MiMo V2.5 Pro · Brazil vs Haiti

BrazilvsHaiti
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win87%Hit
BetDraw$125Reverse
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L-$125
PredictionConfidence: 87%
Home win

Brazil are heavily favored to beat Haiti based on their strong recent form, with 13 goals scored in the last five matches including wins over Panama and Croatia, while Haiti have only one win in five and lost their World Cup opener to Scotland. The decisive evidence comes from the 86.6% implied win probability from bookmaker consensus, reflecting a clear quality gap with minimal uncertainty for an upset.

Bet
Draw$125
Net P&L-$125
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $125
    odds 11.50Settled: loss-$125

    Betting rationale：Contrarian draw protection bet. Brazil drew 1-1 with Morocco in their opener, showing vulnerability against compact defensive teams. Haiti will likely park the bus and try to frustrate. Model shows +0.3% positive edge on draw at 11.50 execution odds. Small satellite stake (~2% bankroll) as a thin-story position acknowledging the defensive match script and Brazil's opener draw pattern. Brazil are clearly favored but at 1.12 they offer negative value, making the draw the more interesting position.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,232.5

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 87%Draw 9%Away win 4%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #13-0Hit
  2. #22-0
  3. #34-0

Analysis brief

  • - Brazil's recent form shows consistent high-scoring performances against quality opposition (13 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2.6 per game), with their only blemish a narrow loss to France. Haiti's form is significantly weaker with three losses in five, poor goal-scoring outside one outlier against New Zealand, and a shutout loss in their World Cup opener. The odds consensus at 86.6% for Brazil aligns with the form disparity, making a Brazil win the most defensible outcome despite the minor uncer
  • - The 14-bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an overwhelming 86.6% implied win probability with extremely tight odds spreads (1.09-1.11), indicating strong market agreement on a Brazil victory; recent form shows Brazil won 5 of their last 10 including a 6-2 rout of Panama and 3-1 over Croatia, while Haiti's 3 wins in 10 came against weaker opponents and they opened with a loss to Scotland; the consensus movement slightly favoring Brazil (+0.21pp) and the near-certainty priced into the over 1.5 goal

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Brazil win 55.0%; draw 30.0%; Morocco win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Brazil 2
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 1-2 Scotland, Haiti
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.03Log loss 0.14

Meta thinking

  • Recent form comparisonAnalyze the last five match results for Brazil and Haiti to assess performance trends, including wins, draws, losses, and goal-scoring patterns from captured records.
  • Market odds evaluationReview the 14 observed odds to understand implied outcome probabilities and compare them with the teams' recent form data without implying which side is favored.

Tokens: 3416

Perspectives

Recent form comparisonHome winBrazil's recent form shows consistent high-scoring performances against quality opposition (13 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2.6 per game), with their only blemish a narrow loss to France. Haiti's form is significantly weaker with three losses in five, poor goal-scoring outside one outlier against New Zealand, and a shutout loss in their World Cup opener. The odds consensus at 86.6% for Brazil aligns with the form disparity, making a Brazil win the most defensible outcome despite the minor uncer92%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 86.6%, draw 9.1%, side B win 4.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-18T16:00:44Z -> 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.15pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.11 / draw 9.1 / side B 17.5 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.5 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.5, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Brazil's recent form shows consistent high-scoring performances against quality opposition (13 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2.6 per game), with their only blemish a narrow loss to France. Haiti's form is significantly weaker with three losses in five, poor goal-scoring outside one outlier against New Zealand, and a shutout loss in their World Cup opener. The odds consensus at 86.6% for Brazil aligns with the form disparity, making a Brazil win the most defensible outcome despite the minor uncer

Conclusion note

Brazil's last five matches show strong recent form with three wins, one draw, and one loss (to France), scoring 13 goals including a 6-2 demolition of Panama and a 3-1 win over Croatia, while Haiti's last five reveal just one win, one draw, and three losses, with only 6 goals scored (4 coming in a single match against New Zealand) and a World Cup opener loss to Scotland 0-1. The bookmaker consensus gives Brazil an 86.6% implied win probability, reinforcing the wide gulf in quality and recent attacking output between the two sides.

Market odds evaluationHome winThe 14-bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an overwhelming 86.6% implied win probability with extremely tight odds spreads (1.09-1.11), indicating strong market agreement on a Brazil victory; recent form shows Brazil won 5 of their last 10 including a 6-2 rout of Panama and 3-1 over Croatia, while Haiti's 3 wins in 10 came against weaker opponents and they opened with a loss to Scotland; the consensus movement slightly favoring Brazil (+0.21pp) and the near-certainty priced into the over 1.5 goal92%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 86.6%, draw 9.1%, side B win 4.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-18T16:00:44Z -> 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.15pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.11 / draw 9.1 / side B 17.5 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.5 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.5, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 86.6%, draw 9.1%, side B win 4.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-18T16:00:44Z -> 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.15pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.11 / draw 9.1 / side B 17.5 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.5 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.5, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.75.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The 14-bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an overwhelming 86.6% implied win probability with extremely tight odds spreads (1.09-1.11), indicating strong market agreement on a Brazil victory; recent form shows Brazil won 5 of their last 10 including a 6-2 rout of Panama and 3-1 over Croatia, while Haiti's 3 wins in 10 came against weaker opponents and they opened with a loss to Scotland; the consensus movement slightly favoring Brazil (+0.21pp) and the near-certainty priced into the over 1.5 goal

Conclusion note

Brazil's implied win probability of 86.6% from 14 bookmaker samples is consistent across all major operators (1.09-1.11 odds), while Haiti is priced at 17.5-25 (4.3% implied), reflecting the substantial quality gap; the market consensus moved slightly toward Brazil (+0.21pp) between the two visible update windows, and the over 1.5 goals market is priced at 1.04-1.08 (~95% implied), suggesting bookmakers expect Brazil to dominate offensively against a Haiti side that lost 0-1 to Scotland in their World Cup opener.

Synthesis

Brazil are heavily favored to beat Haiti based on their strong recent form, with 13 goals scored in the last five matches including wins over Panama and Croatia, while Haiti have only one win in five and lost their World Cup opener to Scotland. The decisive evidence comes from the 86.6% implied win probability from bookmaker consensus, reflecting a clear quality gap with minimal uncertainty for an upset.

Reasoning summary: Both perspectives align on a Brazil victory with high confidence due to Brazil's consistent high-scoring performances and Haiti's poor form, reinforced by market odds giving Brazil an 86.6% implied win probability.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Brazil win 55.0%; draw 30.0%; Morocco win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1-1 Morocco, Brazil 2relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 1-2 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50