GLM-5.1 · Curaçao vs Ivory Coast

CuraçaovsIvory Coast
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win80%Hit
BetBet portfolio$560Bet portfolio
Post-match result0-2
Net P&L-$261
PredictionConfidence: 80%
Away win

Ivory Coast are heavily favoured against Curaçao based on converging evidence from market odds, recent competitive form, and a decisive common-opponent comparison. All 13 captured bookmaker lines cluster around an 82.6% implied win probability for Ivory Coast with negligible movement, indicating strong and stable consensus. Ivory Coast's broader recent record of seven wins in ten matches, including victories over France and South Korea, far outpaces Curaçao's one win in ten. The most telling evidence comes from shared World Cup group-stage opponents: Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0 and lost narrowly 1-2 to Germany, while Curaçao drew Ecuador 0-0 but were overwhelmed 1-7 by the same Germany side, revealing a large quality gap. The contrarian check notes that Curaçao's draw with Ecuador versus Ivory Coast's narrow win suggests a slightly smaller gap than odds imply, but the Germany comparison decisively contradicts that caveat, and Curaçao's broader record of heavy defeats to Scotland, Australia and China reinforces Ivory Coast's superiority. Confidence is set at 0.80, slightly below the market ceiling, to account for the limited contrarian nuance and missing lineup or head-to-head data.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5603 bets
Net P&L-$261
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $260
    odds 1.15Settled: win+$39

    Betting rationale：Ivory Coast are the clear quality side: strong recent form including wins over France and Ecuador, while Curaçao were hammered 1-7 by Germany and have only one competitive win in ten. The common-opponent comparison (Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0; Curaçao drew them 0-0 but were destroyed by the same Germany side) confirms a large gap. The 1.150 execution price is short but still playable for a conviction stance on the favourite—Ivory Coast should control this match from midfield. Model edge is -0.

    Payout: $299 · Balance after: $9,329.8

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $190
    odds 8.50Settled: loss-$190

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw trap protection / contrarian hedge. Ivory Coast are heavy favorites (82% model probability) and I already hold a 260 USD side_b_win position at 1.150. Adding more at 1.190 is negative edge (-0.020) and terrible payout — barely 19 cents per dollar. The only positive edge at execution prices is the draw at 8.500 (+0.002), and the model gives draw 12% vs market implied 11.8%, so there's a slight mispricing. Curaçao showed grit drawing Ecuador 0-0 and hot Philadelphia conditio

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,329.8

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Home win

    $110
    odds 19.00Settled: loss-$110

    Betting rationale：Ivory Coast is the clear favorite and I already have $260 on side_b_win at 1.150 — that covers the baseline conviction. But at 19.000 on Pinnacle, Curaçao's implied probability is ~5.3% while the model assigns 7.0% (+0.017 edge vs execution, +0.027 vs best market). This is the only outcome with positive model edge. Curaçao held Ecuador to 0-0 (Ivory Coast only beat them 1-0), showing they can be compact against decent opposition. A hot Philadelphia afternoon at a neutral venue could produce earl

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,329.8

Post-match result0-2
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 7%Draw 13%Away win 80%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #10-2Hit
  2. #20-3
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The captured odds consensus is overwhelmingly skewed toward Ivory Coast at 82.6% implied probability, with minimal variation across bookmakers and near-zero movement across update timestamps, signaling a stable and unified market view. Curaçao's poor recent record (1W, 3D, 6L) and Ivory Coast's strong form (7W, 1D, 2L, including wins over France and South Korea) reinforce the odds assessment. The draw probability of 12.2% and Curaçao's 5.1% leave a small but non-trivial residual risk, which keep
  • - The decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison in World Cup group-stage matches: Ivory Coast handled Ecuador and Germany far better than Curaçao did, and their overall recent form is substantially superior. Odds consensus at 82.6% for an Ivory Coast win aligns with this form gap. Missing head-to-head records, lineups and weather introduce some uncertainty, so confidence is set below the implied probability ceiling.
  • - The contrarian check finds limited support: Curaçao's 0-0 draw with Ecuador versus Ivory Coast's narrow 1-0 win over Ecuador suggests a smaller gap than the odds imply, but the shared Germany opponent decisively contradicts it — Ivory Coast lost 1-2 while Curaçao lost 1-7, revealing a large quality difference. Curaçao's broader record (7 losses in 10, heavy defeats to Scotland, Australia and China) and Ivory Coast's six wins including France and South Korea reinforce Ivory Coast's superiority. T

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Germany win 90.0%; draw 6.0%; Curaçao win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 5-
  • - Recall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 2-0 Curaçao, Germ
  • - Recall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 31.0%; draw 35.0%; Ecuador win 34.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivo
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.06Log loss 0.22

Meta thinking

  • Market odds implied probabilitiesExamine the 13 captured odds entries to extract implied win/draw/loss probabilities and margin, identifying how strongly the market distinguishes the two sides and whether the odds distribution suggests consensus or divergence.
  • Recent competitive form comparisonCompare each team's five visible recent results, weighting World Cup group-stage matches over friendlies; Curaçao drew Ecuador 0-0 but conceded heavily to Germany and Scotland, while Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0 and lost narrowly 1-2 to Germany, indicating a clear quality gap in competitive settings.
  • Contrarian evidence against form dominanceInvestigate whether Ivory Coast's form advantage is overstated: Curaçao held Ecuador to a draw whereas Ivory Coast only beat Ecuador 1-0, and both faced Germany with Ivory Coast losing 1-2 versus Curaçao's 1-7, so check if the odds gap aligns with or exceeds the actual competitive-match performance gap.

Tokens: 2311

Perspectives

Market odds implied probabilitiesAway winThe captured odds consensus is overwhelmingly skewed toward Ivory Coast at 82.6% implied probability, with minimal variation across bookmakers and near-zero movement across update timestamps, signaling a stable and unified market view. Curaçao's poor recent record (1W, 3D, 6L) and Ivory Coast's strong form (7W, 1D, 2L, including wins over France and South Korea) reinforce the odds assessment. The draw probability of 12.2% and Curaçao's 5.1% leave a small but non-trivial residual risk, which keep80%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: CUW vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Curaçao: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Curaçao: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.1%, draw 12.2%, side B win 82.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T12:03:28Z -> 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16 → side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16; william_hill side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.17 → side A 17 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 6.6, side B 1.16; william_hill: side A 19, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 17, draw 8.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 22, draw 7.8, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.17 / under 5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.11 / under 4.9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Curaçao:

    • 2026-06-21T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-7, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Aruba, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T09:10:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Australia, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T06:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against China, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-25T02:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Honduras, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-21T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Canada, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-18T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-03-19T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The captured odds consensus is overwhelmingly skewed toward Ivory Coast at 82.6% implied probability, with minimal variation across bookmakers and near-zero movement across update timestamps, signaling a stable and unified market view. Curaçao's poor recent record (1W, 3D, 6L) and Ivory Coast's strong form (7W, 1D, 2L, including wins over France and South Korea) reinforce the odds assessment. The draw probability of 12.2% and Curaçao's 5.1% leave a small but non-trivial residual risk, which keep

Conclusion note

The market assigns Ivory Coast an 82.6% implied win probability versus only 5.1% for Curaçao and 12.2% for the draw, with all 13 captured bookmaker lines clustered tightly around side B odds of 1.14–1.16 and negligible movement between update points, indicating strong consensus that Ivory Coast are heavy favorites. Curaçao's recent form of one win in ten matches, including a 1-7 defeat by Germany, further supports the market's stark distinction between the two sides.

Recent competitive form comparisonAway winThe decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison in World Cup group-stage matches: Ivory Coast handled Ecuador and Germany far better than Curaçao did, and their overall recent form is substantially superior. Odds consensus at 82.6% for an Ivory Coast win aligns with this form gap. Missing head-to-head records, lineups and weather introduce some uncertainty, so confidence is set below the implied probability ceiling.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: CUW vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Curaçao: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Curaçao: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.1%, draw 12.2%, side B win 82.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T12:03:28Z -> 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16 → side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16; william_hill side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.17 → side A 17 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 6.6, side B 1.16; william_hill: side A 19, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 17, draw 8.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 22, draw 7.8, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.17 / under 5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.11 / under 4.9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Curaçao:

    • 2026-06-21T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-7, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Aruba, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T09:10:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Australia, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T06:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against China, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-25T02:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Honduras, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-21T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Canada, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-18T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-03-19T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The decisive evidence is the common-opponent comparison in World Cup group-stage matches: Ivory Coast handled Ecuador and Germany far better than Curaçao did, and their overall recent form is substantially superior. Odds consensus at 82.6% for an Ivory Coast win aligns with this form gap. Missing head-to-head records, lineups and weather introduce some uncertainty, so confidence is set below the implied probability ceiling.

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast are strongly favored based on competitive form: they beat Ecuador 1-0 and lost narrowly 1-2 to Germany in World Cup group play, while Curaçao drew Ecuador 0-0 but were overwhelmed 1-7 by Germany and 1-4 by Scotland, revealing a clear quality gap against the same or similar opponents. Bookmaker consensus assigns Ivory Coast an 82.6% implied win probability, and Ivory Coast's broader recent record (7 wins in 10) far outpaces Curaçao's (1 win, 6 losses in 10).

Contrarian evidence against form dominanceAway winThe contrarian check finds limited support: Curaçao's 0-0 draw with Ecuador versus Ivory Coast's narrow 1-0 win over Ecuador suggests a smaller gap than the odds imply, but the shared Germany opponent decisively contradicts it — Ivory Coast lost 1-2 while Curaçao lost 1-7, revealing a large quality difference. Curaçao's broader record (7 losses in 10, heavy defeats to Scotland, Australia and China) and Ivory Coast's six wins including France and South Korea reinforce Ivory Coast's superiority. T68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Contrarian evidence against form dominance

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Fixture: CUW vs CIV. Kickoff: 2026-06-25T20:00:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Curaçao: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Curaçao: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Ivory Coast: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.1%, draw 12.2%, side B win 82.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T12:03:28Z -> 2026-06-24T16:02:23Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.02pp, draw -0.06pp, side B win +0.04pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16 → side A 17.5 / draw 6.6 / side B 1.16; william_hill side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 19 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.17 → side A 17 / draw 8.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 17.5, draw 6.6, side B 1.16; william_hill: side A 19, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 17, draw 8.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 22, draw 7.8, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.17 / under 5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 19; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.11 / under 4.9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Curaçao:

    • 2026-06-21T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-14T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-7, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Aruba, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T09:10:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Australia, home/away away, score 1-5, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T06:00:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against China, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-25T02:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Honduras, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-21T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Canada, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-18T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-03-19T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T20:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Ivory Coast:

    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Germany, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-04T19:10:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Scotland, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Gabon, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Cameroon, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-24T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mozambique, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Oman, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The contrarian check finds limited support: Curaçao's 0-0 draw with Ecuador versus Ivory Coast's narrow 1-0 win over Ecuador suggests a smaller gap than the odds imply, but the shared Germany opponent decisively contradicts it — Ivory Coast lost 1-2 while Curaçao lost 1-7, revealing a large quality difference. Curaçao's broader record (7 losses in 10, heavy defeats to Scotland, Australia and China) and Ivory Coast's six wins including France and South Korea reinforce Ivory Coast's superiority. T

Conclusion note

Ivory Coast are heavily favoured at 82.6% implied probability, and their broader form (wins over France, South Korea and Scotland) plus a competitive 1-2 loss to Germany far outweighs Curaçao's single bright spot of drawing Ecuador 0-0, especially since Curaçao were demolished 1-7 by the same Germany side Ivory Coast nearly beat.

Synthesis

Ivory Coast are heavily favoured against Curaçao based on converging evidence from market odds, recent competitive form, and a decisive common-opponent comparison. All 13 captured bookmaker lines cluster around an 82.6% implied win probability for Ivory Coast with negligible movement, indicating strong and stable consensus. Ivory Coast's broader recent record of seven wins in ten matches, including victories over France and South Korea, far outpaces Curaçao's one win in ten. The most telling evidence comes from shared World Cup group-stage opponents: Ivory Coast beat Ecuador 1-0 and lost narrowly 1-2 to Germany, while Curaçao drew Ecuador 0-0 but were overwhelmed 1-7 by the same Germany side, revealing a large quality gap. The contrarian check notes that Curaçao's draw with Ecuador versus Ivory Coast's narrow win suggests a slightly smaller gap than odds imply, but the Germany comparison decisively contradicts that caveat, and Curaçao's broader record of heavy defeats to Scotland, Australia and China reinforces Ivory Coast's superiority. Confidence is set at 0.80, slightly below the market ceiling, to account for the limited contrarian nuance and missing lineup or head-to-head data.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives agree on an Ivory Coast win, with confidence levels of 0.80, 0.78 and 0.68 respectively. Market odds provide a strong anchor at 82.6% implied probability with tight consensus across 13 bookmakers and minimal movement. The recent competitive form perspective highlights Ivory Coast's seven wins in ten versus Curaçao's one, and a clear common-opponent gap: Ivory Coast handled Ecuador and Germany far better than Curaçao, whose 1-7 loss to Germany contrasts sharply with Ivory C

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Germany vs Curaçao Late editionRecall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.90. Probability distribution: Germany win 90.0%; draw 6.0%; Curaçao win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 4-0 Curaçao, Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 5-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Germany vs Curaçao Actionable editionRecall anchors: ger cuw group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Germany win with confidence 0.92. Probability distribution: Germany win 92.0%; draw 5.0%; Curaçao win 3.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Germany 3-0 Curaçao, Germany 2-0 Curaçao, Germrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Late editionRecall anchors: civ ecu group_e_round_1. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted draw with confidence 0.35. Probability distribution: Ivory Coast win 31.0%; draw 35.0%; Ecuador win 34.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador, Ivorelevance 0.50