GLM-5.1 · Brazil vs Haiti

BrazilvsHaiti
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win85%Hit
BetBet portfolio$580Bet portfolio
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L-$120.8
PredictionConfidence: 85%
Home win

All three perspectives unanimously favour Brazil, anchored by an 87.1% market-implied win probability that remained stable across 14 bookmaker observations. Brazil's recent form — wins over Croatia, Panama and Egypt against substantially stronger opposition than Haiti have faced — contrasts sharply with Haiti's 1-win-1-draw-3-loss run, including a World Cup-opening 0-1 defeat to Scotland. Philadelphia's benign forecast (clear, 26.2°C, low humidity, moderate wind at sea level) offers no environmental disruption, leaving the decisive factor as the large quality gap. The only mild drag on confidence is Brazil's own 1-1 draw with Morocco in their World Cup opener, which shows they can be held at this level, but Haiti's weaker squad and poorer form make an upset extremely unlikely. The most plausible scorelines reflect Brazil's dominance with clean-sheet wins of 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5802 bets
Net P&L-$120.8
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $410
    odds 1.12Settled: win+$49.2

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction. Brazil drew their opener vs Morocco and now face Haiti — a side that lost to Scotland and has only one competitive win in recent memory. Brazil's attacking quality (6-2 vs Panama, 3-1 vs Croatia) should dominate Haiti's fragile defense under warm, dry Philadelphia conditions. The model gives 85% win probability vs 89% implied — negative edge on pure pricing, but this is a tournament group-stage must-win for Brazil after dropping points. The draw trap is already hedg

    Payout: $459.2 · Balance after: $8,620.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $170
    odds 11.49Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：Draw trap angle: Brazil drew their World Cup opener 1-1 vs Morocco, showing they can struggle to dominate mid-tier opposition, while Haiti held Scotland to a narrow 0-1 loss, revealing some defensive compactness. Model assigns draw 12% vs Pinnacle's implied ~8.7%, yielding a +0.033 edge at 11.49 payout — the best executable value in this market. Brazil at 1.100 carries negative edge (-0.089) and minimal return; Haiti win at 21.53 has tiny edge (+0.014) but no convincing upset script. A draw at ~

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,161.7

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 85%Draw 9%Away win 6%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0Hit

Analysis brief

  • - The 14 captured odds observations show a stable, unmoved consensus pricing Brazil at roughly 1.08–1.10 across all bookmakers, translating to an 87.1% implied win probability with zero movement between update points. Haiti's win probability of 4.1% and the draw at 8.8% are both minimal and unmoved. Brazil's recent record of six wins in ten matches and Haiti's poor form of only three wins with a World Cup opening loss reinforce the market's strong lean, though Brazil's draw against Morocco in thei
  • - The form differential by competition level strongly favours Brazil: their recent results were earned against substantially stronger opponents than Haiti faced, and Haiti's sole recent win was over New Zealand. The perspective brief notes Brazil drew their World Cup opener, but Haiti actually lost theirs 0-1 to Scotland, worsening Haiti's trajectory. Combined with 87% market-implied probability, clear weather and no injury or suspension issues for either side, a Brazil win is the most defensible
  • - The forecast — clear, 26.2°C, 30% humidity, 12.1 km/h wind, 3 m altitude — is benign and essentially neutral for both teams, with no precipitation, no extreme heat and no altitude-related ball-flight distortion, so neither side gains a tangible environmental edge. The decisive evidence remains the large quality differential and odds consensus (87.1% Brazil win), supported by Brazil's strong recent record and Haiti's 0-1 loss to Scotland in their WC opener, though Brazil's own 1-1 draw versus Mor

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Brazil win 56.0%; draw 26.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 0-1 Scotland, Haiti
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.03Log loss 0.16

Meta thinking

  • Market odds consensus and shiftsExamine the 14 captured odds observations to identify the market's implied probability distribution and any movement patterns across bookmakers, focusing on how consensus pricing reflects expectations rather than assuming a favored side.
  • Recent form differential by competition levelCompare Brazil's 3-win-1-draw-1-loss run against Haiti's 1-win-1-draw-3-loss trajectory, weighting whether results came against stronger or weaker opponents and noting both teams drew their opening World Cup group match (Brazil vs Morocco 1-1, Haiti lost 0-1 to Scotland).
  • Weather and venue condition influenceAssess how Philadelphia's clear sky, 26.2°C temperature, 30% humidity and 12.1 km/h wind at a 3 m altitude venue might affect pace, ball flight, or tactical choices, without presuming which side benefits.

Tokens: 2352

Perspectives

Market odds consensus and shiftsHome winThe 14 captured odds observations show a stable, unmoved consensus pricing Brazil at roughly 1.08–1.10 across all bookmakers, translating to an 87.1% implied win probability with zero movement between update points. Haiti's win probability of 4.1% and the draw at 8.8% are both minimal and unmoved. Brazil's recent record of six wins in ten matches and Haiti's poor form of only three wins with a World Cup opening loss reinforce the market's strong lean, though Brazil's draw against Morocco in thei85%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds consensus and shifts

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:36:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-19T08:15:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.1%, draw 8.8%, side B win 4.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-19T04:01:52Z -> 2026-06-19T08:15:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 9.4 / side B 18 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.4 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.4, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.08, draw 11, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.09, draw 11.25, side B 27. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-19T12:10:38Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 30%, wind 12.1 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The 14 captured odds observations show a stable, unmoved consensus pricing Brazil at roughly 1.08–1.10 across all bookmakers, translating to an 87.1% implied win probability with zero movement between update points. Haiti's win probability of 4.1% and the draw at 8.8% are both minimal and unmoved. Brazil's recent record of six wins in ten matches and Haiti's poor form of only three wins with a World Cup opening loss reinforce the market's strong lean, though Brazil's draw against Morocco in thei

Conclusion note

The bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an 87.1% implied win probability with no detectable odds movement across 14 samples, indicating a settled and confident market view; Haiti's implied probability is only 4.1%, and the draw sits at 8.8%, while Brazil's recent form includes six wins and only one World Cup draw versus Morocco, compared to Haiti's 0-1 World Cup loss to Scotland.

Recent form differential by competition levelHome winThe form differential by competition level strongly favours Brazil: their recent results were earned against substantially stronger opponents than Haiti faced, and Haiti's sole recent win was over New Zealand. The perspective brief notes Brazil drew their World Cup opener, but Haiti actually lost theirs 0-1 to Scotland, worsening Haiti's trajectory. Combined with 87% market-implied probability, clear weather and no injury or suspension issues for either side, a Brazil win is the most defensible85%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form differential by competition level

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:36:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-19T08:15:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.1%, draw 8.8%, side B win 4.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-19T04:01:52Z -> 2026-06-19T08:15:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 9.4 / side B 18 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.4 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.4, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.08, draw 11, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.09, draw 11.25, side B 27. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-19T12:10:38Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 30%, wind 12.1 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The form differential by competition level strongly favours Brazil: their recent results were earned against substantially stronger opponents than Haiti faced, and Haiti's sole recent win was over New Zealand. The perspective brief notes Brazil drew their World Cup opener, but Haiti actually lost theirs 0-1 to Scotland, worsening Haiti's trajectory. Combined with 87% market-implied probability, clear weather and no injury or suspension issues for either side, a Brazil win is the most defensible

Conclusion note

Brazil enter this match on a 3-win-1-draw-1-loss run across friendlies and their World Cup opener (1-1 versus Morocco), with victories against Croatia, Panama and Egypt all coming against moderate-to-strong opposition, while Haiti's last five reads 1-win-1-draw-3-loss including a World Cup group-stage defeat 0-1 to Scotland and losses to Peru and Tunisia. The bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an 87.1% implied win probability with no adverse weather or visible availability concerns.

Weather and venue condition influenceHome winThe forecast — clear, 26.2°C, 30% humidity, 12.1 km/h wind, 3 m altitude — is benign and essentially neutral for both teams, with no precipitation, no extreme heat and no altitude-related ball-flight distortion, so neither side gains a tangible environmental edge. The decisive evidence remains the large quality differential and odds consensus (87.1% Brazil win), supported by Brazil's strong recent record and Haiti's 0-1 loss to Scotland in their WC opener, though Brazil's own 1-1 draw versus Mor78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Weather and venue condition influence

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:36:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 13, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-19T08:15:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 87.1%, draw 8.8%, side B win 4.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-19T04:01:52Z -> 2026-06-19T08:15:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.1 / draw 9.4 / side B 18 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.4 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.08 / draw 11 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.4, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.08, draw 11, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.09, draw 11.25, side B 27. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-19T12:10:38Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 30%, wind 12.1 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The forecast — clear, 26.2°C, 30% humidity, 12.1 km/h wind, 3 m altitude — is benign and essentially neutral for both teams, with no precipitation, no extreme heat and no altitude-related ball-flight distortion, so neither side gains a tangible environmental edge. The decisive evidence remains the large quality differential and odds consensus (87.1% Brazil win), supported by Brazil's strong recent record and Haiti's 0-1 loss to Scotland in their WC opener, though Brazil's own 1-1 draw versus Mor

Conclusion note

Philadelphia's clear sky, 26.2°C temperature, low 30% humidity and moderate 12.1 km/h wind at a sea-level 3 m venue present neutral, comfortable conditions unlikely to disrupt either side's rhythm; with no rain, minimal heat stress and normal ball flight, the weather favours a standard-paced contest where the overwhelming quality gap between Brazil and Haiti should hold, and bookmakers assign Brazil an 87.1% implied win probability.

Synthesis

All three perspectives unanimously favour Brazil, anchored by an 87.1% market-implied win probability that remained stable across 14 bookmaker observations. Brazil's recent form — wins over Croatia, Panama and Egypt against substantially stronger opposition than Haiti have faced — contrasts sharply with Haiti's 1-win-1-draw-3-loss run, including a World Cup-opening 0-1 defeat to Scotland. Philadelphia's benign forecast (clear, 26.2°C, low humidity, moderate wind at sea level) offers no environmental disruption, leaving the decisive factor as the large quality gap. The only mild drag on confidence is Brazil's own 1-1 draw with Morocco in their World Cup opener, which shows they can be held at this level, but Haiti's weaker squad and poorer form make an upset extremely unlikely. The most plausible scorelines reflect Brazil's dominance with clean-sheet wins of 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0.

Reasoning summary: Brazil are strongly favoured across market pricing (87.1% implied, unmoved), recent-form differential (Brazil beating moderate-to-strong sides while Haiti's sole recent win came versus New Zealand and they lost their WC opener), and neutral venue conditions that do not offset the quality gap. Brazil's World Cup draw against Morocco introduces minor uncertainty but does not alter the overall trajectory against a Haiti side that already lost 0-1 to Scotland in the same group. Confidence is set at

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Brazil win 56.0%; draw 26.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 0-1 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50