GLM-5.1 · Canada vs Qatar

CanadavsQatar
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win68%Hit
BetBet portfolio$490Reverse
Post-match result6-0
Net P&L-$490
PredictionConfidence: 68%
Home win

All three analytical perspectives converge on a Canada win, supported by a stable market consensus around 74% implied probability, Canada's unbeaten recent run, and a tangible home-venue advantage at BC Place in Vancouver where Canada have not lost in their last six matches. Qatar's form is distinctly poor — winless with multiple losses across different competitions, and their limited away record offers no counterweight. However, Canada's pronounced draw tendency, with four to six draws in their recent matches, means the draw probability is not negligible, and the outright win confidence is moderated below the raw market implied figure. Qatar's chances of winning are minimal given their results profile against competitive opposition.

Bet
Bet portfolio$4903 bets
Net P&L-$490
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $300
    odds 5.76Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Canada is heavily favored but glaringly draw-prone — four draws in five recent matches including their WC opener. Qatar also drew their opener vs Switzerland. The market prices the draw at just 17.4% implied (5.760), but the model assigns 22%, yielding a +4.6% edge, the best executable value on the board. Canada should win but struggles to close games; Qatar's low-block survival mode makes the draw a live trap worth a moderate stake.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,508.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $100
    odds 5.70Settled: loss-$100

    Betting rationale：Adjustment slice: reinforcing existing draw position ($300 at 5.760). Canada's persistent draw tendency — 4 draws in 5 recent matches including WC opener vs Bosnia — is the most observable pattern in this match. Qatar also held Switzerland to 1-1 in their WC opener, showing they can grind out draws against stronger sides. Execution draw at 5.700 carries +0.025 model edge, the best executable value. Match script: home favorite struggles to finish, compact underdog absorbs pressure, draw trap at ~

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,508.3

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Away win

    $90
    odds 11.31Settled: loss-$90

    Betting rationale：Portfolio diversification / chaos-upset posture. Already holding $300 on draw at 5.760, covering Canada's documented draw habit (4 draws in 5 visible matches). Adding a small Qatar upset satellite at 11.310 diversifies away from pure-draw reliance: Qatar drew Switzerland 1-1 at this World Cup, showing they can frustrate stronger sides, and the model edge vs execution is +0.032 (model 12% vs market ~8.8%). If Canada wins (most likely), both bets lose — acceptable at 1% stake. If draw, existing po

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,508.3

Post-match result6-0
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 4 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 68%Draw 22%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 4
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market strongly favors Canada with a stable 73.8% implied probability across 13 samples and no detectable odds drift, which aligns well with Qatar's winless and loss-heavy recent form. Canada's six draws in their last ten matches introduce some risk that the 17.4% draw probability may be slightly understated, but Qatar's 8.8% market rating is consistent with their poor results. Absence of head-to-head records, lineups and weather data prevents further calibration, so confidence is moderated
  • - Both sides show draw-heavy tendencies — Canada with four draws in five, Qatar with three — which raises draw risk, but the quality gap is substantial: Canada is unbeaten against competitive opposition while Qatar has zero wins and multiple losses to lower-tier teams. The odds consensus strongly favors Canada at ~74% implied probability, and Canada also benefits from being the schedule-listed home side at BC Place. The draw-heavy profiles justify moderating confidence below the raw odds implied l
  • - The bookmaker consensus strongly favours Canada at 73.8% implied probability, consistent with Canada's solid home record (three wins and three draws in their last six home matches) versus Qatar's poor overall form (one winless streak spanning multiple losses across different competitions). Qatar's scant away sample—a loss and a draw—does not meaningfully offset Canada's home-venue advantage at a large stadium where Canada have consistently played. However, Canada's high draw rate (five draws in

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Qatar win 18.0%; draw 22.0%; Switzerland win 60.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-2 Switzerland, Qatar 0-1 Switzer
  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Qatar win 9.0%; draw 16.0%; Switzerland win 75.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switze
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.16Log loss 0.39

Meta thinking

  • Market odds signalsExamine the 13 captured closing-style odds observations to extract implied probability distributions and market consensus on match outcome, checking whether odds align with or diverge from recent form indicators for Canada and Qatar.
  • Recent form comparisonCompare Canada's five-match unbeaten run (1 win, 4 draws including a World Cup draw vs Bosnia) against Qatar's mixed record (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, with a World Cup draw vs Switzerland), assessing whether the draw-heavy tendency of both sides suggests a low-separation profile and what competition-level differences reveal.
  • Home venue contextEvaluate whether Canada's schedule-listed home status at BC Place Vancouver (48,821 capacity, 15 m altitude) constitutes a tangible advantage or is offset by Qatar's recent experience playing away in friendlies, noting that no weather or travel data is captured to further refine this angle.

Tokens: 2331

Perspectives

Market odds signalsHome winThe market strongly favors Canada with a stable 73.8% implied probability across 13 samples and no detectable odds drift, which aligns well with Qatar's winless and loss-heavy recent form. Canada's six draws in their last ten matches introduce some risk that the 17.4% draw probability may be slightly understated, but Qatar's 8.8% market rating is consistent with their poor results. Absence of head-to-head records, lineups and weather data prevents further calibration, so confidence is moderated62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds signals

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 73.8%, draw 17.4%, side B win 8.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-17T16:15:08Z -> 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5 → side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10 → side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10; bet365 side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.27, draw 5.25, side B 10.5; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5, side B 10; bet365: side A 1.28, draw 5.5, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 11.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The market strongly favors Canada with a stable 73.8% implied probability across 13 samples and no detectable odds drift, which aligns well with Qatar's winless and loss-heavy recent form. Canada's six draws in their last ten matches introduce some risk that the 17.4% draw probability may be slightly understated, but Qatar's 8.8% market rating is consistent with their poor results. Absence of head-to-head records, lineups and weather data prevents further calibration, so confidence is moderated

Conclusion note

The 13 captured bookmaker odds observations show a firm market consensus giving Canada approximately 73.8% implied win probability with no visible odds movement across six update points, while Qatar sits at only 8.8%. This consensus aligns with Qatar's poor recent form of zero wins and six losses in ten matches, though Canada's draw-prone record of six draws in ten adds modest uncertainty to the outright win projection.

Recent form comparisonHome winBoth sides show draw-heavy tendencies — Canada with four draws in five, Qatar with three — which raises draw risk, but the quality gap is substantial: Canada is unbeaten against competitive opposition while Qatar has zero wins and multiple losses to lower-tier teams. The odds consensus strongly favors Canada at ~74% implied probability, and Canada also benefits from being the schedule-listed home side at BC Place. The draw-heavy profiles justify moderating confidence below the raw odds implied l58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 73.8%, draw 17.4%, side B win 8.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-17T16:15:08Z -> 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5 → side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10 → side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10; bet365 side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.27, draw 5.25, side B 10.5; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5, side B 10; bet365: side A 1.28, draw 5.5, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 11.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. Both sides show draw-heavy tendencies — Canada with four draws in five, Qatar with three — which raises draw risk, but the quality gap is substantial: Canada is unbeaten against competitive opposition while Qatar has zero wins and multiple losses to lower-tier teams. The odds consensus strongly favors Canada at ~74% implied probability, and Canada also benefits from being the schedule-listed home side at BC Place. The draw-heavy profiles justify moderating confidence below the raw odds implied l

Conclusion note

Canada's five-match unbeaten run (one win, four draws, including a World Cup draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina) contrasts sharply with Qatar's poor recent record (zero wins, three draws, two losses, including World Cup draws and losses to Tunisia and Palestine in the Arab Cup), and the bookmaker consensus assigns Canada roughly 74% implied win probability, though both teams' draw-heavy profiles introduce notable draw risk at this World Cup group-stage match in Vancouver.

Home venue contextHome winThe bookmaker consensus strongly favours Canada at 73.8% implied probability, consistent with Canada's solid home record (three wins and three draws in their last six home matches) versus Qatar's poor overall form (one winless streak spanning multiple losses across different competitions). Qatar's scant away sample—a loss and a draw—does not meaningfully offset Canada's home-venue advantage at a large stadium where Canada have consistently played. However, Canada's high draw rate (five draws in70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Home venue context

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Qatar: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 6, covering 13 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 73.8%, draw 17.4%, side B win 8.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-17T16:15:08Z -> 2026-06-17T20:03:38Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5 → side A 1.27 / draw 5.25 / side B 10.5; william_hill side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10 → side A 1.29 / draw 5 / side B 10; bet365 side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10 → side A 1.28 / draw 5.5 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.27, draw 5.25, side B 10.5; william_hill: side A 1.29, draw 5, side B 10; bet365: side A 1.28, draw 5.5, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.29, draw 5.5, side B 11.75. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Bosnia & Herzegovina, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-17T22:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-08-24T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Lebanon, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.

  10. The bookmaker consensus strongly favours Canada at 73.8% implied probability, consistent with Canada's solid home record (three wins and three draws in their last six home matches) versus Qatar's poor overall form (one winless streak spanning multiple losses across different competitions). Qatar's scant away sample—a loss and a draw—does not meaningfully offset Canada's home-venue advantage at a large stadium where Canada have consistently played. However, Canada's high draw rate (five draws in

Conclusion note

Canada's schedule-listed home status at BC Place Vancouver (48,821 capacity) constitutes a tangible advantage, as Canada are unbeaten in their last six home matches and bookmaker consensus assigns them a 73.8% implied win probability, while Qatar's limited recent away experience includes only a loss to Republic of Ireland and a draw with Syria, which does not offset the home crowd and familiarity benefit for Canada.

Synthesis

All three analytical perspectives converge on a Canada win, supported by a stable market consensus around 74% implied probability, Canada's unbeaten recent run, and a tangible home-venue advantage at BC Place in Vancouver where Canada have not lost in their last six matches. Qatar's form is distinctly poor — winless with multiple losses across different competitions, and their limited away record offers no counterweight. However, Canada's pronounced draw tendency, with four to six draws in their recent matches, means the draw probability is not negligible, and the outright win confidence is moderated below the raw market implied figure. Qatar's chances of winning are minimal given their results profile against competitive opposition.

Reasoning summary: All perspectives agree on a Canada win. The market assigns Canada approximately 73.8% implied probability with stable odds and no drift, consistent with Qatar's winless and loss-heavy recent form across multiple competitions. Canada's home status at BC Place Vancouver adds a measurable advantage, as they are unbeaten in six home matches. The main uncertainty is Canada's high draw rate — four to six draws in their last ten — which elevates draw risk above the market's 17.4% estimate. Qatar's own

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Qatar win 18.0%; draw 22.0%; Switzerland win 60.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-2 Switzerland, Qatar 0-1 Switzerrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Qatar win 9.0%; draw 16.0%; Switzerland win 75.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switzerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50