GLM-5.1 · South Africa vs Canada

South AfricavsCanada
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win55%Hit
BetBet portfolio$430Bet portfolio
Post-match result0-1
Net P&L+$173.7
PredictionConfidence: 55%
Away win

Canada is favored to beat South Africa based on converging evidence from bookmaker consensus, recent form, and squad availability. Canada's implied win probability from 13 bookmakers sits at roughly 57%, supported by a stronger recent record including a 6-0 World Cup victory over Qatar and eight total World Cup goals compared to South Africa's two goals across three group-stage matches. Both teams share an identical 1-1-1 World Cup group record, but Canada's superior goal output and overall consistency provide the decisive edge. The primary uncertainty is midfielder Ismaël Koné's questionable availability, which caused slight odds drift toward South Africa and the draw, though Koné remains questionable rather than ruled out and lineups are unconfirmed. South Africa's clean injury report is a minor counterweight, but their attacking limitations and lack of head-to-head data against Canada leave the evidence tilt firmly toward a Canada victory at moderate confidence.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4303 bets
Net P&L+$173.7
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $180
    odds 1.72Settled: win+$129.6

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. The football script leans Canada: superior goal efficiency (2.2 scored/0.8 conceded vs SA's 0.6/1.0), emphatic 6-0 vs Qatar, and South Africa's chronic scoring struggles. Even South Africa's recent 1-0 win over South Korea was a narrow grind rather than attacking dominance. Execution edge is thin (-0.011) but the match story — a knockout where the more clinical side usually prevails, on neutral ground — supports backing Canada at 1.720. A 3% stake (~$180) balances co

    Payout: $309.6 · Balance after: $8,685.4

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $170
    odds 1.73Settled: win+$124.1

    Betting rationale：Adding to existing Canada position. Match script: Canada's superior attacking form (8 WC goals, 6-0 vs Qatar) vs South Africa's struggles against stronger sides (0-2 vs Mexico, 1-2 vs Panama). Knockout pressure favors the more clinical team. South Africa's clean injury sheet and Koné's doubtful status are minor countervailing factors but haven't shifted market conviction. Model gives Canada 58% probability with +0.002 execution edge—thin but directionally consistent with the football story. Exis

    Payout: $294.1 · Balance after: $8,979.5

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Home win

    $80
    odds 6.03Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Knockout upset satellite: South Africa at 6.03 offers small positive model edge (+1.4%) and massive payout asymmetry. Portfolio already carries $350 on Canada at 1.72/1.73, so a small SA position diversifies exposure and hedges downside. Match script supports the angle — SA has zero injuries and three days' rest vs Canada's one injury concern (Koné) and only four days' rest after a loss to Switzerland. SA's defensive shape (1-0 win vs South Korea, draws vs Czechia/Nicaragua) suits a tense knocko

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,979.5

Post-match result0-1
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 18%Draw 27%Away win 55%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #10-1Hit
  2. #20-2
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - Market pricing strongly favors Canada at approximately 1.64-1.67 across major bookmakers, consistent with Canada's superior recent consistency and World Cup results, while the slight odds drift toward South Africa and the draw reflects the Koné injury uncertainty without overturning the fundamental pricing. South Africa's mixed World Cup form (one win, one draw, one loss) and higher implied odds of 5.5 support the market's assessment that Canada is the likely 90-minute winner, though knockout-st
  • - South Africa's last five matches show 1-2-2 with only two goals in three World Cup matches, while Canada's 2-2-1 includes eight World Cup goals, heavily skewed by the 6-0 win over Qatar. Both teams are 1-1-1 within World Cup play, so the decisive edge is Canada's superior overall goal output and the 56.9% bookmaker consensus, offset by Koné's questionable status and the absence of head-to-head records. The evidence gap on H2H and weather lowers confidence below the odds-implied level.
  • - From the injury and squad risk perspective, Canada's sole availability concern—a questionable midfielder I. Koné—introduces uncertainty in midfield depth and tactical setup, whereas South Africa has zero reported injuries and a fully available squad. However, Koné is listed as questionable rather than ruled out, and lineups remain unconfirmed, so the real positional impact cannot be verified yet. The odds consensus still assigns Canada a clear 56.9% win probability with only minor movement, sugg

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: rsa kor group_a_round_3. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted South Korea win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: South Africa win 20.0%; draw 25.0%; South Korea win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: South Africa 1-2 South Korea, South A
  • - Recall anchors: mex rsa group_a_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Mexico win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Mexico win 68.0%; draw 21.0%; South Africa win 11.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Mexico 2-0 South Africa, Mexico 1-0 South
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.31Log loss 0.60

Meta thinking

  • market oddsExamine the 13 observed pre-match odds to assess how the market prices the relative likelihood of each outcome and whether the implied probabilities diverge from what recent form and squad availability might suggest.
  • recent formCompare South Africa's 1-2-2 record across their last five matches (including a narrow World Cup win over South Korea and a draw vs Czechia) with Canada's 2-2-1 record (highlighting a 6-0 win over Qatar but a loss to Switzerland), focusing on consistency, goal output and defensive patterns within World Cup matches versus friendlies.
  • injury and squad riskInvestigate the impact of Canada's one observed injury on lineup depth and tactical options, contrasted with South Africa's zero reported injuries, noting that lineups are not yet confirmed so the actual severity and positional role of the affected player remain to be checked.

Tokens: 2393

Perspectives

market oddsAway winMarket pricing strongly favors Canada at approximately 1.64-1.67 across major bookmakers, consistent with Canada's superior recent consistency and World Cup results, while the slight odds drift toward South Africa and the draw reflects the Koné injury uncertainty without overturning the fundamental pricing. South Africa's mixed World Cup form (one win, one draw, one loss) and higher implied odds of 5.5 support the market's assessment that Canada is the likely 90-minute winner, though knockout-st57%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Fixture: South Africa vs Canada. Kickoff: 2026-06-28T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • South Africa: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • South Africa: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Canada injuries/availability: I. Koné (Midfielder, #8) status questionable.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-28T12:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.8%, draw 26.3%, side B win 56.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-28T08:04:15Z -> 2026-06-28T12:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.13pp, draw +0.52pp, side B win -0.65pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.6 / draw 3.65 / side B 1.62 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.64; william_hill side A 5.5 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.62 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 1.65; bet365 side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.65 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.7 / side B 1.67. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.5, draw 3.6, side B 1.64; william_hill: side A 5.5, draw 3.5, side B 1.65; bet365: side A 5.5, draw 3.7, side B 1.67; marathonbet: side A 6.1, draw 3.7, side B 1.69. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 5, 0-2 6; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 6, 0-2 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 6.5, 0-2 7.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for South Africa:

    • 2026-06-25T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Czechia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-11T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Egypt, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-22T17:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana B, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Market pricing strongly favors Canada at approximately 1.64-1.67 across major bookmakers, consistent with Canada's superior recent consistency and World Cup results, while the slight odds drift toward South Africa and the draw reflects the Koné injury uncertainty without overturning the fundamental pricing. South Africa's mixed World Cup form (one win, one draw, one loss) and higher implied odds of 5.5 support the market's assessment that Canada is the likely 90-minute winner, though knockout-st

Conclusion note

The 13 observed bookmaker odds collectively imply Canada winning at 56.9%, with South Africa at only 16.8% and the draw at 26.3%, and recent odds movement shows Canada drifting slightly (-0.65pp) likely reflecting midfielder I. Koné's questionable availability, yet Canada's form (4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in last 10, including a 6-0 win over Qatar) remains stronger than South Africa's (4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses).

recent formAway winSouth Africa's last five matches show 1-2-2 with only two goals in three World Cup matches, while Canada's 2-2-1 includes eight World Cup goals, heavily skewed by the 6-0 win over Qatar. Both teams are 1-1-1 within World Cup play, so the decisive edge is Canada's superior overall goal output and the 56.9% bookmaker consensus, offset by Koné's questionable status and the absence of head-to-head records. The evidence gap on H2H and weather lowers confidence below the odds-implied level.48%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent form

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Fixture: South Africa vs Canada. Kickoff: 2026-06-28T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • South Africa: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • South Africa: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Canada injuries/availability: I. Koné (Midfielder, #8) status questionable.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-28T12:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.8%, draw 26.3%, side B win 56.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-28T08:04:15Z -> 2026-06-28T12:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.13pp, draw +0.52pp, side B win -0.65pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.6 / draw 3.65 / side B 1.62 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.64; william_hill side A 5.5 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.62 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 1.65; bet365 side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.65 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.7 / side B 1.67. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.5, draw 3.6, side B 1.64; william_hill: side A 5.5, draw 3.5, side B 1.65; bet365: side A 5.5, draw 3.7, side B 1.67; marathonbet: side A 6.1, draw 3.7, side B 1.69. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 5, 0-2 6; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 6, 0-2 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 6.5, 0-2 7.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for South Africa:

    • 2026-06-25T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Czechia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-11T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Egypt, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-22T17:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana B, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. South Africa's last five matches show 1-2-2 with only two goals in three World Cup matches, while Canada's 2-2-1 includes eight World Cup goals, heavily skewed by the 6-0 win over Qatar. Both teams are 1-1-1 within World Cup play, so the decisive edge is Canada's superior overall goal output and the 56.9% bookmaker consensus, offset by Koné's questionable status and the absence of head-to-head records. The evidence gap on H2H and weather lowers confidence below the odds-implied level.

Conclusion note

Canada's recent form (2-2-1 in last five, with a 6-0 World Cup win over Qatar) outweighs South Africa's 1-2-2 record, though both share an identical 1-1-1 World Cup group-stage record; the bookmaker consensus at roughly 57% for a Canada win and their higher goal output support a Canada victory despite midfielder I. Koné being questionable and no head-to-head data available.

injury and squad riskAway winFrom the injury and squad risk perspective, Canada's sole availability concern—a questionable midfielder I. Koné—introduces uncertainty in midfield depth and tactical setup, whereas South Africa has zero reported injuries and a fully available squad. However, Koné is listed as questionable rather than ruled out, and lineups remain unconfirmed, so the real positional impact cannot be verified yet. The odds consensus still assigns Canada a clear 56.9% win probability with only minor movement, sugg52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    injury and squad risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Fixture: South Africa vs Canada. Kickoff: 2026-06-28T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (1 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • South Africa: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • South Africa: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Canada injuries/availability: I. Koné (Midfielder, #8) status questionable.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-28T12:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.8%, draw 26.3%, side B win 56.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-28T08:04:15Z -> 2026-06-28T12:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.13pp, draw +0.52pp, side B win -0.65pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 5.6 / draw 3.65 / side B 1.62 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.64; william_hill side A 5.5 / draw 3.6 / side B 1.62 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.5 / side B 1.65; bet365 side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.65 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.7 / side B 1.67. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 5.5, draw 3.6, side B 1.64; william_hill: side A 5.5, draw 3.5, side B 1.65; bet365: side A 5.5, draw 3.7, side B 1.67; marathonbet: side A 6.1, draw 3.7, side B 1.69. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 5, 0-2 6; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 6, 0-2 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 6.5, 0-2 7.5.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for South Africa:

    • 2026-06-25T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-18T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Czechia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-11T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Mexico, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-29T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nicaragua, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zimbabwe, home/away away, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Egypt, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-22T17:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Angola, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-16T14:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana B, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-28T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Qatar, home/away home, score 6-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. From the injury and squad risk perspective, Canada's sole availability concern—a questionable midfielder I. Koné—introduces uncertainty in midfield depth and tactical setup, whereas South Africa has zero reported injuries and a fully available squad. However, Koné is listed as questionable rather than ruled out, and lineups remain unconfirmed, so the real positional impact cannot be verified yet. The odds consensus still assigns Canada a clear 56.9% win probability with only minor movement, sugg

Conclusion note

Canada is favored by the bookmaker consensus at 56.9% implied probability despite midfielder I. Koné (#8) carrying a questionable status, while South Africa reports no injuries and could benefit from full squad availability, though confirmed lineups have not been released and Koné's actual participation remains uncertain.

Synthesis

Canada is favored to beat South Africa based on converging evidence from bookmaker consensus, recent form, and squad availability. Canada's implied win probability from 13 bookmakers sits at roughly 57%, supported by a stronger recent record including a 6-0 World Cup victory over Qatar and eight total World Cup goals compared to South Africa's two goals across three group-stage matches. Both teams share an identical 1-1-1 World Cup group record, but Canada's superior goal output and overall consistency provide the decisive edge. The primary uncertainty is midfielder Ismaël Koné's questionable availability, which caused slight odds drift toward South Africa and the draw, though Koné remains questionable rather than ruled out and lineups are unconfirmed. South Africa's clean injury report is a minor counterweight, but their attacking limitations and lack of head-to-head data against Canada leave the evidence tilt firmly toward a Canada victory at moderate confidence.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on a Canada win. Market pricing assigns Canada approximately 57% with minor drift reflecting Koné's questionable status but no fundamental shift. Recent form shows Canada at 4-5-1 overall and 2-2-1 in the last five with eight World Cup goals, versus South Africa's 4-3-3 overall, 1-2-2 in the last five, and only two World Cup goals. Injury risk is limited to Canada's Koné being questionable while South Africa has full availability, but this does not overturn Canada

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection South Africa vs South Korea Late editionRecall anchors: rsa kor group_a_round_3. Prediction window: Late edition. Visible at: T-2h. Predicted South Korea win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: South Africa win 20.0%; draw 25.0%; South Korea win 55.0%. Top-3 scorelines: South Africa 1-2 South Korea, South Arelevance 1.00
  • Post-match reflection Mexico vs South Africa Actionable editionRecall anchors: mex rsa group_a_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Mexico win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Mexico win 68.0%; draw 21.0%; South Africa win 11.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Mexico 2-0 South Africa, Mexico 1-0 Southrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50