MiMo V2.5 Pro · Canada vs Qatar

CanadavsQatar
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win74%Hit
BetDraw$300Reverse
Post-match result6-0
Net P&L-$300
PredictionConfidence: 74%
Home win

Market odds indicate overwhelming support for Canada with a 73.8% implied win probability, while Qatar's recent form is extremely poor with no wins in their last ten matches. The decisive evidence points to a Canada victory, though Canada's draw-heavy record introduces some uncertainty, but Qatar's persistent struggles against various opposition make an upset unlikely.

Bet
Draw$3002 bets
Net P&L-$300
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 5.84Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Canada heavy favorites but their alarming draw record (4 of last 5 matches) combined with Qatar's 1-1 draw with Switzerland suggests a trap. Model shows negative edge on Canada at execution odds but positive edge on draw (+0.002). Classic group stage underdog resilience scenario at BC Place. Small contrarian stake on draw at 5.840 as a match script bet.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,584.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 5.70Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: Draw/trap protection. Match script: Canada's alarming draw frequency (4/5 recent matches) combined with Qatar's defensive resilience (held Switzerland 1-1) suggests another level contest. Indoor venue removes weather as a chaos factor, but Canada's inability to convert dominance into wins is a real pattern. Model gives draw 20% vs market's 17.5% implied—positive edge of +2.5% at execution odds (5.70). Already holding $150 on draw; reinforcing position with additional $150 (2.2%

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,584.5

Post-match result6-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 74%Draw 17%Away win 9%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market odds from 13 bookmaker observations price Canada at approximately 73.8% win probability with no movement across six update points, reflecting strong consensus. Qatar's recent form is abysmal with zero wins and seven losses in their last ten matches, providing fundamental support for the market's heavy favorite pricing. While Canada's five draws in ten matches introduce some tension with the high win probability, Qatar's inability to beat even mid-tier opposition (losses to Palestine,
  • - Canada's last five matches show one win and four draws with six goals scored and four conceded, demonstrating resilience even when not winning outright, while Qatar's last five yield zero wins, three draws, and two losses with only two goals scored and five conceded—a stark attacking and defensive disparity. Qatar's extended run includes heavy defeats to Tunisia (0-3), Russia (1-4), and multiple losses to lower-ranked sides, indicating deep structural problems. Canada's draw-heavy record introdu

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Qatar win 15.0%; draw 25.0%; Switzerland win 60.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switzer
  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Qatar win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Switzerland win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switze
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 1-2 Scotland, Haiti
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.10Log loss 0.30

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds EvaluationAnalyze the 13 captured odds observations to understand the market's implied probabilities for Canada and Qatar, and identify any potential value or mispricing in the betting lines.
  • Recent Performance TrendsCompare the last 5 match results for Canada and Qatar, focusing on outcomes, goals scored and conceded, and patterns such as draws or wins to assess current team form.

Tokens: 3374

Perspectives

Market Odds EvaluationHome winThe market odds from 13 bookmaker observations price Canada at approximately 73.8% win probability with no movement across six update points, reflecting strong consensus. Qatar's recent form is abysmal with zero wins and seven losses in their last ten matches, providing fundamental support for the market's heavy favorite pricing. While Canada's five draws in ten matches introduce some tension with the high win probability, Qatar's inability to beat even mid-tier opposition (losses to Palestine,74%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 73.8%, draw 17.4%, side B win 8.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-17T16:15:08Z -> 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5 → side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10 → side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10; bet365 side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.27, draw 5.25, side B 10.5; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5, side B 10; bet365: side A 1.28, draw 5.5, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 11.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 73.8%, draw 17.4%, side B win 8.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-17T16:15:08Z -> 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5 → side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10 → side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10; bet365 side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.27, draw 5.25, side B 10.5; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5, side B 10; bet365: side A 1.28, draw 5.5, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 11.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market odds from 13 bookmaker observations price Canada at approximately 73.8% win probability with no movement across six update points, reflecting strong consensus. Qatar's recent form is abysmal with zero wins and seven losses in their last ten matches, providing fundamental support for the market's heavy favorite pricing. While Canada's five draws in ten matches introduce some tension with the high win probability, Qatar's inability to beat even mid-tier opposition (losses to Palestine,

Conclusion note

The betting market shows overwhelming consensus for a Canada victory over Qatar, with 13 bookmaker samples across six update points converging on an implied probability of 73.8% for Canada, 17.4% for a draw, and only 8.8% for Qatar, with zero probability movement indicating stable market confidence. Qatar's recent form is extremely poor with seven losses and three draws in their last ten matches, while Canada has been more competitive despite five draws in ten, and the extended markets pricing over 0.5 goals at 1.04 reflect near-certainty of at least one goal, favoring the stronger side.

Recent Performance TrendsHome winCanada's last five matches show one win and four draws with six goals scored and four conceded, demonstrating resilience even when not winning outright, while Qatar's last five yield zero wins, three draws, and two losses with only two goals scored and five conceded—a stark attacking and defensive disparity. Qatar's extended run includes heavy defeats to Tunisia (0-3), Russia (1-4), and multiple losses to lower-ranked sides, indicating deep structural problems. Canada's draw-heavy record introdu72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Performance Trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 73.8%, draw 17.4%, side B win 8.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-17T16:15:08Z -> 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5 → side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10 → side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10; bet365 side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.27, draw 5.25, side B 10.5; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5, side B 10; bet365: side A 1.28, draw 5.5, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 11.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Canada's last five matches show one win and four draws with six goals scored and four conceded, demonstrating resilience even when not winning outright, while Qatar's last five yield zero wins, three draws, and two losses with only two goals scored and five conceded—a stark attacking and defensive disparity. Qatar's extended run includes heavy defeats to Tunisia (0-3), Russia (1-4), and multiple losses to lower-ranked sides, indicating deep structural problems. Canada's draw-heavy record introdu

Conclusion note

Canada enter this World Cup group stage match with significantly stronger recent form than Qatar, having gone unbeaten in their last nine matches (3 wins, 6 draws, 0 losses in last 10) including a 1-1 draw against Bosnia & Herzegovina in their opening group fixture, while Qatar's last 10 results show only 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses—scoring just 5 goals and conceding 15—with their most recent World Cup result a 1-1 draw against Switzerland. Bookmaker consensus assigns Canada a 73.8% implied win probability versus just 8.8% for Qatar, reflecting the substantial quality gap between the two sides.

Synthesis

Market odds indicate overwhelming support for Canada with a 73.8% implied win probability, while Qatar's recent form is extremely poor with no wins in their last ten matches. The decisive evidence points to a Canada victory, though Canada's draw-heavy record introduces some uncertainty, but Qatar's persistent struggles against various opposition make an upset unlikely.

Reasoning summary: Both market evaluation and recent performance trends concur that Canada will win, driven by strong betting consensus and Qatar's winless streak in ten matches, with Canada's resilience in draws not enough to offset Qatar's deep-seated weaknesses.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Qatar win 15.0%; draw 25.0%; Switzerland win 60.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switzerrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.82. Probability distribution: Qatar win 6.0%; draw 12.0%; Switzerland win 82.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switzerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 1-2 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50