ERNIE 5.1 · Brazil vs Morocco

BrazilvsMorocco
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win60%Miss
BetHome win$250Aligned
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$250
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Home win

Brazil (side_a) are the clear favorites per 14-bookmaker consensus at 58.1% implied probability, with all three perspectives picking a Brazil win. Recent form supports this: Brazil have won 3 of their last 5 friendlies including dominant scores of 6-2 and 3-1, while Morocco are unbeaten in 5 but drew their most recent friendly 1-1 vs Norway. However, Morocco's defensive record is notably stronger (0.6 goals conceded per game vs Brazil's 1.4), and they beat Brazil 2-1 in their March 2023 head-to-head, which adds meaningful uncertainty. No injuries or suspensions affect either side. A likely scenario: Brazil apply early home pressure and take the lead, but Morocco's tight defense keeps the score close—possibly 2-1 or 1-0. The draw remains a real possibility at roughly 25% given Morocco's resilience.

Bet
Home win$250
Net P&L-$250
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 1.64Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Brazil at 1.640 (Pinnacle) with 60% model probability is essentially fair value—no mathematical edge (-1%), but the match script is vivid: World Cup group stage opener, Brazil's early home pressure, Morocco's steel defense (0.6 GA/game) keeping it tight, likely 2-1 or 1-0. The 24% draw probability is real given Morocco's resilience and their 2-1 win over Brazil in 2023, but I'm backing the favorite story at playable odds. Stake ~2.6% of $9,472 bankroll—normal convict

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,392

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 60%Draw 24%Away win 16%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #12-1
  2. #21-0
  3. #31-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - The perspective correctly identifies both teams scoring at 2.6 goals/game over last 5 friendlies, but Morocco shows stronger defensive rhythm (0.6 GA/game vs 1.4) and unbeaten momentum versus Brazil's loss to France. However, bookmaker consensus (58.1% Brazil win) and Brazil's home listing outweigh the form counter-signal. H2H favoring Morocco adds uncertainty, lowering confidence below the odds implied probability.
  • - Market consensus is tight and clear on Brazil (58.1%) with odds movement reinforcing the favorite and drifting Morocco out. Brazil's stronger recent win rate (70% vs 60%) justifies the pricing. The H2H Morocco win is a counter-signal but the market has already priced it out. The 17.2% for Morocco reflects genuine underdog status. Draw at 24.8% is possible but the consensus lean is decisively toward Brazil.
  • - Odds consensus heavily favors Brazil (58% vs 17% for Morocco). Brazil's last 3 matches are all wins with strong goal margins. Morocco's form is good but their most recent result is a draw. The 2023 H2H Morocco win is a single friendly outlier and does not outweigh the probability gap. No availability concerns for either team. Participant reliability is weak-mixed, so confidence is lowered from the odds-implied level.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.96Log loss 1.43

Meta thinking

  • Recent friendly form trajectoryBrazil has 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw in last 5 friendlies (including a loss to France); Morocco has 3 wins, 2 draws with no losses. Compare momentum and scoring patterns (Brazil: 2-1, 6-2, 3-1, 1-2, 1-1; Morocco: 1-1, 4-0, 5-0, 2-1, 1-1) to assess which side shows stronger current rhythm heading into the group stage opener.
  • Market odds consensus signal14 observed odds are captured for this fixture. Examine the implied probability spread across the 14 sources to identify market lean (favorite vs underdog pricing), check for consensus tightness or divergence, and note any outlier odds that might signal value relative to the visible form data for both teams.
  • Prediction source reliability weightingThe participant has 2 prior evaluations (1 high-confidence, 1 low-confidence) with 50% top-3 scoreline accuracy and average 0.5 scoreline distance. Use this calibration profile to gauge how much weight to assign to any derived prediction, noting the weak and mixed reliability signal.

Tokens: 4115

Perspectives

Recent friendly form trajectoryHome winThe perspective correctly identifies both teams scoring at 2.6 goals/game over last 5 friendlies, but Morocco shows stronger defensive rhythm (0.6 GA/game vs 1.4) and unbeaten momentum versus Brazil's loss to France. However, bookmaker consensus (58.1% Brazil win) and Brazil's home listing outweigh the form counter-signal. H2H favoring Morocco adds uncertainty, lowering confidence below the odds implied probability.62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent friendly form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Fixture: Brazil vs Morocco. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T18:00:00-04:00. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 58.1%, draw 24.8%, side B win 17.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.2pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.65 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.4 → side A 1.64 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.6; william_hill side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5 → side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.65 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.25 → side A 1.62 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.64, draw 3.7, side B 5.6; william_hill: side A 1.6, draw 3.9, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.62, draw 3.9, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.64, draw 3.84, side B 5.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2023-03-25, Brazil vs Morocco, score 1-2, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Tanger', 'name': 'Grand Stade de Tanger'}. (full detail via reference hist-7faf673fbd)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-15T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-11T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  10. The perspective correctly identifies both teams scoring at 2.6 goals/game over last 5 friendlies, but Morocco shows stronger defensive rhythm (0.6 GA/game vs 1.4) and unbeaten momentum versus Brazil's loss to France. However, bookmaker consensus (58.1% Brazil win) and Brazil's home listing outweigh the form counter-signal. H2H favoring Morocco adds uncertainty, lowering confidence below the odds implied probability.

Conclusion note

Brazil enters as the bookmaker favorite at 58.1% implied probability, with odds holding steady to slightly favoring Brazil across multiple bookmakers (10bet 1.64, bet365 1.62, william_hill 1.60). Recent friendly form shows Brazil with 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw in last 5 (scoring 13 goals, conceding 7), including a notable 6-2 win over Panama and 3-1 over Croatia, but also a 1-2 loss to France. Morocco is unbeaten in last 5 friendlies with 3 wins, 2 draws (scoring 13 goals, conceding only 3), showing tighter defense with clean sheets against Madagascar (4-0) and Burundi (5-0). Head-to-head shows Morocco beat Brazil 2-1 in March 2023. Morocco's unbeaten trajectory and superior defensive record (0.6 goals conceded/game vs Brazil's 1.4) provide a meaningful counter-signal to the odds, but Brazil's home listing and market consensus support the favorite.

Market odds consensus signalHome winMarket consensus is tight and clear on Brazil (58.1%) with odds movement reinforcing the favorite and drifting Morocco out. Brazil's stronger recent win rate (70% vs 60%) justifies the pricing. The H2H Morocco win is a counter-signal but the market has already priced it out. The 17.2% for Morocco reflects genuine underdog status. Draw at 24.8% is possible but the consensus lean is decisively toward Brazil.68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds consensus signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Fixture: Brazil vs Morocco. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T18:00:00-04:00. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 58.1%, draw 24.8%, side B win 17.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.2pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.65 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.4 → side A 1.64 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.6; william_hill side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5 → side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.65 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.25 → side A 1.62 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.64, draw 3.7, side B 5.6; william_hill: side A 1.6, draw 3.9, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.62, draw 3.9, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.64, draw 3.84, side B 5.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2023-03-25, Brazil vs Morocco, score 1-2, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Tanger', 'name': 'Grand Stade de Tanger'}. (full detail via reference hist-7faf673fbd)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-15T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-11T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 58.1%, draw 24.8%, side B win 17.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.2pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.65 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.4 → side A 1.64 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.6; william_hill side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5 → side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.65 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.25 → side A 1.62 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.64, draw 3.7, side B 5.6; william_hill: side A 1.6, draw 3.9, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.62, draw 3.9, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.64, draw 3.84, side B 5.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Market consensus is tight and clear on Brazil (58.1%) with odds movement reinforcing the favorite and drifting Morocco out. Brazil's stronger recent win rate (70% vs 60%) justifies the pricing. The H2H Morocco win is a counter-signal but the market has already priced it out. The 17.2% for Morocco reflects genuine underdog status. Draw at 24.8% is possible but the consensus lean is decisively toward Brazil.

Conclusion note

The 14-bookmaker consensus strongly favors Brazil at 58.1% implied probability, with tight odds clustering between 1.60–1.64. Morocco is priced as a clear underdog at 17.2% (odds 5.0–5.8). Recent odds movement reinforces this: Brazil's implied probability rose +0.2pp while Morocco's fell -0.17pp, showing the market drifting further away from Morocco. The draw sits at 24.8% with stable odds around 3.7–3.9. Brazil's recent form (7 wins in 10 matches, 70% win rate) supports the favorite pricing, while Morocco's form is also solid (6 wins in 10, 60% win rate) but the market has discounted their March 2023 H2H win (2-1) against Brazil. No injuries or suspensions affect either side.

Prediction source reliability weightingHome winOdds consensus heavily favors Brazil (58% vs 17% for Morocco). Brazil's last 3 matches are all wins with strong goal margins. Morocco's form is good but their most recent result is a draw. The 2023 H2H Morocco win is a single friendly outlier and does not outweigh the probability gap. No availability concerns for either team. Participant reliability is weak-mixed, so confidence is lowered from the odds-implied level.62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Prediction source reliability weighting

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Fixture: Brazil vs Morocco. Kickoff: 2026-06-13T18:00:00-04:00. Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h captured (1 observed); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Morocco: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 58.1%, draw 24.8%, side B win 17.2%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.2pp, draw -0.03pp, side B win -0.17pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.65 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.4 → side A 1.64 / draw 3.7 / side B 5.6; william_hill side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5 → side A 1.6 / draw 3.9 / side B 5; bet365 side A 1.65 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.25 → side A 1.62 / draw 3.9 / side B 5.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.64, draw 3.7, side B 5.6; william_hill: side A 1.6, draw 3.9, side B 5; bet365: side A 1.62, draw 3.9, side B 5.5; marathonbet: side A 1.64, draw 3.84, side B 5.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.06 / under 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 9; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 8.4.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 1 visible head-to-head match record(s):

    • 2023-03-25, Brazil vs Morocco, score 1-2, competition Friendlies, venue/home-away {'city': 'Tanger', 'name': 'Grand Stade de Tanger'}. (full detail via reference hist-7faf673fbd)

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-07-03T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-13T09:11:36Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Morocco:

    • 2026-06-07T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Madagascar, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Burundi, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Paraguay, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T20:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-29T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Zambia, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-26T20:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Mali, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-21T19:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Comoros, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-15T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-11T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  10. Odds consensus heavily favors Brazil (58% vs 17% for Morocco). Brazil's last 3 matches are all wins with strong goal margins. Morocco's form is good but their most recent result is a draw. The 2023 H2H Morocco win is a single friendly outlier and does not outweigh the probability gap. No availability concerns for either team. Participant reliability is weak-mixed, so confidence is lowered from the odds-implied level.

Conclusion note

Brazil are strong favorites at 58.1% implied probability across 14 bookmakers, with odds steady around 1.60–1.65. Recent form is excellent: 3 consecutive wins (Egypt 2-1, Panama 6-2, Croatia 3-1) and 6 wins in last 10. Morocco have 7 wins in last 10 but drew their most recent friendly 1-1 vs Norway. The only head-to-head since 2023 saw Morocco win 2-1 in a friendly in Tangier, but that was a single outlier against Brazil's current momentum. No injuries or suspensions for either side. The participant's track record shows mixed reliability (50% top-3 accuracy, 0.5 avg scoreline distance), so confidence is moderated accordingly.

Synthesis

Brazil (side_a) are the clear favorites per 14-bookmaker consensus at 58.1% implied probability, with all three perspectives picking a Brazil win. Recent form supports this: Brazil have won 3 of their last 5 friendlies including dominant scores of 6-2 and 3-1, while Morocco are unbeaten in 5 but drew their most recent friendly 1-1 vs Norway. However, Morocco's defensive record is notably stronger (0.6 goals conceded per game vs Brazil's 1.4), and they beat Brazil 2-1 in their March 2023 head-to-head, which adds meaningful uncertainty. No injuries or suspensions affect either side. A likely scenario: Brazil apply early home pressure and take the lead, but Morocco's tight defense keeps the score close—possibly 2-1 or 1-0. The draw remains a real possibility at roughly 25% given Morocco's resilience.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on a Brazil win with confidence 0.62–0.68, closely matching the 58.1% market consensus. The primary counter-signal is Morocco's unbeaten friendly run, superior defensive metrics (0.6 GA/game), and the 2-1 H2H win from March 2023, which the market has largely priced out. Brazil's stronger recent win rate (70% vs 60%) and home listing justify the favorite status. The draw at ~24% and Morocco win at ~17% reflect the residual uncertainty from form and head-to-head, bu