations like France and Ecuador, while Curaçao has suffered heavy defeats to similar opposition, making a side B victory the most defensible outcome based on the captured market consensus and extended goal-line markets.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germany 2-
  • - Recall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germ
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.36. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 33.0%; draw 36.0%; Ecuador win 31.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivo
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.05Log loss 0.20

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and defensive vulnerabilityInvestigate the contrast between Ivory Coast's victories against top-tier opponents like France and South Korea and Curaçao's heavy defensive concessions against Germany and Scotland, while accounting for Curaçao's clean sheet against Ecuador.
  • Market odds and implied probability distributionAnalyze the 13 captured market odds lines to evaluate how bookmakers price the perceived quality gap between the two sides and assess the implied probabilities for match outcomes and potential goal margins.

Tokens: 3311

Perspectives

Recent form and defensive vulnerabilityAway winIvory Coast's form against top-tier opponents is clearly superior, with wins over France, South Korea, Scotland and Ecuador, while Curaçao have been heavily outscored by Germany (1-7), Scotland (1-4) and Australia (1-5). Curaçao's 0-0 draw with Ecuador shows some defensive resilience, but it is one result against a team Ivory Coast also beat 1-0, and the overwhelming weight of evidence from odds and recent form points to an Ivory Coast victory. The lack of head-to-head data and weather informati80%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and defensive vulnerability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: CUW vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Curaçao: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Curaçao: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.1%, draw 12.2%, side B win 82.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T12:03:28Z -> 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16 → side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16; william_hill side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.17 → side A 17 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 6.6, side B 1.16; william_hill: side A 19, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 17, draw 8.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 22, draw 7.8, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.17 / under 5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.11 / under 4.9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Curaçao:

    • 2026-06-21T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-7, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Aruba, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T09:10:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Australia, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T06:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against China, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-25T02:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Honduras, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-21T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Canada, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-18T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-03-19T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Ivory Coast's form against top-tier opponents is clearly superior, with wins over France, South Korea, Scotland and Ecuador, while Curaçao have been heavily outscored by Germany (1-7), Scotland (1-4) and Australia (1-5). Curaçao's 0-0 draw with Ecuador shows some defensive resilience, but it is one result against a team Ivory Coast also beat 1-0, and the overwhelming weight of evidence from odds and recent form points to an Ivory Coast victory. The lack of head-to-head data and weather informati

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus gives Ivory Coast an 82.6% implied win probability, reflecting their recent victories over France (2-1 away), South Korea (4-0 away) and Scotland (1-0 away), alongside a 1-0 win over Ecuador. Curaçao kept a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw with Ecuador, but their defensive record against elite opposition is deeply concerning, having conceded seven goals to Germany, four to Scotland and five to Australia in recent matches.

Market odds and implied probability distributionAway winThe market odds distribution overwhelmingly points to an Ivory Coast win, with an 82.6% implied probability and decimal odds consistently between 1.14 and 1.17. This pricing aligns with Ivory Coast's strong recent results against top-tier nations like France and Ecuador, while Curaçao has suffered heavy defeats to similar opposition, making a side B victory the most defensible outcome based on the captured market consensus and extended goal-line markets.85%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds and implied probability distribution

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: CUW vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Curaçao: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Curaçao: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.1%, draw 12.2%, side B win 82.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T12:03:28Z -> 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16 → side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16; william_hill side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.17 → side A 17 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 6.6, side B 1.16; william_hill: side A 19, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 17, draw 8.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 22, draw 7.8, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.17 / under 5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.11 / under 4.9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Curaçao:

    • 2026-06-21T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-7, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Aruba, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T09:10:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Australia, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T06:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against China, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-25T02:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Honduras, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-21T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Canada, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-18T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-03-19T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The market odds distribution overwhelmingly points to an Ivory Coast win, with an 82.6% implied probability and decimal odds consistently between 1.14 and 1.17. This pricing aligns with Ivory Coast's strong recent results against top-tier nations like France and Ecuador, while Curaçao has suffered heavy defeats to similar opposition, making a side B victory the most defensible outcome based on the captured market consensus and extended goal-line markets.

Conclusion note

Bookmakers heavily favor Ivory Coast with an 82.6% implied probability of victory, pricing their odds between 1.14 and 1.17 across major markets. The over 1.5 goals line is priced around 1.11 to 1.17, reflecting strong market expectations for a multi-goal margin in a match where Ivory Coast's recent form against elite teams starkly contrasts with Curaçao's defensive vulnerabilities.

Synthesis

Ivory Coast enters this match in exceptional form, having secured impressive victories against elite nations such as France, South Korea, and Scotland, alongside a narrow win over Ecuador. In stark contrast, Curaçao has struggled defensively against top-tier opposition, conceding heavily to Germany, Scotland, and Australia, despite managing a resilient goalless draw against Ecuador. The betting market heavily favors Ivory Coast with an implied win probability of over 82 percent, reflecting the significant gap in quality and recent performances. While Curaçao's defensive organization against Ecuador suggests they might limit the damage, Ivory Coast's attacking potency and Curaçao's vulnerability against elite attacks make a comfortable victory for Ivory Coast the most logical outcome.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives strongly favor an Ivory Coast victory, aligning with the bookmaker consensus that prices their win probability at 82.6 percent. The decisive evidence lies in the contrasting recent form, as Ivory Coast has defeated multiple top-tier teams while Curaçao has suffered heavy defensive collapses against similar opposition. Although Curaçao showed some resilience in a goalless draw with Ecuador, the overwhelming market odds and historical vulnerability to high-scoring defeats point t

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Germany vs Curaçao Late editionRecall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germany 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Germany vs Curaçao Actionable editionRecall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.36. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 33.0%; draw 36.0%; Ecuador win 31.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivorelevance 0.50